奖励型众筹项目融资影响因素的实证分析

选取奖励型众筹作为研究对象,对影响奖励型众筹成功的因素如目标筹资金额、最低投资额、支持数、评论数、分享数、关注数等提出设想,并选取国内\"众筹网\"的样本数据进行回归分析,以此验证对影响因素的设想。根据实证分析结果,指出奖励型众筹适合有创意、吸引眼球的小型项目,发起人应设定合理的目标筹资金额,在项目筹资期间应积极与支持者及潜在支持者互动,同时有效利用社交平台提高项目的传播率

“一带一路”建设化解产能过剩的实证研究——以非金属矿物制品业为例

在我国经济快速发展阶段,由于投资过度导致钢铁、水泥、平板玻璃、有色金属、船舶等行业出现严重产能过剩。自\"一带一路\"提出以来,人们普遍认为其对化解我国产能过剩具有重要意义。通过对非金属矿物制品业现状以及\"一带一路\"重点项目进行分析,并建立向量自回归模型,使用脉冲响应分析方法探究非金属矿物制品出口、对外直接投资(非金融类)、对外承包工程营业额、建筑材料和非金属矿物购进价格指数对非金属矿物制品业产成品库存的影响,可以得出\"一带一路\"能够有效化解非金属矿物行业产能过剩的结论。国家社会科学基金项目“社会网络变迁与普惠金融发展研究”(批准号18BJL079)的阶段性研究成

中国城市商业银行资本充足率的影响因素分析--基于6家上市城市商业银行的数据

选取6家上市城市商业银行的面板数据,对资本充足率的影响因素进行分析。研究发现,权益增速对资本充足率增速的解释作用较好,其次是利润增速和不良贷款率增速,两者与资本充足率增速的变动方向都是相反的。解释作用较差的是贷款增速,而资产增速与资本充足率增速的关系不确定。据此提出提高城市商业银行资本充足率的对策,包括通过增发股票和发行长期次级债券等方式补充资本金,以及通过调整资产组合、改善资产结构、减少不良贷款和加强风险管理团队的建设等措施降低风险加权资产总量

The Development of Financial Market and the Efficiency of Household's Financial Portfolio

居民家庭金融资产配置效率指居民家庭配置不同种类金融产品的有效性,可以用某种金融资产的收益率与其标准差的比值来衡量。运用1992-2015年的24个样本,通过小样本最优预测模型及小样本格兰杰因果关系检验的方法,对我国居民家庭金融资产配置效率与金融市场发展的关联性进行实证分析。发现每种金融资产的配置效率与其所在金融市场的发展程度之间均存在着相互影响、互为因果的关联性关系。The household's financial asset allocation efficiency can be calculated by the ratio that takes into account the yield rate and the standard deviation.Due to the limit data from 1992 to 2015,the paper uses finite sample analysis method to study the relation between the efficiency of household's financial portfolio and the development of financial market.It finds that there is a mutual influence between the efficiency of each kind of financial asset and the development of correspondent financial market

