はじめに

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日本における自殺率の変動要因に関する混合効果モデルによる検討 : 1990年から2005年の男性の自殺率を対象とした基礎的分析

本稿では、日本における自殺率の変動に対して線形混合効果モデルを適用し、当該モデルの自殺率の要因分析に対する有効性を検討する。利用したデータは、都道府県別の男性・自殺年齢調整死亡率であり、予備的な分析として1985年から2015年までの5年おき7時点のデータを利用した。このデータに関し、混合効果モデルの一形態である潜在成長曲線モデルを利用してトレンドの関数形の識別を行った結果、3次関数が適切との結論となった。そのため、本稿での基礎的分析では、線形関数でトレンドが比較的よく近似できた1990年から2005年のデータに限定し、線形混合モデルによる因果分析を実施した。また、予測変数を、人間・世帯、自然環境、経済基盤、労働の4つの環境カテゴリーに分け、それぞれに関する合計21の時変共変量を用いた。分析の結果、老年人口割合、単身世帯比率、高齢単身世帯比率、離婚率、降水量、課税対象所得、第二、第三次産業構成比率、完全失業率、一般病院の外来患者数、一般病院数、一般診療所数、医師数の13つの共変量が有意な効果を示した。また、これらの共変量に基づく男性自殺率の予測値は、4時点の男性自殺率の変動を比較的よく再現していた。以上から、本研究の基礎的分析によって、自殺率の変動の分析に対する混合効果モデルの適用の有効性が示された。This paper applies a linear mixed-effects model to examine the effectiveness of this model in analyzing factors influencing suicide rates in Japan. The data used consists of male age-adjusted suicide rates by prefecture, using data from seven time points at five-year intervals from 1985 to 2015 for preliminary analysis. By employing a latent growth curve model, a form of mixed-effects model, to identify the functional form of the trend, it was concluded that a cubic function was appropriate.　Consequently, for the fundamental analysis here, the data was limited to the period from 1990 to 2005, during which the trend could be relatively well approximated by a linear function, and a causal analysis was conducted using a linear mixed-effects model. The predictor variables were divided into four environmental categories: human and household, natural environment, economic base, and labor, using a total of 22 time-variant covariates related to these categories. The analysis results indicated that thirteen covariates had significant effects: the proportion of the elderly population, the ratio of single-person households, the ratio of elderly single-person households, divorce rate, precipitation, taxable income, the industrial composition rate of both the secondary and tertiary sectors, the unemployment rate, the number of outpatients at general hospitals, the number of general hospitals, the number of general clinics, and the number of doctors. Furthermore, the predicted values of male suicide rates based on these covariates relatively well reproduced the variations in male suicide rates at four time points. From the fundamental analysis in this study, the effectiveness of applying mixed-effects models to the analysis of variations in suicide rates has been demonstrated.departmental bulletin pape

人が他人を信じるとき : 社会関係資本と地域の活性化

第164回(平成16年6月10日)関西活性化研究班担当departmental bulletin pape

地域への愛着と信頼 : 大阪への愛着と「大阪人」へのカテゴリー的信頼に焦点をあてて

本研究では、地域への愛着、および地域文化への興味が、そこに暮らす人々へのカテゴリー的信頼を育むかどうかを、大阪を対象として計量的に検討する。この目的のため、大阪府在住の男女310名に対して、インターネット調査を行った。この調査では、大阪人への信頼、大阪への愛着、大阪の歴史・文化への興味のほか、大阪文化に関する知識を測定するために、大阪独自の手締めである「大阪締め」を知っているかどうかの質問を設けた。t-SNEを用いた解析の結果、大阪文化への興味は、大阪文化へのポジティブな評価を伴う場合にのみ、大阪人への信頼を生み出していることが分かった。また、t-SNEの分析結果を基礎として共分散構造分析を行った結果、大阪への愛着は大阪人への信頼を促進していることが明証された。In this study, we quantitatively examine whether attachment to the region and interest in regional culture foster categorical trust among the residents in Osaka. For this purpose, an internet survey was conducted on 310 men and women residing in Osaka Prefecture. The survey included questions measuring trust in Osaka residents, attachment to Osaka, interest in the history and culture of Osaka, and knowledge about Osaka culture, with an additional inquiry about awareness of the unique Osaka- Jime, a distinctive local greeting. The results of the analysis using t-SNE revealed that interest in Osaka culture contributes to the generation of trust in Osaka residents only when accompanied by a positive evaluation of Osaka culture. Furthermore, based on the t-SNE analysis results, structural equation modeling (SEM) demonstrated that attachment to Osaka serves as clear evidence of promoting trust in Osaka residents.departmental bulletin pape

