What do asset prices have to say about risk appetite and uncertainty?

Implied volatility indices should have information about risk parameters, once they are cleansed of the influence of normal volatility dynamics and macro-economic uncertainty. Building on intuition from the dynamic asset pricing literature, we uncover unobserved risk aversion and fundamental uncertainty from the observed time series of the VIX and the credit spreads while controlling for realized volatility, expectations about the macroeconomic outlook, and interest rates. We apply this methodology to monthly data from both Germany and the US. We find that implied volatilities contain a substantial amount of information regarding risk aversion whereas credit spreads have a lot to say about both risk aversion and uncertainty. Moreover, there is a significant comovement in the German and US risk aversion. JEL Classification:Credit Spread, Economic uncertainty, risk aversion, Time variation in risk and return, Volatility dynamics

Sticky wages: evidence from quarterly microeconomic data

This paper documents nominal wage stickiness using an original quarterly firm-level dataset. We use the ACEMO survey, which reports the base wage for up to 12 employee categories in French firms over the period 1998 to 2005, and obtain the following main results. First, the quarterly frequency of wage change is around 35 percent. Second, there is some downward rigidity in the base wage. Third, wage changes are mainly synchronized within firms but to a large extent staggered across firms. Fourth, standard Calvo or Taylor schemes fail to match micro wage adjustment patterns, but fixed duration "Taylor-like" wage contracts are observed for a minority of firms. Based on a two-thresholds sample selection model, we perform an econometric analysis of wage changes. Our results suggest that the timing of wage adjustments is not state-dependent, and are consistent with existence of predetermined of wage changes. They also suggest that both backward- and forward-looking behavior is relevant in wage setting. JEL Classification: E24, J3wage predetermination, Wage stickiness

A contextual framework for the development of a building sustainability assessment method for Iran

As one of the fastest growing countries in the Middle East, and the one most vulnerable to climate change, the main challenge now facing Iran today is how to house its growing population in a socially, economically, and environmentally sustainable way. However, in the absence of a national framework to guide the sustainable development of the built environment, responding to this challenge is problematic. The articulation of a comprehensive assessment method that would enable issues of sustainability to be addressed and incorporated within building construction projects is urgently required. The research that underpins this paper takes account of current tools in aiming to support the development of a national building sustainability assessment method (BSAM) for use in Iran that involves the identification of sources of impact, specific benchmarks, and priorities for a weighting system for assessment criteria. This paper profiles the basis of a contextual framework that will inform the development of such a regional-based tool, taking account of Iran’s current climate change adaptation policies and priorities, its environmental conditions and socio-economic challenges, building typologies, standards and benchmarks

What do asset prices have to say about risk appetite and uncertainty?

Implied volatility indices should have information about risk parameters, once they are cleansed of the influence of normal volatility dynamics and macro-economic uncertainty. Building on intuition from the dynamic asset pricing literature, we uncover unobserved risk aversion and fundamental uncertainty from the observed time series of the VIX and the credit spreads while controlling for realized volatility, expectations about the macroeconomic outlook, and interest rates. We apply this methodology to monthly data from both Germany and the US. We find that implied volatilities contain a substantial amount of information regarding risk aversion whereas credit spreads have a lot to say about both risk aversion and uncertainty. Moreover, there is a significant comovement in the German and US risk aversion

Assessing the benefits of international portfolio diversification in bonds and stocks.

This paper considers a stylized asset pricing model where the returns from exchange rates, stocks and bonds are linked by basic risk-arbitrage relationships. Employing GMM estimation and monthly data for 18 economies and the US (treated as the domestic country), we identify through a simple test the countries whose assets strongly comove with US assets and the countries whose assets might other larger diversification benefits. We also show that the strengthening of the comovement of returns across countries is neither a gradual process nor a global phenomenon, reinforcing the case for international diversification. However, our results suggest that fund managers are better other constructing portfolios selecting assets from a subset of countries than relying on either fully inter-nationally diversified or purely domestic portfolios

Distributional Patterns of Pseudacteon Associated with the Solenopsis saevissima Complex in South America

Classical biological control efforts against imported fire ants have largely involved the use of Pseudacteon parasitoids. To facilitate further exploration for species and population biotypes a database of collection records for Pseudacteon species was organized, including those from the literature and other sources. These data were then used to map the geographical ranges of species associated with the imported fire ants in their native range in South America. In addition, we found geographical range metrics for all species in the genus and related these metrics to latitude and host use. Approximately equal numbers of Pseudacteon species were found in temperate and tropical regions, though the majority of taxa found only in temperate areas were found in the Northern Hemisphere. No significant differences in sizes of geographical ranges were found between Pseudacteon associated with the different host complexes of fire ants despite the much larger and systemic collection effort associated with the S. saevissima host group. The geographical range of the flies was loosely associated with both the number of hosts and the geographical range of their hosts. Pseudacteon with the most extensive ranges had either multiple hosts or hosts with broad distributions. Mean species richnesses of Pseudacteon in locality species assemblages associated with S. saevissima complex ants was 2.8 species, but intensively sampled locations were usually much higher. Possible factors are discussed related to variation in the size of geographical range, and areas in southern South America are outlined that are likely to have been under-explored for Pseudacteon associated with imported fire ants

