7 research outputs found
不確かさを持つ機械系の同定と運動制御に関する研究
名古屋大学Nagoya University博士(工学)名古屋大学博士学位論文 学位の種類:博士(工学) (課程) 学位授与年月日:平成12年3月27日doctoral thesi
2017 年衆院選における選挙予測の比較分析 : 報道各社の予測の正確さを検証する〔論文〕
読売,日経,朝日,毎日の4 つの大手新聞社と共同通信のうちどの社の選挙予測の精度が高いのかを,全小選挙区の情勢記事を比較することで調べた.今回の分析では,日経新聞が正確だったと判定した.その理由として,①1 位予測の的中率が91.3%で一番よかった,②「接戦」の表現をできるだけ使わずに当選と落選のどちらに近いかの表現を多く使用した,③正確なうえに素早い報道がなされたことが挙げられる.本稿は,予測の信頼性への判断材料や予測報道の改善に資する分析結果とデータを開示する.
We have compared prediction articles covering each election district from four newspaper companies and one news service agency; Yomiuri, Nihon Keizai(Nikkei), Asahi, Mainichi Shimbun Newspaper, and Kyodo Tsushin. Nikkei Shimbun shows better accuracy. This paper explains the reasons for this as follows: (1) the accuracy rate was 91.3% among the best predictions for all candidates, (2) the expressions with respect to election status did not use “head-to-head” and, as much as possible, instead showed which candidate was “winning” or “losing,” and (3) accurate and quick reporting were conducted. We anticipate the data to be useful for both the media and the electorate. The media is able to use the data for improving predictions, and electorates are able to select reliable news media for election broadcasts.1. 2017 年衆院選の情勢報道
2.小選挙区での当選予想の的中率
3.予想をはずした選挙区
4.記事中の情勢表現の的確さ
5.今後の課題
【後記】textapplication/pdfdepartmental bulletin pape
A NOTE ON MALMQUIST'S THEOREM ON FIRST-ORDER DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS
application/pdfdepartmental bulletin pape
A Nonlinear Dynamic Soil-Foundation lnteraction Model Using Fiber Element and Its Application to Seismic Response Analysis of Bridge
This paper presents a nonlinear spring multι-Winkler model for nonlinear seismic response of foundation and superstructure system using the fiber element method. The nonlinear soil reactions are modeled by using the spring coefficents per unit area of foundation surface with 3 components consisting of normal traction and two shear tractions on foundation surface. The shapes of monotonic curves and the hystesis loops of the 3 springs are evaluated using the Mohr-Coulomb yield criterion and no rigidity of tension, and by the concrete crack model. The proposed spring model can incorporate such effects as separation and slippage at the soil foundation interface, and also the effect of coupling between the normal traction and two shear tractions on foundation surface. To demonstrate an applicability of the proposed model, a nonlinear seismic response analysis of cable stayed bridge supported by the two caisson foundations is performed and the effects of nonlinear behaviors of soil reactions are discussed
