Counteracting the climate effects of volcanic eruptions using short-lived greenhouse gases

A large volcanic eruption might constitute a climate emergency, significantly altering global temperature and precipitation for several years. Major future eruptions will occur, but their size or timing cannot be predicted. We show, for the first time, that it may be possible to counteract these climate effects through deliberate emissions of short-lived greenhouse gases, dampening the abrupt impact of an eruption. We estimate an emission pathway countering a hypothetical eruption 3 times the size of Mount Pinatubo in 1991. We use a global climate model to evaluate global and regional responses to the eruption, with and without counteremissions. We then raise practical, financial, and ethical questions related to such a strategy. Unlike the more commonly discussed geoengineering to mitigate warming from long-lived greenhouse gases, designed emissions to counter temporary cooling would not have the disadvantage of needing to be sustained over long periods. Nevertheless, implementation would still face significant challenges

IPCC factsheet : timeline – highlights of IPCC history

This document provides an overview of the significant milestones in the history of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Established in 1988, the IPCC has played a pivotal role in advancing the understanding of climate change and its impacts. The timeline highlights key events, such as the release of major assessment reports, significant scientific breakthroughs, and landmark international agreements influenced by IPCC findings. It also covers the evolution of the organization's structure, its contributions to global climate policy, and the recognition it has received for its work, including the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. This document serves as a concise reference for understanding the IPCC's role in shaping climate discourse and policy over the decades

Climate Change 2023 : Synthesis report : A report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

This Synthesis Report (SYR) concludes the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The SYR synthesizes and integrates materials contained within the three Working Groups Assessment Reports and the Special Reports contributing to the AR6. It addresses a broad range of policy-relevant but policy-neutral questions approved by the Panel

Implications of "peak oil" for atmospheric CO2 and climate

Unconstrained CO2 emission from fossil fuel burning has been the dominant cause of observed anthropogenic global warming. The amounts of "proven" and potential fossil fuel reserves are uncertain and debated. Regardless of the true values, society has flexibility in the degree to which it chooses to exploit these reserves, especially unconventional fossil fuels and those located in extreme or pristine environments. If conventional oil production peaks within the next few decades, it may have a large effect on future atmospheric CO2 and climate change, depending upon subsequent energy choices. Assuming that proven oil and gas reserves do not greatly exceed estimates of the Energy Information Administration, and recent trends are toward lower estimates, we show that it is feasible to keep atmospheric CO2 from exceeding about 450 ppm by 2100, provided that emissions from coal, unconventional fossil fuels, and land use are constrained. Coal-fired power plants without sequestration must be phased out before mid-century to achieve this CO2 limit. It is also important to "stretch" conventional oil reserves via energy conservation and efficiency, thus averting strong pressures to extract liquid fuels from coal or unconventional fossil fuels while clean technologies are being developed for the era "beyond fossil fuels". We argue that a rising price on carbon emissions is needed to discourage conversion of the vast fossil resources into usable reserves, and to keep CO2 beneath the 450 ppm ceiling.Comment: (22 pages, 7 figures; final version accepted by Global Biogeochemical Cycles

Impact of rising sea levels on Australian fur seals

Global warming is leading to many unprecedented changes in the ocean-climate system. Sea levels are rising at an increasing rate and are amplifying the impact of storm surges along coastlines. As variability in the timing and strength of storm surges has been shown to affect pup mortality in the Australian fur seal (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus), there is a need to identify the potential impacts of increased sea level and storm surges on the breeding areas of this important marine predator in Bass Strait, south-eastern Australia. Using high-resolution aerial photography and topographic data, the present study assessed the impacts of future inundation levels on both current and potential breeding habitats at each colony. Inundation from storm surges, based on a predicted rise in sea level, was modeled at each colony from 2012 to 2100. As sea level increases, progressively less severe storm surge conditions will be required to exceed current inundation levels and, thus, have the potential for greater impacts on pup mortality at Australian fur seal colonies. The results of the present study indicate that by 2100, a 1-in-10 year storm will inundate more habitat on average than a present-day 1-in-100 year storm. The study highlights the site-specific nature of storm surge impacts, and in particular the importance of local colony topography and surrounding bathymetry with small, low-lying colonies impacted the most. An increased severity of storm surges will result in either an increase in pup mortality rates associated with storm surges, or the dispersal of individuals to higher ground and/or new colonies

Could a potential Anthropocene mass extinction define a new geological period?

A key aspect of the current debate about the Anthropocene focuses on defining a new geological epoch. Features of the Anthropocene include a biodiversity crisis with the potential to reach ‘mass extinction’ status alongside increasing global CO₂ and temperature. Previous geological boundaries associated with mass extinctions, rises in atmospheric CO₂ and rises in global temperature are more usually associated with transitions between geological periods. The current rapid increase in species extinctions suggest that a new mass extinction event is most likely imminent in the near-term future. Although CO₂ levels are currently low in comparison with the rest of the Phanerozoic, they are rising rapidly along with global temperatures. This suggests that defining the Anthropocene as a new geological period, rather than a new epoch, may be more consistent with previous geological boundaries in the Phanerozoic

Increasing dissimilarity of water chemical compositions in a warmer climate

Understanding variability patterns of biogeochemical conditions in water is a key issue for water management strategies. Here a unique homogeneous data set of 1041 Swedish boreal lakes, sampled during three lake inventories along an 8 degrees latitudinal temperature gradient, revealed a systematic increase in the variability of the water chemical composition between lakes with increasing temperatures. The variability pattern was consistent on a spatial and temporal scale and became especially apparent for water chemical variables showing an in-lake biological process-driven seasonality, such as nitrogen, pH, silica, and organic carbon. The degree of dissimilarity in the chemical composition between lakes was well related to the duration of the main growing and runoff season (D-T > 0), both on a spatial scale (R-2 = 0.57-0.79, P < 0.05) and a temporal scale (R-2 = 0.99, P < 0.05). It is suggested that D-T > 0 is a very suitable proxy to explain biogeochemical variability patterns between lakes. According to this study, a further temperature increase will result in an increased biogeochemical dissimilarity between lakes

On the suitability of North Brazil Current transport estimates for monitoring basin-scale AMOC changes

The North Brazil Current (NBC) constitutes a bottleneck for the mean northward return flow of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the tropical South Atlantic. Previous studies suggested a link between interannual to multidecadal NBC and AMOC transport variability and proposed to use NBC observations as an index for the AMOC. Here we use a set of hindcast, sensitivity, and perturbation experiments performed within a hierarchy of ocean general circulation models to show that decadal to multidecadal buoyancy-forced changes in the basin-scale AMOC transport indeed manifest themselves in the NBC. The relation is, however, masked by a strong interannual to decadal wind-driven gyre variability of the NBC. While questioning the NBC transport as a direct index for the AMOC, the results support its potential merit for an AMOC monitoring system, provided that the wind-driven circulation variability is properly accounted for