Monetary Policy Surprises and the Expectations Hypothesis at the Short End of the Yield Curve

We test the expectations hypothesis by analyzing changes in three month T-Bill rates (TB3) after FOMC meetings. By estimating the revisions in expectations of future overnight rates, we find a one-to-one relationship between changes in TB3 and path revisions.Expectations Hypothesis, Policy Path Revisions

Asymmetric Response to Monetary Policy Surprises at the Long-End of the Yield Curve

This paper provides a dynamic analysis of the responsiveness of asset markets to monetary policy path revisions. In an era of increased transparency and gradualism in policy making, one might expect an increased response to path revisions in asset markets as the policy actions become more predictable over longer horizons. Using federal funds futures contracts to extract near-term path revisions, we find that the responsiveness of Treasury securities to path revisions is significantly asymmetric, increasing during cycles of tightenings and declining during easings. This is consistent with the earlier literature that documents asymmetric effects of monetary policy on output.Asymmetric monetary policy; yield curve; federal funds futures

Provision of liquidity through the primary credit facility during the financial crisis: a structural analysis

Professors Erhan Artuç and Selva Demiralp of Koç University, Turkey, investigate whether changes to the Federal Reserve’s discount window borrowing facility represent a shift in how the nation’s central bank traditionally provided liquidity through the primary credit facility as well as whether the Fed would benefit from retaining these changes indefinitely. Presented at "Central Bank Liquidity Tools and Perspectives on Regulatory Reform" a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, February 19-20, 2009.Banks and banking, Central ; Liquidity (Economics) ; Bank liquidity ; Credit ; Discount window ; Bank reserves

Money and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

The transmission mechanism of monetary policy has received extensive treatment in the macroeconomic literature. Most models currently used for macroeconomic analysis exclude money or else model money demand as entirely endogenous. Nevertheless, academic research and many textbooks continue to use the money multiplier concept in discussions of money. We explore the institutional structure of the transmission mechanism beginning with open market operations through to money and loans to document that the mechanism does not work through the standard multiplier model or the bank lending channel. Our analysis, however, does not reflect on the existence of a broader credit channelMonetary transmission mechanism, money multiplier, lending channel

The announcement effect: evidence from open market desk data

Paper for a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York entitled Financial Innovation and Monetary TransmissionOpen market operations ; Monetary policy ; Federal Open Market Committee ; Federal funds market (United States)

Anticipation of Monetary Policy and Open Market Operations

Central banking transparency is now a topic of great interest, but its impact on the implementation of monetary policy has not been studied. This paper documents that anticipated changes in the target federal funds rate complicate open market operations. We provide theoretical and empirical evidence on the behavior of banks and the Open Market Trading Desk. We find a significant shift in demand for funds ahead of expected target rate changes and that the Desk only incompletely accommodates this shift in demand. This anticipation effect, however, does not materially affect other markets.

Task-Based Effectiveness of Basic Visualizations

Visualizations of tabular data are widely used; understanding their effectiveness in different task and data contexts is fundamental to scaling their impact. However, little is known about how basic tabular data visualizations perform across varying data analysis tasks and data attribute types. In this paper, we report results from a crowdsourced experiment to evaluate the effectiveness of five visualization types --- Table, Line Chart, Bar Chart, Scatterplot, and Pie Chart --- across ten common data analysis tasks and three data attribute types using two real-world datasets. We found the effectiveness of these visualization types significantly varies across task and data attribute types, suggesting that visualization design would benefit from considering context dependent effectiveness. Based on our findings, we derive recommendations on which visualizations to choose based on different tasks. We finally train a decision tree on the data we collected to drive a recommender, showcasing how to effectively engineer experimental user data into practical visualization systems