信頼感、信頼性に関する潜在的態度測定の試み : 信頼IATの開発

社会的信頼をめぐっては、経済学、社会学、政治学、公衆衛生学分野において多数の計量分析がなされ、また、社会心理学分野では国際比較を含む実験研究も多数なされてきている。これらの実証研究は、質問紙調査、あるいは実験による個人の社会的信頼感、社会的信頼性の測定を基礎としている。しかしながら、これらの測定に関しては、信頼性・妥当性の観点や社会調査への適用可能性に関して課題があることが分かっている。一方、これらの課題を突破できる可能性のある手法として、潜在連合テスト(IAT)がある。そこで、本研究では、社会的信頼をめぐる態度測定IAT(信頼IAT)の新規開発を企図した。紙筆版・信頼IATと音声版・信頼IATの二者を開発した結果、前者において、場面想定法で測定された委任・分配額に対する予測力が高いことが示された。特に、社会的信頼性に対応する分配額の予測に関して、紙筆版・信頼IATは顕在的測度には見られない強い予測力を示した。このことから、今回開発した信頼IATは、社会的信頼に関わる行動をよりよく予測する新たな測度となる蓋然性が高いといえる。In the realm of social trust, numerous quantitative analyses have been conducted in economics, sociology, political science and public science. Additionally, social psychology has witnessed a plethora of experimental studies, including international comparisons. These empirical studies are rooted in the measurement of trustfulness and trustworthiness through questionnaire surveys or experiments. However, issues concerning the reliability, validity, or applicability to social surveys have been identified in these measurements. As a potential method to overcome these issues, the Implicit Association Test (IAT) has been considered for the first time in this study. Therefore, this study aims to develop a novel IAT, referred to as the Trust IAT, for attitude measurement concerning social trust. As a result of developing both a paper-pencil version of the Trust IAT and a voice-based version, the former demonstrated high predictive power for trust and allocation amounts measured through vignette technique. Particularly, the paper-pencil Trust IAT exhibited strong predictive power, not observed in explicit measures, concerning the prediction of allocation amounts corresponding to social trustworthiness. Consequently, the Trust IAT developed in this study holds promise as a new measure with enhanced predictive capabilities for behaviors related to social trust.科研・挑戦的研究(萌芽)課題番号18K18704departmental bulletin pape

Construction of a Trash Retrieval System

departmental bulletin pape

Precise Measurement of B Meson Lifetimes with Hadronic Decay Final States

journal articl

Hordatine A β‑d‑Glucopyranoside from Ungerminated Barley Grains

Hordatine A β-d-glucopyranoside was isolated from ungerminated barley grains for the first time and identified by MS spectrometry and one- and two-dimensional NMR spectroscopy. This compound was observed 20 days after flowering (DAF) and most abundant at 35 DAF when the dry weight of grains reached a maximum. The contents of the compound markedly decreased when grains were pearled from 85% to 70% yield, suggesting that the compound is localized in the aleurone layer. The compound was commonly observed in ungerminated mature grains among 10 cultivars, and its contents ranged from 103 to 254 nmol/g dry weight. Because hordatines have been reported to have antifungal activities, the compound may act as an antifungal component in the latter half of the maturing stages and in mature barley grains

初級日本語学習者のコミュニケーション ･ ストラテジー : 「発話のストラテジー」 使用についての考察

application/pdfThe purpose of this research is to analyze the “Communication Strategies” used by Japanese language learners. The main focus is to analyze “Communication Strategies” Which are used by Japanese learners as a speaker.　The informants were eight native English speakers that had been studying Japanese at university in Japan. Their level of Japanese was elementary. The data was taken from interviews done one month after coming to Japan. The interviewer was a native Japanese woman. The interviews were recorded on tape and were transcribed as data in this research. The framework of “Communication Strategies” for a speaker as well　as its categories were taken from Yokobayashi (1991) .　From the analysis, these results are clarified;1) Strategies which are often used by learners, 2) Strategies which are more successful or not, 3) The cause of failure in using strategies.departmental bulletin pape

Raymond L. Rodriguez メイヨ ハカセ ショウゴウ ジュヨシキ

video/mp4講演日: 平成21年12月14日講演場所: ミレニアムホールvide