New Completeness Methods for Estimating Exoplanet Discoveries by Direct Detection

We report new methods for evaluating realistic observing programs that search stars for planets by direct imaging, where observations are selected from an optimized star list, and where stars can be observed multiple times. We show how these methods bring critical insight into the design of the mission & its instruments. These methods provide an estimate of the outcome of the observing program: the probability distribution of discoveries (detection and/or characterization), & an estimate of the occurrence rate of planets (eta). We show that these parameters can be accurately estimated from a single mission simulation, without the need for a complete Monte Carlo mission simulation, & we prove the accuracy of this new approach. Our methods provide the tools to define a mission for a particular science goal, for example defined by the expected number of discoveries and its confidence level. We detail how an optimized star list can be built & how successive observations can be selected. Our approach also provides other critical mission attributes, such as the number of stars expected to be searched, & the probability of zero discoveries. Because these attributes depend strongly on the mission scale, our methods are directly applicable to the design of such future missions & provide guidance to the mission & instrument design based on scientific performance. We illustrate our new methods with practical calculations & exploratory design reference missions for JWST operating with a distant starshade to reduce scattered and diffracted starlight on the focal plane. We estimate that 5 habitable Earth-mass planets would be discovered & characterized with spectroscopy, with a probability of 0 discoveries of 0.004, assuming a small fraction of JWST observing time (7%), eta=0.3, and 70 observing visits, limited by starshade fuel.Comment: 27 pages, 4 figures, 6 tables, accepted for publication by Ap

A comparison of coaxial and conventional rotor performance

The performance of a coaxial rotor in hover, in steady forward flight, and in level, coordinated turns is contrasted with that of an equivalent, conventional rotor with the same overall solidity, number of blades, and blade aerodynamic properties. Brown's vorticity transport model is used to calculate the profile, induced, and parasite contributions to the overall power consumed by the two systems, and the highly resolved representation of the rotor wake that is produced by the model is used to relate the observed differences in the performance of the two systems to the structures of their respective wakes. In all flight conditions, all else being equal, the coaxial system requires less induced power than the conventional system. In hover, the conventional rotor consumes increasingly more induced power than the coaxial rotor as thrust is increased. In forward flight, the relative advantage of the coaxial configuration is particularly evident at pretransitional advance ratios. In turning flight, the benefits of the coaxial rotor are seen at all load factors. The beneficial properties of the coaxial rotor in forward flight and maneuver, as far as induced power is concerned, are a subtle effect of rotor-wake interaction and result principally from differences between the two types of rotor in the character and strength of the localized interaction between the developing supervortices and the highly loaded blade-tips at the lateral extremities of the rotor. In hover, the increased axial convection rate of the tip vortices appears to result in a favorable redistribution of the loading slightly inboard of the tip of the upper rotor of the coaxial system

Entheogens in Christian Art: Wasson, Allegro and the Psychedelic Gospels

In light of new historical evidence regarding ethnomycologist R. Gordon Wasson’s correspondence with art historian Erwin Panofsky, this article provides an in-depth analysis of the presence of entheogenic mushroom images in Christian art within the context of the controversy between Wasson and philologist John Marco Allegro over the identification of a Garden of Eden fresco in the 12th century Chapel of Plaincourault in France. It reveals a compelling financial motive for Wasson’s refusal to acknowledge that this fresco represents Amanita muscaria, as well as for Wasson’s reluctance to pursue his hypothesis regarding the entheogenic origins of religion into Christian art and artifacts. While Wasson’s view – that the presence of psychoactive mushrooms in the Near and Middle East ended around 1000 BCE – prevailed and stymied research on entheogens in Christianity for decades, a new generation of 21st century researchers has documented growing evidence of A. muscaria and psilocybin-containing mushrooms in Christian art, consistent with ethnobotanist Giorgio Samorini’s typology of mushroom trees. This article presents original photographs, taken during fieldwork at churches and cathedrals throughout Europe and the Middle East, that confirm the presence of entheogenic mushrooms in Christian art: in frescoes, illuminated manuscripts, mosaics, sculptures, and stained glass windows. Based on this iconic evidence, the article proposes a psychedelic gospels theory and addresses critiques of this theory by art historians, ardent advocates, medieval historians, and conservative Catholics. It calls for the establishment of an Interdisciplinary Committee on the Psychedelic Gospels to independently evaluate the growing body of evidence of entheogenic mushrooms in Christian art in order to resolve a controversial question regarding the possible role of entheogens in the history and origins of Christianity