Distributional Patterns of Pseudacteon Associated with the Solenopsis saevissima Complex in South America

Classical biological control efforts against imported fire ants have largely involved the use of Pseudacteon parasitoids. To facilitate further exploration for species and population biotypes a database of collection records for Pseudacteon species was organized, including those from the literature and other sources. These data were then used to map the geographical ranges of species associated with the imported fire ants in their native range in South America. In addition, we found geographical range metrics for all species in the genus and related these metrics to latitude and host use. Approximately equal numbers of Pseudacteon species were found in temperate and tropical regions, though the majority of taxa found only in temperate areas were found in the Northern Hemisphere. No significant differences in sizes of geographical ranges were found between Pseudacteon associated with the different host complexes of fire ants despite the much larger and systemic collection effort associated with the S. saevissima host group. The geographical range of the flies was loosely associated with both the number of hosts and the geographical range of their hosts. Pseudacteon with the most extensive ranges had either multiple hosts or hosts with broad distributions. Mean species richnesses of Pseudacteon in locality species assemblages associated with S. saevissima complex ants was 2.8 species, but intensively sampled locations were usually much higher. Possible factors are discussed related to variation in the size of geographical range, and areas in southern South America are outlined that are likely to have been under-explored for Pseudacteon associated with imported fire ants

Distribution of Neuropeptide F-Like Immunoreactivity in the Eastern Subterranean Termite, Reticulitermes flavipes

The nervous system and gut of worker, soldier and alate castes of the eastern subterranean termite, Reticulitermes flavipes Kollar (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae) were examined for immunoreactivity to an antiserum to Helicoverpa zea (Boddie) (Leipidoptera: Noctuidae) MP-I (QAARPRF-NH2), a truncated form of neuropeptide F. More than 145 immunostained axons and cell bodies were seen in the brain and all ganglia of the ventral nerve cord. Immunoreactive axons exiting the brain projected anteriorly to the frontal ganglion and posteriorly to the corpora cardiaca and corpora allata. In the stomatogastric nervous system, immunoreactive axons were observed over the surface of the foregut, salivary glands, midgut and rectum. These axons originated in the brain and from 15–25 neurosecretory cells on the foregut. Staining patterns were consistent between castes, with the exception of immunostaining observed in the optic lobes of alates. At least 600 immunoreactive endocrine cells were evenly distributed in the midguts of all castes with higher numbers present in the worker caste. Immunostaining of cells in the nervous system and midgut was blocked by preabsorption of the antiserum with Hez MP-I but not by a peptide having only the RF-NH2 in common. This distribution suggests NPF-like peptides coordinate feeding and digestion in all castes of this termite species

Autonomous cortisol secretion – Mortality, morbidity and diagnostics

ContextUp to half of patients with adrenal adenomas found as incidentalomas show biochemical signs of subtle cortisol hypersecretion without having clinical signs or symptoms of Cushing’s syndrome. A condition called autonomous cortisol secretion (ACS). Previous studies have indicated that ACS might be associated with increased mortality.ObjectivesExplore if ACS is an independent risk factor for increased mortality. Evaluate low ACTH as a diagnostic marker of ACS. Investigate the prevalence of smoking in patients with adrenal adenomas.MethodsCohort and cross-sectional studies. Adult patients referred to two Swedish endocrine centres because of an adrenal adenoma, found as an incidentaloma, between 2005 and 2015 were enrolled. Mortality data were obtained from the Cause of Death Register. Patients were grouped according to predefined levels of cortisol after a 1-mg dexamethasone suppression test (cortisolDST); non-functional adrenal adenoma (NFAA), defined as cortisolDST Results1048 patients were followed for 6.4 years. Compared with NFAA mortality was not increased in cortisolDST 50-82 nmol/L, hazard ratio (HR) 1.17 (95% CI, 0.79-1.73)), while cortisolDST 83-137 and ≥138 nmol/L were associated with a significant increase in mortality, HR 2.33 (1.53-3.53) and 2.87 (1.74-4.74). Mortality did not differ significantly between 632 patients with NFAA and matched controls (3:1) when followed for 6.6 years, HR 1.13 (0.87-1.46). Studying 198 patients with unilateral adrenal adenomas and 100 healthy controls, low ACTH (ConclusionsACS is an independent risk factor for increased mortality, while NFAAs do not pose a relevant risk. The risk associated with ACS seems to become clinically relevant when the cortisolDST level is ≥83 nmol/L. Low ACTH is of limited value in diagnosing ACS, in part due to its high prevalence in patients with NFAA. Additionally, there appears to be a link between smoking, adrenal adenomas, and ACS