Green shoots in the euro area : a real time measure

We show that an extension of the Markov-switching dynamic factor models that accounts for the speci cities of the day to day monitoring of economic developments such as ragged edges, mixed frequencies and data revisions is a good tool to forecast the Euro area recessions in real time. We provide examples that show the nonlinear nature of the relations between data revisions, point forecasts and forecast uncertainty. According to our empirical results, we think that the real time probabilities of recession are an appropriate statistic to capture what the press call green shoot

The Independent Existence: A Look at Florida\u27s Wrongful Death Statute in the Wake of Dobbs and Changing State Abortion Laws.

Following the Supreme Court’s overturning of the federally mandated fundamental right to abortion founded in Roe1 and Casey,2 the decision of whether a woman may terminate a pregnancy has returned to the states with the current Court’s implementation of Dobbs v. Jackson Woman’s Health.3 In Florida, the state government decided to reduce the gestational age for termination to fifteen weeks in July 2022, and further reduced the gestational age to six weeks in April 2023 provided that the Florida Supreme Court upholds the fifteen week ban.4 This note operates under the fifteen week standard as the six week ban is not yet effective. While the executive and legislative branches have decided to reduce the gestational age of termination to fifteen weeks, the state still refuses to allow for a parent’s recovery for the wrongful death of a fetus, holding that a fetus is not a person within the scope of the wrongful death act.5 This creates a congruity issue in the law surrounding fetuses and fetal rights in the states. This note argues that Florida should resolve the issue of legal inconsistency created through the fetal laws of abortion, feticide, and fetal wrongful death by abrogating the Born Alive Rule where a parent could not recover for the death of a fetus unless the fetus was born alive.6 Now that states can once again determine the issue of abortion, Florida should allow for the recovery for the tortious death of a fetus. If Florida allows for the wrongful death of a fetus, this will not give legal personhood rights to the fetus, but rather would allow for a greater understanding of parental rights for their fetus under the theory of subjective fetal personhood. The state has shown that it wishes to protect the interests of the potential future life and allowing for the recovery for the wrongful death of a fetus would further promote this interest

John Hume : origins of a Derry icon 1960-74

John Hume held executive office for just five months out of a political career lasting more than 30 years. Yet he became one of the most influential politicians of the past 50 years and was instrumental in changing the course of politics not just in Northern Ireland, but also Dublin, London and Washington. This thesis examines Hume’s political origins from his earliest appearances in public life in the 1960s and how he rejected much of the received political ideology which endured for 40 years after the Partition of Ireland. It explores how Hume synthesised and entwined various strands of fresh thought and formed a distinctive approach which he made his own. It explains his rise from relative obscurity using a thematic approach. A chapter explores the “hidden history” of Hume’s Derry and its formative effect on him. Another chapter details Hume’s efforts to supplant the Nationalist Party and, along with five others, to create a new political force to further his distinctive approach to the Irish question. The third chapter examines in detail Hume’s efforts to reformulate the Northern Ireland policy of the Irish government and a fourth details his efforts to harness the power of the US. Hume’s troubled and arguably counter-productive relations with unionists in Northern Ireland are explored in chapter five and an explanation is offered as to why Hume failed to convince so many unionists of his case. It plots the changes in Hume’s approach which occurred in response to the eruption of the Troubles. The final chapter examines Hume’s relations with the British government and cites his insistence that London, as a sovereign power, involve itself fully in the search for a settlement. Throughout, constant reference is made to Hume’s Derry origins and the centrality of the city’s history and politics in his political make up