Epidemiological modelling of type 2 diabetes in Saudi Arabia :predicted trends and public health implications

PhD thesisBackground: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia faces one of the highest prevalence rates of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the world. However, there are no credible local data on the trends and future projections of the disease, and the relevant international studies underestimated the true prevalence rates. This thesis used epidemiological modelling to study the trends in T2DM prevalence in Saudi Arabia, predicted its future levels, and quantified the impact of reducing some risk factors on the disease prevalence trends. Methods: This thesis developed and validated the “Saudi IMPACT Diabetes Forecast Model”, which integrates data on the population, obesity and smoking prevalence trends in Saudis aged ≥25 years to estimate the trends in T2DM prevalence (1992-2022) using a Markov modelling approach. The model considers different reasonable scenarios of future trends in obesity prevalence, and incorporates a number of parameters to model the disease epidemiology. These parameters include the estimated diabetes incidence, case-fatality, total mortality, relative risk of diabetes if obese, and relative risk of diabetes if a smoker. The model data inputs and parameters were obtained from different sources, including local departments, medical literature and assumptions. The model results were validated against local data from the STEPwise survey in 2005, and against the model of the Global Burden of Disease study, where the model produced reasonably close results to both of these studies. Results: The prevalence of T2DM among the Saudi population aged ≥25 years was estimated to rise substantially during the 30-year period of 1992-2022 from 8.5% to 39.5%, assuming some levelling off of obesity trends (capping), or to 44.1%, assuming uncapped increasing obesity trends. In men, T2DM prevalence was estimated to increase from 8.7% to 39.2% with capped obesity trends, or to 41.3% with continuing linear increase in obesity trends. In women, T2DM prevalence was estimated to increase from 8.2% to 39.8% with capping of obesity trends, or to 47.7% without such a capping. The model showed that if the trends in obesity start to decline by 10% in 12 years (2010-2022), a relative reduction of 13% in diabetes prevalence could be achieved. If the prevalence of obesity was halted at the 2010 levels, a 10% relative reduction in diabetes prevalence could be attained by 2022. ii Conclusion: T2DM is currently a major public health challenge in Saudi Arabia, and this thesis predicted that its burden will increase substantially in the next decade. Intensive and aggressive preventive measures directed to reduce the levels of risk factors, particularly obesity and smoking, can result in reasonable reduction of the disease prevalence, and therefore should be an urgent action

An Important Landmarks Construction for a GIS-Map based on Indexing of Dolly Images

In this paper, we describe the construction of important landmarks of roads in the GIS environment. The system uses the corners between more than two roads as an important landmarks. In this corner points will be saving a number of images, each one represents the movement direction between two segment roads. The objective of our work is to build the geo-database repository depend on the GIS (vector data) and multimedia (raster data) information. This paper considered as a preprocessing step for a roadmap discovery of video film when the input to the system is a dolly video film of roads with absence the GPS locations of frames video, and the output is the pathway (route) on the map inside the GIS environment. This work considered as a starting point for multimedia query inside the GIS environment. That’s mean when query the GIS system about a particular image or video, the GIS system must be able to know and determine the location of this image or video file on the map. Thus, the first step for doing this process needs to building and constructing an appropriate database for matching process later

Using dart language to create first gift ordering application in Iraq, with (as-is to-be) analysis

The use of smartphones and the areas in which smartphone solutions are provided have increased immensely over the past decade. However, one area which has not been as keen on adopting the smartphone approach is the Gifts area. This study aims to investigate the amenability of users to adapt to this approach and outlines the requirements and desires of such a product. By conducting extensive research in form of usability tests, interviews and observations, we developed a high-fidelity prototype based on an elaborate requirements specification. The results show that the users are, to a great extent, willing to use an application for Gifts-related tasks. Together with the prototype, the study provides support for further development of similar applications

Health Electroencephalogram epileptic classification based on Hilbert probability similarity

This paper has proposed a new classification method based on Hilbert probability similarity to detect epileptic seizures from electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. Hilbert similarity probability-based measure is exploited to measure the similarity between signals. The proposed system consisted of models based on Hilbert probability similarity (HPS) to predict the state for the specific EEG signal. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) has been employed for feature selection and extraction. Furthermore, the used dataset in this study is Bonn University's publicly available EEG dataset. Several metrics are calculated to assess the performance of the suggested systems such as accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. The experimental results show that the suggested model is an effective tool for classifying EEG signals, with an accuracy of up to 100% for two-class status

Effect of Thrombolytic Therapy on the Incidence of Early Left Ventricular Infarct Expansion in Acute Anterior Myocardial Infarction

Abstract Objectives: To determine the incidence of early left ventricular infarct expansion within five days after first anterior ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction and the effect of early thrombolytic therapy on the incidence of early infarct expansion compared with late thrombolytic therapy. Methods: In a prospective study of 101 patients (75males and 26 females), with the first attack of acute anterior myocardial infarction, their ages ranged from 40-80 years (mean age: 61.07±10.78) who had been admitted to the Coronary Care Unit of Hawler Teaching Hospital for the period from July 2007 through to September 2009. Those who received alteplase ≤3 hours of acute myocardial infarction were labelled as group-I (49 patients) and those who received alteplase >3-12 hours were labelled as group-II (52 patients). Results: The incidence of early left ventricular infarct expansion was diagnosed by 2D-echocardiography and was found to be 17.8%. Group I patients had a lower incidence of early left ventricular infarct expansion (8.16%) compared with group-II (26.92%; p=0.014). Patients with early left ventricular infarct expansion had a higher frequency rate of left ventricular systolic dysfunction (94.44%) compared to patients without early left ventricular infarct expansion (8.43%; p<0.001). There was a significant difference in the incidence of in-hospital mortality between the patients who developed early left ventricular infarct expansion (11.1%) compared with patients without early left ventricular infarct expansion (1.2%; p=0.025). Conclusion: Early reperfusion therapy in acute anterior myocardial infarction can decrease the incidence of early left ventricular infarct expansion, preserve left ventricular systolic function and decrease in-hospital mortality

