The significance of isolated de novo red patches in the bladder in patients referred with suspected urinary tract cancer: Results from the IDENTIFY study

ObjectivesTo assess the contemporary malignancy rate in isolated de novo red patches in the bladder and associated risk factors for better selection of red patch biopsy. PatientsPatients from the IDENTIFY dataset; Patients referred to secondary care with suspected urinary tract cancer and found to have isolated de novo red patches on cystoscopy. MethodsWe reported the unadjusted cancer prevalence in isolated de novo red patches that were biopsied; multivariable logistic regression was used to explore cancer-associated risk factors including age, sex, smoking, type of haematuria, LUTS, UTIs and a suspicious-looking red patch (as reported by the cystoscopist). Sub-analysis of these by clinical role and experience was performed. ResultsA total of 1110 patients with isolated de novo red patches were included. 41.5% (n = 461) were biopsied, with a malignancy rate of 12.8% (59/461), which was significantly higher in suspicious versus non-suspicious red patches (19.1% vs. 2.81%, p < 0.01). There was a significant association between bladder cancer and age (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01-1.07, p = 0.01), smoking history (OR 2.62, 95% CI 1.09-6.27, p = 0.03) and suspicious-looking patch (OR 6.50, 95% CI 2.47-17.1, p < 0.01). The majority of malignancies were in over 60-year-olds. Malignancy rates in suspicious versus non-suspicious red patches did not differ significantly between clinical roles or experiences. Limitations included subjectivity in classifying a suspicious patch and selection bias as not all patches were biopsied. ResultsA total of 1110 patients with isolated de novo red patches were included. 41.5% (n = 461) were biopsied, with a malignancy rate of 12.8% (59/461), which was significantly higher in suspicious versus non-suspicious red patches (19.1% vs. 2.81%, p < 0.01). There was a significant association between bladder cancer and age (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01-1.07, p = 0.01), smoking history (OR 2.62, 95% CI 1.09-6.27, p = 0.03) and suspicious-looking patch (OR 6.50, 95% CI 2.47-17.1, p < 0.01). The majority of malignancies were in over 60-year-olds. Malignancy rates in suspicious versus non-suspicious red patches did not differ significantly between clinical roles or experiences. Limitations included subjectivity in classifying a suspicious patch and selection bias as not all patches were biopsied. ConclusionsMany patients still undergo unnecessary biopsies under general anaesthetic for isolated de novo red patches. Clinicians should consider the patient's age, smoking status and how suspicious-looking the patch is, before deciding on surveillance versus biopsy to improve cancer diagnostic yield

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

The IDENTIFY study: the investigation and detection of urological neoplasia in patients referred with suspected urinary tract cancer - a multicentre observational study

Objective To evaluate the contemporary prevalence of urinary tract cancer (bladder cancer, upper tract urothelial cancer [UTUC] and renal cancer) in patients referred to secondary care with haematuria, adjusted for established patient risk markers and geographical variation. Patients and Methods This was an international multicentre prospective observational study. We included patients aged ≥16 years, referred to secondary care with suspected urinary tract cancer. Patients with a known or previous urological malignancy were excluded. We estimated the prevalence of bladder cancer, UTUC, renal cancer and prostate cancer; stratified by age, type of haematuria, sex, and smoking. We used a multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression to adjust cancer prevalence for age, type of haematuria, sex, smoking, hospitals, and countries. Results Of the 11 059 patients assessed for eligibility, 10 896 were included from 110 hospitals across 26 countries. The overall adjusted cancer prevalence (n = 2257) was 28.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 22.3–34.1), bladder cancer (n = 1951) 24.7% (95% CI 19.1–30.2), UTUC (n = 128) 1.14% (95% CI 0.77–1.52), renal cancer (n = 107) 1.05% (95% CI 0.80–1.29), and prostate cancer (n = 124) 1.75% (95% CI 1.32–2.18). The odds ratios for patient risk markers in the model for all cancers were: age 1.04 (95% CI 1.03–1.05; P < 0.001), visible haematuria 3.47 (95% CI 2.90–4.15; P < 0.001), male sex 1.30 (95% CI 1.14–1.50; P < 0.001), and smoking 2.70 (95% CI 2.30–3.18; P < 0.001). Conclusions A better understanding of cancer prevalence across an international population is required to inform clinical guidelines. We are the first to report urinary tract cancer prevalence across an international population in patients referred to secondary care, adjusted for patient risk markers and geographical variation. Bladder cancer was the most prevalent disease. Visible haematuria was the strongest predictor for urinary tract cancer