省际文化资本存量估算与经济增长效应研究

通过构建包含文化资本的内生经济增长模型,验证文化资本对长期经济增长的影响机制。在借鉴前人研究成果的基础上,将文化以资本的形式具体量化,在永续盘存法框架下估算出中国省际文化资本存量,并证明其存在较强的空间集聚现象。实证研究表明:现阶段中国文化资本对经济增长具有显著的促进作用,但不能排除两者存在非线性关系的可能性;分区域研究表明:中部地区文化资本产出弹性最高、西部地区次之、东部地区因文化资本过度集聚反而出现不显著的情况,这意味着不仅要加大文化领域的投入,还更应该合理配置文化资本在地区间的比重,以实现全局利益最优的目标。国家社会科学基金重点项目《我国能源开发利用的升级创新机制研究》(15AZD014);;中央高校(长安大学)基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目《基于资本服务视角的公共投入效率差异对地区经济俱乐部收敛的传导路径研究》(300102238624

中国服务业出口实现价值攀升了吗？

本文基于Wang et al.（2013）总贸易核算方法和WIOD数据库构建相对架构测算范式,重新考察中国服务业出口的价值攀升现状及其变动诱因。结果显示：相较于绝对份额,本文提出的相对架构核算更加契合各国的发展现实,可以客观测度不同国家出口利得变动的特点。不过,由于中国服务业的出口利得得分仅在1.020左右徘徊,中国服务业不仅未能实现价值攀升,甚至呈现轻微下行的风险。进一步的细分出口市场与部门类别,发现受制于嵌入方式与禀赋要素,中国服务业出口呈现出亚太锁定而“西向”攀升、高端服务行业锁定而传统服务行业攀升的格局。因此,未来的中国服务业出口不仅需要改变嵌入方式、调整出口市场,更需加快供给侧改革、变革禀赋结构,才能走出发展滞缓的困境。国家社科基金重大项目“气候变化与国际贸易问题研究”（13＆ZD167）和国家自然科学基金面上项目“国际贸易的碳排放区域转移效应评估、形成机理及中国的碳排放责任研究”（71373218）的阶段性成果

全球价值链视角下中国加工贸易的升级演进

受制于"两头在外"的嵌入弊端,加工贸易的转型升级一直颇受学界和政策制定者的关注。本文利用OECD-ICIO提供的投入产出数据库,基于MRIO模型测算了中国加工贸易的要素含量及其变化趋势。结果表明:通过不断提升国内服务含量,1995—2011年期间的出口利得实现了由22%到42%的快速攀升;并且这种价值攀升路径并非单纯的微笑曲线或哭泣曲线,而是以制造为支撑、以服务为动力,逐步实现由哭泣曲线到微笑曲线的转型变迁。不过受限于知识密集型服务嵌入不足,当前中国加工贸易的转型升级可能陷入"低端服务—低端制造"的恶性循环。因此,未来价值攀升必须迈向链条上游并兼顾制造环节,才能真正"微笑"于全球价值链两端。国家社会科学基金重大项目“气候变化与国际贸易问题研究”(13&ZD167);; 教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“要素成本上升背景下我国外贸中长期发展趋势研究”(13JZD010

增加值贸易视角下中国区际贸易成本的测算与分解

本文在Novy(2013)的基础之上,利用1997年、2002年和2007年区域间投入产出表,首次基于增加值贸易视角进行了我国区际贸易成本变动的测算与分解。结果显示:首先,不同于传统贸易流量的测度,基于增加值贸易视角的测度表明,1997-2007年的区际贸易成本不仅没有上升,反而大幅下降。其次,尽管当前的区际贸易成本有所下降,但是这种下降主要体现为以内陆地区和初级产品带动的低端化整合。最后,进一步利用双边分解,本文发现低端化整合的迹象可能在于邻区偏少、产业同构度过高与政策缺失下,东部沿海地区更多利用国外需求进行替代所致。随着东部沿海地区的对外依赖程度提升,区际分工整合将会面临"初级产品分工整合加快→服务行业过度出口→遭受出口俘获→初级产品分工整合进一步加快"的恶性循环。因此,进一步转变发展观念、扭转市场分割激励、加快基础设施建设,才能从根本上提升区际整合质量。国家社会科学基金重大项目“气候变化与国际贸易问题研究”(13&ZD167);国家社会科学基金重大项目“‘一带一路’区域价值链构建与中国产业转型升级研究”(18ZDA038);;厦门大学人文社会科学创新团队“国际贸易与产业发展”项目(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金,20720171001)的资