济南市城区大气挥发性有机物污染特征及来源

为研究济南市城区环境空气挥发性有机物(VOCs)污染特征及来源,2020-2021年于济南市城区开展了逐月离线观测,并于2020年6月开展加密观测,分析了VOCs年度、季节、日体积分数变化特征、化学组成及臭氧生成潜势,并利用特征比值法和正定矩阵因子分解模型解析了VOCs来源.结果表明,2021年济南市VOCs年均体积分数为(35.70±16.58)×10-9,较2020年改善14.48%,烷烃和OVOCs为VOCs中占比最高的两类组分.2020年VOCs体积分数均值呈冬高夏低季节特征,而2021年呈夏高春低季节特征,受济南市VOCs专项整治行动及北京冬奥会空气质量保障措施影响,2021年冬季VOCs体积分数均值较2020年改善最为明显,改善幅度为31.08%,2020年春季芳香烃贡献显著,可能与疫情管控后企业陆续复工复产有关.2020、2021年排名前十的组分主要为烷烃类与OVOCs,如丙烷、乙烷、正丁烷、甲醛、丙酮、乙醛等物种.2021年济南市城区OFP年均值为239.39μg/m3,较2020年下降22.46%,烷烃、炔烃、芳香烃、卤代烃OFP改善幅度分别为29.28%、3.09%、67.93%、83.49%,烯烃OFP明显上升,上升幅度为37.49%,OVOCs维持在较高水平.2020、2021年OFP排名前十的物种主要包括甲醛、乙醛、乙烯、1-丁烯、丙烯、对/间二甲苯等.臭氧重污染期间TVOCs体积分数日变化特征呈现明显的早晚高峰特征,中午时段为一天中的低值,夜间维持在较高水平.PMF解析结果表明:VOCs主要来源于工业源、燃烧源、油气挥发源、机动车尾气排放源、溶剂使用源、植物源及二次生成源,机动车尾气排放源、燃烧源及工业源为济南市VOCs的重点管控源. To study the characteristics and sources of ambient volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in urban Jinan, monthly offline observations from 2020 to 2021 and intensive observations in June 2020 were conducted. The inter-annual, seasonal, and daily concentration changes, chemical composition, and ozone formation potential (OFP) of VOCs were analyzed. Sources of VOCs were analyzed using the tracer ratio method and positive matrix factorization (PMF) model. The results indicated that the annual average mixing ratio of VOCs in urban Jinan in 2021 was (35.70 ± 16.58) ×10-9, an improvement of 14.48% compared to 2020, with alkanes and oxygenated VOCs (OVOCs) were the two major components of VOCs. The seasonal characteristics of the average mixing ratio of VOCs in 2020 showed a high in winter and a low in summer, while in 2021, it showed an increase in summer and a low in spring. Influenced by the special rectification action of VOCs in Jinan and the air quality assurance measures for the Beijing Winter Olympics, the average mixing ratio of VOCs in winter 2021 improved significantly compared to 2020, with an improvement rate of 31.08%. Aromatic hydrocarbons contributed significantly in the spring of 2020, which might be related to enterprises' gradual resumption of work under epidemic control. The top ten components in 2020 and 2021 are mainly alkanes and OVOCs, such as propane, ethane, n-butane, formaldehyde, acetone, and acetaldehyde. The annual value of OFP was 239.39µg/m3 in 2021, a decrease of 22.46% compared to 2020. The improvement rates of OFP for alkanes, alkynes, aromatics, and halogenated hydrocarbons were 29.28%, 3.09%, 67.93%, and 83.49%, respectively. The OFP for olefins increased significantly, with an increase rate of 37.49%. OVOCs remained at a relatively high level. The top ten species in OFP rankings in 2020 and 2021 mainly include formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, ethylene, 1-butene, propylene, and para/meta xylene. During heavy ozone pollution episodes, the daily variation characteristics of TVOCs volume fraction showed obvious morning and evening peak characteristics, with the noon period being the low value of the day and maintaining a high level at night. The PMF analysis showed that VOCs mainly came from industrial sources, combustion sources, oil and gas volatilization, motor vehicle exhaust emissions, solvent use sources, plant emissions, and secondary generation sources. Motor vehicle exhaust emissions, combustion sources, and industrial sources were critical sources of VOCs for O3 pollution control in Jinan. © 2024 Chinese Society for Environmental Sciences. All rights reserved

基于气象决策的四川两系杂交稻制种技术研究——以Y58S/F1599仁寿制种为例

针对四川两系杂交稻就地制种技术难题,以Y58S/F1599在仁寿制种为例,研究、验证和应用基于气象决策方案的两系杂交稻制种技术。运用两系杂交稻制种气象决策方法,分析了仁寿最近32 a的气象数据。据此制定了Y58S/F1599在仁寿的最佳制种方案:育性敏感期安排在7月10日—8月5日,对应抽穗扬花期和种子成熟收获期分别为7月25日—8月16日和8月28日—9月4日。照此方案于2014和2015年开展两系制种技术验证和应用试验,均获成功,其中2015年Y58S的育性敏感期在7月13—27日,不育系完全败育,亲本花期相遇,理论制种产量为2.52±0.49 t/hm~2,经检验种子纯度等均达国标。这初步说明在四川应用气象决策方案开展两系杂交稻制种在技术上是可行的;同时,笔者提出了四川两系杂交稻制种的风险控制策略