Effect of Humic Acids Extracted From Different Organic Sources and Inoculation of Bacillus Subtilis or Aspergillus Niger in Alkaline Phosphatase Activity in Calcareous Soil

Humic acids have received a large attention of researching and development as amendments for poor fertility conditions and deteriorating physical properties,  since the process of extracting  is an easy common process to implement, as well as dilution of these acids with water enables  to be used at economically acceptable levels over large areas. It is necessary to notice that the properties of these acids depending on the organic source and the concentration added to the soil.A laboratory experiment was conducted at the department of soil Sciences and water resources, collage of Agriculture ,University of Basrah ,Iraq to demonstrate the effect of humic acids extracted from different sources and inoculation with Bacillus subtilis or Aspergillus niger  on alkaline phosphatase activity in  calcareous soil calcareous, southern Iraq. Humic acids extracted from  wheat straw, alfalfa leaves, goat manure, and poultry manure which composted previously . Humic acid levels were 0, 25 and 50 L ha-1 .The soil also inoculated with  Bacillus subtilis or Aspergillus niger, then samples were incubated at  28±2°C. After 7 or 30 days of incubation the activity of  alkaline phosphatase  was estimated . Enzyme phosphatase activity was increased in soils treated with humic acid  as compared to control with highest activity at Poultry manure (391.54 µg p-nitrophenol gm-1 soil.1h-1).The results also indicated that increasing the level of humic acid  significantly increased enzyme activity. For soil treated with  Bacillus subtilis and Aspergillus niger , phosphatase activity increased-as compared to control with a higher activity at Bacilluas subtilis (373.1 µg p-nitrophenol gm-1 soil.1h-1)

BIOINFORMATICS EVALUATION OF CRISP2 GENE SNPs AND THEIR IMPACTS ON PROTEIN

This study evaluated the CRISP2 gene's functional single nucleotide polymorphisms, and its results may be advantageous for future population-based studies and early diagnostic discoveries, particularly in developing effective treatments. The CRISP2 gene encodes a secretory protein with a high cysteine content, which belongs to the family of cysteine-rich secretory proteins (CRISP). SNPs are genetic variations that may affect a protein's structure or functionality. Prior to carrying out a broader population investigation, it is possible to evaluate suspected functional SNPs since it is challenging to uncover functional SNPs in disease-linked genes. As a result, using various bioinformatic prediction models, the potentially harmful three SNPs of the CRISP2 gene were predicted in this in-silico study from the neutral ones. Out of a pool of 260 nsSNPs, three SNPs (L56V, M176I, and C196R) been selected to anticipate their impacts on functions and structures along with their capability to impair protein stability. Actually, two of the three SNPs in the CRISP2 gene L56V and C196R were identified as possibly detrimental, although M176I was not. But all of these SNPs dropped significantly protein stability, per the I-Mutant suite

GENETIC POLYMORPHISMS OF CRISP2 GENE IN ASSOCIATION WITH INFERTILITY IN IRAQI PATIENTS

The objective of this study was to evaluate the association and effect of CRISP2 variants on the risk of asthenozoospermia, a male infertility condition marked by absent or diminished sperm motility. There are numerous reasons why individuals develop asthenozoospermia. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the molecular mechanisms underlying this condition of infertility. Furthermore, seminal plasma, a rich source of sperm quality-related biomarkers, transports the many spermatozoa pools that make up human ejaculate down the epididymis. These spermatozoa vary in size, shape, and motility. The morphology and mobility of male ejaculated spermatozoa are affected by a number of genes, including CRISP2. In seminal samples from 120 Iraqi infertile male patients and 40 healthy males who were matched for age, gender, and ethnicity as a control group, the connection of the CRISP2 gene single nucleotide polymorphisms L56V, M176I, and C196R with infertility was investigated. According to statistical analysis of the genotype distribution of these three nsSNPs of the CRISP2 gene in patients with the asthenozoospermia subgroup and the control group, there weren't detectable differences in genotype distribution between AS, OAS, OTA, and fertile men in the Iraqi research sample. Based on allele frequencies, C, T, and G were determined to be protective alleles, with OR values of 0.74, 0.64, and 2.0, respectively

ASSOCIATION BETWEEN TOXOPLASMA GONDII INFECTION IN WOMEN AND THE PRESENCE OF CARDIOLIPIN AND PHOSPHOLIPID ANTIBODIES

IgG and IgM cardiolipin and phospholipid antibodies were measured, by an ELISA technique, in the sera of patients with toxoplasmosis. Immunological methods for autoantibodies had been applied by ELISA. Regarding Anti-cardiolipin it was revealed that 24.7% of toxoplasmosis cases versus 0% of control group showed significant positive result (P=0.0412) . Whereas, 12.5% of toxoplasmosis patients and 12% of healthy controls had anti-cardiolipin antibodies, with no significant differences (P=0.554) between these two groups