国内价值链推动中国制造业出口价值攀升的事实与解释

尽管中国制造业出口的低值现象受到广泛关注,但是已有研究普遍忽略了大国整合的潜在优势,这将导致国内价值链对出口价值的影响难以刻画。有鉴于此,本文在已有文献的基础上,首次按照增加值来源的不同,进行了国内价值链与出口价值攀升的量化研究。结果显示:不同于传统的"出口俘获"预期,中国制造业的本国增加值率未因出口规模快速扩张而大幅下降;这一反常现象主要来自国内价值链的延伸,随着入世之后的区际贸易壁垒下降,中国制造业出口不仅充分整合了区域间的资源、推动了价值攀升,而且有效弥补了区域内部的竞争实力不足、带动了出口规模提升;进一步利用结构分解分析,本文发现,相比出口需求,区际关联才是影响国内价值链整合的主导因素,不过受制于市场分割下的扭曲激励,当前的区际关联呈现内陆单向供给沿海、初级产品替代高级要素的低端化走势。因此,在国内价值链已经成为推动中国制造价值攀升重要媒介的背景下,进一步加快市场整合,才能从根本上改变中国制造的低值困境。教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目“国内价值链推动中国制造业出口转型升级的事实与解释研究”（19YJC790178）中南财经政法大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项“区际分工视角下中国制造业出口转型升级的机制研究”（2722019JCG013）国家社科基金重大项目“‘一带一路’区域价值链构建与中国产业转型升级研究”（18ZDA038

Emission Reduction Strategies Under Plight Collusion:Based on the Industrial Waste Gas Perspective

结合当前gdP导向下的晋升激励与层层加压的减排任务考核现实,立足于政治经济学角度,提出了政企合谋下策略性减排困境的假说,并利用1997-2011年间的相关数据进行双向固定效应下的普通面板与空间计量的检验。实证分析发现,相对于环境库茨涅茨曲线、污染天堂以及财政分权假说,晋升压力下本地晋升官员与企业合谋追求产出最大化的行为才是导致废气排放屡禁不止的主要原因;而即使考虑到政策时滞效应以及地区之间的空间依赖效应之后,政企合谋核心变量始终显著,但其他污染假说的备择变量依旧未能通过显著性检验,表明政企合谋导致外溢性物品排放恶化的假说十分稳健;同时,通过显著性检验的年度虚拟变量表明,尽管减排约束影响了合谋行为,但地方政府仅在检查力度较大的人事变动时期有限度的减排,而在后期无节制的增排,从而导致了废气排放与党代会同步的周期性波动;庆幸的是,尽管政企合谋假说十分稳健,但基于经济地理矩阵的空间滞后系数表明,晋升激励与考核任务的双重约束使得邻近地区之间,因为经济增长的短期不确定性与晋升博弈的残酷性而在短期内不敢贸然增排以避免陷入增长无法兑现的同时遭受约束性任务惩罚的尴尬境地,从而形成了经济差距下邻近地区之间废气排放的区域分化策略;最后,我们基于当前的政企合谋下策略性减排假说验证的基础上,认为要想扭转当前的减排困境,必须着力提升年轻官员与鼓励异地调任、给予环境污染以更多的激励权重、努力缩小地区经济差距以及改变单维gdP考核机制,方能从根本上转变当前的不利局面。Facing the reality of the current reduction task appraisal and promotion incentives guiding layers under pressure of GDP,we put forward the hypothesis of a strategic dilemma emissions under collusion based on the political perspective of economics and use the relevant data of 1997- 2011 in ordinary panel and space under the two-way fixed effects to test the hypothesis.Empirical analysis shows that environmental Kuznets curve relative to the pollution haven hypothesis and fiscal decentralization,promotion,promoted under the pressure of local officials and business collusion output maximization behavior is the main cause of repeated emissions; while even considering after the space-dependent effect to the policy and the time lag effect between regions,collusion core variable is always significant,but the alternative hypothesis variables other pollution still failed to pass the test of significance,suggesting collusion led to the deterioration of emissions spillover goods hypothesis is strong; at the same time,the annual dummy variables showed that although emissions constraints affects the collusive behavior,the local goverments only do limited emissions reduction during the period of reinforced inspection and do uncontrolled increased emissions in the latter period,resulting in the emission synchronizing with cyclical fluctuations in Congress.Fortunately,although the collusion hypothesis is strong,the spatial lag coefficient matrix based on economic geography shows that promotion incentives and assessment tasks cause the adjacent double bind between regions,because of the uncertainty of short-term economic growth and promotion of the game and not rashly increasing brutality row to avoid falling in the short term,while growth cannot deliver a binding mandate punishment suffered embarrassment,thus forming the economic gap Regional differentiation strategy between emissions under neighborhood.Finally,based on the current strategic reduction collusion hypothesis verification,in order to reverse the current reduction plight,young officials must strive to enhance and encourage off-site transfer,and give more incentives to environmental pollution weights efforts to reduce regional economic disparities and changes in GDP onedimensional evaluation mechanism in order to change the current unfavorable situation radically.教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“中国式分权下的地方政府质量提升路径研究”(编号:12CJL022

