Modelli epidemiologici semplici e complessi: il caso della meningite.

Il lavoro affronta alcuni problemi legati alla modellizzazione matematica della meninigite meningoccica, il tipo di meningite maggiormente responsabile di epidemie nel mondo. Il primo capitolo presenta una panoramica dei modelli fondamentali delle malattie infettive, individuandone le caratteristiche generali e studiando alcuni problemi specifici relativi all'eterogeneità delle popolazioni; nel secondo capitolo si presenta una sintesi della letteratura epidemiologica sulla meningite meningococcica; il terzo capitolo riporta alcune elaborazioni elementari sui dati di notifica italiani del periodo 1994-2006, con relativa discussione; nel quarto capitolo viene rassegnata criticamente la letteratura matematica relativa al meningococco; questa letteratura sorprendentemente non discute uno dei tratti fondamentali della meningite, ossia un'epidemiologia complessa caratterizzata dalla coesistenza di diversi ceppi patogeni cross-immunizzanti che coesistono a loro volta con ceppi non patogeni ma cross-immunizzanti rispetto ai ceppi patogeni. Pertanto nel quinto capitolo vengono a) discusse criticamente le carenze dei modelli esistenti e b) formulati e studiati alcuni modelli in grado di spiegare i meccanismi che permettono la coesistenza di diversi serogruppi; il sesto capitolo mostra una parametrizzazione realistica del modello più promettente e le relative simulazioni, che indicano come la strutturazione in età di una popolazione può giustificare la coesistenza tra diversi tipi e serogruppi di batteri Neisseria. Simple versus complex epidemiological models: the case of meningitis The present work deals with some aspects of the mathematical modeling of meningococcal meningitis, the most important form of meningitis worldwide. The first chapter presents a review of the fundamental epidemiological models, underlines their general features and studies the problem of population diversity. In the second chapter, we summarize the scientific literature on the epidemiology of meningococcal meningitis. The third chapter shows some elementary analysis and a discussion of the italian notification data from the period 1994-2006. In the fourth chapter we summarize and critically review the mathematical literature on the meningococcus; it is surprising to find that none of the available models discusses one of the most important features of the complex meningococcal epidemiology: the coexistence among different, mutually exclusive bacterial strains, and between Neisseria meningitidis and lactamica. For this reason, in the fifth chapter we: a) critically discuss the existing models of coexistence and b) formulate and analyze some models which are able to explain the mechanisms allowing for serogroup coexistence. The sixth chapter shows a realistic parametrization of the most promising model and the relative dynamical simulations, which show that age-structured population may justify the coexistence among different types and serogroups of the bacteria of the genus Neisseria

Transmission dynamics of the ongoing chikungunya outbreak in Central Italy. From coastal areas to the metropolitan city of Rome, summer 2017

A large chikungunya outbreak is ongoing in Italy, with a main cluster in the Anzio coastal municipality. With preliminary epidemiological data, and a transmission model using mosquito abundance and biting rates, we estimated the basic reproduction number R0 at 2.07 (95% credible interval: 1.47–2.59) and the first case importation between 21 May and 18 June 2017. Outbreak risk was higher in coastal/rural sites than urban ones. Novel transmission foci could occur up to mid-November

Seismotectonics of the active thrust front in southwestern Sicily: hints on the Belice and Selinunte seismogenic sources

We present a seismotectonic model of the active thrust front in western Sicily, which includes the area hit by the 1968 Belice earthquake sequence. The ~40 km long South-WEstern Sicilian Thrust (SWEST) is formed by two aligned albeit non-parallel fault arrays, the Granitola-Castelevetrano Thrust System (GCTS) in the west and the Partanna- Poggioreale Thrust System (PPTS) in the east. The ~NE-SW trending, NW-dipping GCTS straddles from the Pelagian coastline to Castelvetrano, is ~18 km long and composed of two segments, with the northern, ~12 km long one showing geodetic and geologic evidence of active deformation (Barreca et al., 2014). The segment is marked by a sharp gradient in Differential SAR interferometry (DinSAR and STAMPs) and GPS velocity fields. Geologic evidence include an up to 60 m high, and up to 15° steep scarp, which is the fore-limb of a broad fold involving Lower Pleistocene shore calcarenites, and cm-scale reverse displacement of an ancient road dated as early Bronze-Hellenistic age. Inversion of fault slip-lineation data from structures displacing the archaeological remains yields a ~N110°E shortening axis, consistent with the geodetic shortening direction estimated from GPS differential velocities. The ~ENE-WSW trending PPTS stretches from Partanna to the macro-seismic area of the 1968 earthquake sequence and is composed of two ~10 km long segments limited by relay ramps. Although geologic and geodetic evidence of deformation are less clear than for the GCTS, we nonetheless observe a gradient in interferometry data for the western segment, and evidence of slow deformation (creep?) in historical to recent (last ~400 yr?) man-made structures. Integration of geologic, geodetic and seismology data suggests the active folds and thrusts are the uppermost expression of steep (45°) crustal ramps (Monaco et al., 1996) which upthrust the Saccense platform at depth. Based on macroseismic and seismological evidence (Monaco et al., 1996), we contend that the PPTS was partly activated during the 1968 sequence, and that rupture stopped at the junction with the GCTS. The current geodetic strain accumulation on the GCTS, on the other hand, suggests that the fault array has been significantly loaded, and that its last important co-seismic event could have been caused the 4th–5th century A.D. destruction of Selinunte (Bottari et al., 2009)