The properties of dynamically ejected runaway and hyper-runaway stars

Runaway stars are stars observed to have large peculiar velocities. Two mechanisms are thought to contribute to the ejection of runaway stars, both involve binarity (or higher multiplicity). In the binary supernova scenario a runaway star receives its velocity when its binary massive companion explodes as a supernova (SN). In the alternative dynamical ejection scenario, runaway stars are formed through gravitational interactions between stars and binaries in dense, compact clusters or cluster cores. Here we study the ejection scenario. We make use of extensive N-body simulations of massive clusters, as well as analytic arguments, in order to to characterize the expected ejection velocity distribution of runaways stars. We find the ejection velocity distribution of the fastest runaways (>~80 km s^-1) depends on the binary distribution in the cluster, consistent with our analytic toy model, whereas the distribution of lower velocity runaways appears independent of the binaries properties. For a realistic log constant distribution of binary separations, we find the velocity distribution to follow a simple power law; Gamma(v) goes like v^(-8/3) for the high velocity runaways and v^(-3/2) for the low velocity ones. We calculate the total expected ejection rates of runaway stars from our simulated massive clusters and explore their mass function and their binarity. The mass function of runaway stars is biased towards high masses, and depends strongly on their velocity. The binarity of runaways is a decreasing function of their ejection velocity, with no binaries expected to be ejected with v>150 km s^-1. We also find that hyper-runaways with velocities of hundreds of km s^-1 can be dynamically ejected from stellar clusters, but only at very low rates, which cannot account for a significant fraction of the observed population of hyper-velocity stars in the Galactic halo.Comment: Now matching published ApJ versio

The ELM Survey. I. A Complete Sample of Extremely Low Mass White Dwarfs

We analyze radial velocity observations of the 12 extremely low-mass <0.25 Msol white dwarfs (WDs) in the MMT Hypervelocity Star Survey. Eleven of the 12 WDs are binaries with orbital periods shorter than 14 hours; the one non-variable WD is possibly a pole-on system among our non-kinematically selected targets. Our sample is unique: it is complete in a well-defined range of apparent magnitude and color. The orbital mass functions imply that the unseen companions are most likely other WDs, although neutron star companions cannot be excluded. Six of the 11 systems with orbital solutions will merge within a Hubble time due to the loss of angular momentum through gravitational wave radiation. The quickest merger is J0923+3028, a g=15.7 ELM WD binary with a 1.08 hr orbital period and a <130 Myr merger time. The chance of a supernova Ia event among our ELM WDs is only 1%-7%, however. Three binary systems (J0755+4906, J1233+1602, and J2119-0018) have extreme mass ratios and will most likely form stable mass-transfer AM CVn systems. Two of these objects, SDSS J1233+1602 and J2119-0018, are the lowest surface gravity WDs ever found; both show Ca II absorption likely from accretion of circumbinary material. We predict that at least one of our WDs is an eclipsing detached double WD system, important for constraining helium core WD models.Comment: ApJ, in pres

Plato's Socrates and his Conception of Philosophy

This is a study of Plato's use of the character Socrates to model what philosophy is. The study focuses on the Apology, and finds that philosophy there is the love of wisdom, where wisdom is expertise about how to live, of the sort that only gods can fully have, and where Socrates loves wisdom in three ways, first by honoring wisdom as the gods' possession, testing human claims to it, second by pursuing wisdom, examining himself as he examines others, to achieve a more well justified set of beliefs about how to live, and third by trying to live wisely, insofar as he can, which includes exhorting others to care about living wisely than anything else. The essay also includes some suggestions about how Plato criticizes and revises this model of philosophy outside the Apology

The Experience of an Intermediary in a Complex Initiative: The Urban Health Initiative's National Program Office

Why would a foundation use an intermediary to manage a multi-site initative? What are the important aspects of the relationships among a foundation, intermediary and local sites? How has The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation's use of an intermediary played out during the life of a ten-year initiative