Research on the Nonlinear Relation of City Scale and Economic Growth under the Constraint of Urban Household Registration

利用2000年~2010年31个省市城市规模与经济增长的相关数据,构建门槛回归模型,探讨户籍管制下城市规模与经济增长的动态发展过程。研究发现:户籍管制的确构成了城市规模的发展瓶颈,过高的户籍管制导致城市规模与经济增长的负相关,而过低的户籍管制则影响城市规模对经济增长的带动作用;进一步结合样本分布的时空特征,指出户籍约束而非过度城市化导致了现阶段城市规模的低效率集聚。城市规模与经济增长的非线性关系,应该通过户籍改革加快城市化进程,并制定合理的户籍管制政策,防止户籍管制过低或过高对经济增长造成不利影响。Using 31 provinces' relevant data of city scale and economic growth from 2000 to 2010,this paper builds a threshold regression model to investigate the dynamic development process of urban household size and economic growth.It finds that: household control does constitute a bottleneck for the development of city scale,and too-high household control leads to the negative correlation of city size with economic growth,while too-low household control cannot maximize the driving role of city size in economic growth.The further integration of spatial and temporal characteristics of the sample distribution shows that it is the household constraint rather than the excessive urbanization that has led to the low efficiency of urban-scale gathering stage.The nonlinear relation between city size and economic growth should accelerate the process of urbanization through household registration reforms,and reasonable household regulatory policies should be developed to prevent the adverse effect of too-low or too-high household control on economic growth.国家社会科学基金项目(12BJL021

The Rising Value of China's Processing Trade: Is NVC Embedded Better than GVC

受制于全球价值链(GVC)分工体系下的低值困境,嵌入国内价值链(NVC)被视为是助推我国加工贸易价值攀升的重要途径。本文基于OECD-ICIO数据库,采用Wang等(2017)的增加值核算模型,测算和比较分析了1995—2011年我国代工行业嵌入GVC与NVC下的国内增加值率,并通过SDA方法考察了GVC和NVC下国内增加值率变动的驱动因素。结果发现,观察期内我国代工行业呈现出明显的"出口转内销"的发展态势,但嵌入NVC对国内增加值率的拉动效应明显弱于GVC,加工贸易快速的价值攀升主要来自GVC的支撑;NVC下的价值攀升相对滞缓主要缘于"国内配套政策缺失→内销不畅→更多国外要素嵌入"的困境。因此,未来的转型升级应当强化国内产业配套措施,扭转粗放经营模式,才能真正借助NThe embedded national value chain （NVC） is regarded as an important way to boost the value of China＇ s processing trade, subject to the low value predicament under the division of labor system of the global value chain （GVC）. Based on the OECD-ICIO database, this paper uses the value-added accounting model of Wang et al. （ 2017 ） to measure and compare the domestic value-added rate of China＇ s OEM （ Original Equipment Manufacturer） embedded in GVC and NVC from 1995 to 2011, and analyzes the driving factors of the domestic value-added rate under the GVC and NVC. The results show that in the observation period, the OEM in China showed an obvious development trend of ＂export to domestic sales＂, but the pulling effect of embedded NVC on domestic value added rate is weaker than that of GVC. The rapid value escalation of processing trade is mainly baekstopped by GVC; the relative lag in value escalation by NVC is mainly due to the plight of ＂lack of domestic supporting policies----~sluggish domestic sales---rmore foreign elements embedded＂. Therefore, the future transformation and upgrading should be strengthened with the domestic industrial supporting measures to reverse the extensive business models, in order to practically use NVC to promote the value escalation of the processing trade in China.厦门大学人文社会科学创新团队“国际贸易与产业发展”项目(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金,20720171001)；国家社会科学基金重大项目“气候变化与国际贸易问题研究”(13&ZD167)的资助

