Practical rare event sampling for extreme mesoscale weather

Extreme mesoscale weather, including tropical cyclones, squall lines, and floods, can be enormously damaging and yet challenging to simulate; hence, there is a pressing need for more efficient simulation strategies. Here we present a new rare event sampling algorithm called Quantile Diffusion Monte Carlo (Quantile DMC). Quantile DMC is a simple-to-use algorithm that can sample extreme tail behavior for a wide class of processes. We demonstrate the advantages of Quantile DMC compared to other sampling methods and discuss practical aspects of implementing Quantile DMC. To test the feasibility of Quantile DMC for extreme mesoscale weather, we sample extremely intense realizations of two historical tropical cyclones, 2010 Hurricane Earl and 2015 Hurricane Joaquin. Our results demonstrate Quantile DMC's potential to provide low-variance extreme weather statistics while highlighting the work that is necessary for Quantile DMC to attain greater efficiency in future applications.Comment: 18 pages, 9 figure

Property management strategies for institutional investors in the '90s

Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Architecture, 1996.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 91-92).by John A. Willand.M.S

Exact Baryon, Strangeness and Charge Conservation in Hadronic Gas Models

Relativistic heavy ion collisions are studied assuming that particles can be described by a hadron gas in thermal and chemical equilibrium. The exact conservation of baryon number, strangeness and charge are explicitly taken into account. For heavy ions the effect arising from the neutron surplus becomes important and leads to a substantial increase in e.g. the $\pi^-/\pi^+$ ratio. A method is developed which is very well suited for the study of small systems.Comment: 5 pages, 5 Postscript figure

First upper limit analysis and results from LIGO science data: stochastic background

I describe analysis of correlations in the outputs of the three LIGO interferometers from LIGO's first science run, held over 17 days in August and September of 2002, and the resulting upper limit set on a stochastic background of gravitational waves. By searching for cross-correlations between the LIGO detectors in Livingston, LA and Hanford, WA, we are able to set a 90% confidence level upper limit of h_{100}^2 Omega_0 < 23 +/- 4.6.Comment: 7 pages; 1 eps figures; proceeding from 2003 Edoardo Amaldi Meeting on Gravitational Wave

HQET chromomagnetic interaction at two loops

We present the coefficient of the chromomagnetic interaction operator, the only unknown coefficient in the Heavy Quark Effective Theory (HQET) lagrangian up to the $1/m$ level, with the two-loop accuracy by matching scattering amplitudes of an on-shell heavy quark in an external field in full QCD and HQET, and obtain the two-loop anomalous dimension of this operator in HQET.Comment: 10 pages, LaTeX2e, 2 eps figures included. Revised discussion of (n_f-1)-flavour HQET include

On the relation between effective supersymmetric actions in different dimensions

We make two remarks: (i) Renormalization of the effective charge in a 4--dimensional (supersymmetric) gauge theory is determined by the same graphs and is rigidly connected to the renormalization of the metric on the moduli space of the classical vacua of the corresponding reduced quantum mechanical system. Supersymmetry provides constraints for possible modifications of the metric, and this gives us a simple proof of nonrenormalization theorems for the original 4-dimensional theory. (ii) We establish a nontrivial relationship between the effective (0+1)-dimensional and (1+1)-dimensional Lagrangia (the latter represent conventional Kahlerian sigma models).Comment: 15 pages, 2 figure

The Primordial Gravitational Wave Background in String Cosmology

We find the spectrum P(w)dw of the gravitational wave background produced in the early universe in string theory. We work in the framework of String Driven Cosmology, whose scale factors are computed with the low-energy effective string equations as well as selfconsistent solutions of General Relativity with a gas of strings as source. The scale factor evolution is described by an early string driven inflationary stage with an instantaneous transition to a radiation dominated stage and successive matter dominated stage. This is an expanding string cosmology always running on positive proper cosmic time. A careful treatment of the scale factor evolution and involved transitions is made. A full prediction on the power spectrum of gravitational waves without any free-parameters is given. We study and show explicitly the effect of the dilaton field, characteristic to this kind of cosmologies. We compute the spectrum for the same evolution description with three differents approachs. Some features of gravitational wave spectra, as peaks and asymptotic behaviours, are found direct consequences of the dilaton involved and not only of the scale factor evolution. A comparative analysis of different treatments, solutions and compatibility with observational bounds or detection perspectives is made.Comment: LaTeX, 50 pages with 2 figures. Uses epsfig and psfra

On the Relation between Solar Activity and Clear-Sky Terrestrial Irradiance

The Mauna Loa Observatory record of direct-beam solar irradiance measurements for the years 1958-2010 is analysed to investigate the variation of clear-sky terrestrial insolation with solar activity over more than four solar cycles. The raw irradiance data exhibit a marked seasonal cycle, extended periods of lower irradiance due to emissions of volcanic aerosols, and a long-term decrease in atmospheric transmission independent of solar activity. After correcting for these effects, it is found that clear-sky terrestrial irradiance typically varies by about 0.2 +/- 0.1% over the course of the solar cycle, a change of the same order of magnitude as the variations of the total solar irradiance above the atmosphere. An investigation of changes in the clear-sky atmospheric transmission fails to find a significant trend with sunspot number. Hence there is no evidence for a yet unknown effect amplifying variations of clear-sky irradiance with solar activity.Comment: 16 pages, 7 figures, in press at Solar Physics; minor changes to the text to match final published versio