Geodetic and geological evidence of active tectonics in south-westernSicily (Italy)

Integrated geological, geodetic and marine geophysical data provide evidence of active deformation insouth-western Sicily, in an area spatially coincident with the macroseismic zone of the destructive 1968Belice earthquake sequence. Even though the sequence represents the strongest seismic event recordedin Western Sicily in historical times, focal solutions provided by different authors are inconclusive onpossible faulting mechanism, which ranges from thrusting to transpression, and the seismogenic sourceis still undefined. Interferometric (DInSAR) observations reveal a differential ground motion on a SW–NEalignment between Campobello di Mazara and Castelvetrano (CCA), located just west of the maximummacroseismic sector. In addition, new GPS campaign-mode data acquired across the CCA alignment doc-uments NW–SE contractional strain accumulation. Morphostructural analysis allowed to associate thealignment detected through geodetic measurements with a topographic offset of Pleistocene marine sed-iments. The on-land data were complemented by new high-resolution marine geophysical surveys, whichindicate recent contraction on the offshore extension of the CCA alignment. The discovery of archaeo-logical remains displaced by a thrust fault associated with the alignment provided the first likely surfaceevidence of coseismic and/or aseismic deformation related to a seismogenic source in the area. Resultsof the integrated study supports the contention that oblique thrusting and folding in response to NW–SEoriented contraction is still active. Although we are not able to associate the CCA alignment to the 1968seismic sequence or to the historical earthquakes that destroyed the ancient Greek city of Selinunte,located on the nearby coastline, our result must be incorporated in the seismic hazard evaluation of thisdensely populated area of Sicily

INTRA-CULTIVAR DIVERSITY IN SOUTHERN ITALY OLIVE CULTIVARS DEPICTED BY MORPHOLOGICAL TRAITS AND SSR MARKERS

In this study, SSR analysis was performed on a large number of putative clones of the main olive cultivars from two Italian regions, Sicily and Calabria, in order to study the genetic relatedness, and to detect any degree of genetic diversity, which can be used to unambiguously identify possible superior clones. These putative clones have been collected and observed in the last ten years, following an extensive investigation carried out in traditional olive growing areas, thanks to the reports of farmers, millers, technician, growers and nurseries. The set of microsatellite (SSR) markers used allowed the detection of the genetic diversity, resulting from somatic mutation, indicating the presence of polyclonal cultivars, or having gametic origin, indicating a seedling origin of many clones, which thus share sibling relationships. The presence of superior clones or superior genotypes is discussed

COVID 19 Project

https://scholarworks.sjsu.edu/pandemic-pandemonium-prompts/1004/thumbnail.jp

Continuing Education and Social Work Education

Growth of continuing education programs is noted. Differences between continuing education and traditional education are examined. Author argues that continuing education approaches are appropriate for social work education and should be made an integral part of programs for the preparation of social workers

“Rimarrà solo, attorno, un lieve odore di bruciato”: la distruzione dell’esperienza in Quaderno proibito di Alba de Céspedes

In this essay, using Agamben work on The destruction of experience as a frame, I analyse the role that the acquisition of life experience plays in one of the main works of Alba de Cespedes, Quaderno proibito. I will show how the protagonist’s point of view works as a bridge between traditional experience, which became unattainable in contemporary societies, and a modern one, and I will show how the fascination that the book still has on readers is mainly related to the description of the process of destruction of the traditional form of experience

Review of \u3cem\u3eDiminishing Welfare: A Cross National Study of Social Provision.\u3c/em\u3e Gertrude Schaffner Goldberg and Marguerite Rosenthal (Eds.). Reviewed by Charles Guzzetta.

Book review of Gertrude Schaffner Goldberg and Marguerite Rosenthal (Eds.), Diminishing Welfare: A Cross National Study of Social Provision. Westport, CT: Auburn House, 2002. $28.00 paperback