The Facts and Explanation of China's Manufacturing Servitization Transformation

研究目标:把握中国制造业服务化趋势及其驱动因素。研究方法:基于MRIO模型的贸易增加值核算及结构分解分析。研究发现:如果考虑中国贸易的二元结构,; 则制造业服务化悖论并不存在,1995~2011年期间,中国制造业出口中的服务增加值占比由33.; 54%上升至33.74%,上升幅度很小,但国内服务增加值对于制造业出口增加值创造的重要性在快速提高,制造业服务化转型呈现出以国内服务替代国外服务; 的趋势;从不同贸易方式来看,制造业加工出口的国内服务化水平较低但其提升幅度大大超过了一般贸易出口;市场分割弱化了国内产业关联、粗放型发展模式导致; 服务部门增加值系数下降,以及来自于亚太地区出口市场的低端俘获,这些都是抑制一般贸易出口的国内服务化水平提升的主要原因。研究创新:利用OECD-I; CIO区分加工贸易的数据,对中国制造业出口中的服务增加值进行再测算,并比较分析两种不同贸易方式下国内服务化转型的变动趋势及其主要驱动因素。研究价; 值:为促进中国制造业转型升级、提升出口利得提供参考。Research Objectives: The trend and its driving factors of China's; manufacturing servitization. Research Methods: The value added in trade; accounting and Structural Decomposition Analysis based on the MRIO; model. Research Findings: If the dual structure of China's trade is; considered, the manufacturing service paradox will not exist. From 1995; to 2011,the growth of service value added in China's manufacturing; sector is very small. But the importance of the domestic servitization; for the creation of export value added in the manufacturing is rising; rapidly, and the transformation of manufacturing servitization appears a; trend of the replacing of foreign services by domestic ones . On the; trade type, the domestic servitization of manufacturing processing; exports is low,but its rising range is much higher than ordinary trade; exports. The main reasons which restrain the domestic servitization; increasing of the ordinary trade export include that the market; segmentations have weakened the linkage of domestic industries,and the; extensive development has led to a decline in the value-added; coefficients of the service sectors and the low-end capture from the; Asia-Pacific export market. Research Innovations: By using the OECD-ICIO; data which distinguishes the processing trade export from the ordinary; trade export, this paper re-calculates the service value added in the; export of China's manufacturing, and analyzes the trends and the main; driving factors in the transformation of domestic servitization under; the above two different trade types. Research Value : This paper; provides references for promoting the transformation of China's; manufacturing and the value added in trade.国家社科基金重大项目; 国家自然科学基金面上项目; 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资

Does Constraining Assessment Enhance the officials' Incentives to Reduce Emission?

本文利用1997-2012年间的相关数据,借助于倍差模型,分析了约束性考核政策是否纠正了以往环境激励不足带来的短视行为。实证分析发现:约束性考核不仅未能从根本上纠正环境激励缺失造成的短视行为,更进一步强化了晋升压力下政治官员的“策略性“选择行为,使得强外溢性、非约束性指标沦为当前政策体系的环境牺牲品,从而也为步步紧逼环境压力下的大气污染尤其是“雾霾“现象提供了一个合理解释。立足于激励角度,本文研究丰富和拓展了环境污染的相关文献,为进一步理解地方官员与节能减排之间的联系提供了新的经验证据。This paper analyzes whether constraining assessment policy corrects the short-sighted behaviors brought by the past insufficient environment incentive by using the relevant data from 1997 to 2012 with the aid of fold difference model.Empirical analysis finds: constraining assessment not only can't radically correct short-sighted behaviors caused by loss of environment incentive,but also it intensifies the"tactical"selection behaviors of political officials under the pressure of promotion and makes the strong spillover and unconstraint indicators be environment sacrifices under current policy system and also provides a reasonable explanation for the atmosphere pollution,especially"mist"phenomenon.This paper enriches and expands the relevant documents on environmental pollution from the perspective of incentive and provides new empirical evidence for understanding the link between the local officials and energy saving and emission reduction.教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“中国式分权下的地方政府质量提升路径研究”(编号:12CJL022