Probabilistic fire spread forecast as a management tool in an operational setting

Background: An approach to predict fire growth in an operational setting, with the potential to be used as a decision-support tool for fire management, is described and evaluated. The operational use of fire behaviour models has mostly followed a deterministic approach, however, the uncertainty associated with model predictions needs to be quantified and included in wildfire planning and decision-making process during fire suppression activities. We use FARSITE to simulate the growth of a large wildfire. Probabilistic simulations of fire spread are performed, accounting for the uncertainty of some model inputs and parameters. Deterministic simulations were performed for comparison. We also assess the degree to which fire spread modelling and satellite active fire data can be combined, to forecast fire spread during large wildfires events. Results: Uncertainty was propagated through the FARSITE fire spread modelling system by randomly defining 100 different combinations of the independent input variables and parameters, and running the correspondent fire spread simulations in order to produce fire spread probability maps. Simulations were initialized with the reported ignition location and with satellite active fires. The probabilistic fire spread predictions show great potential to be used as a fire management tool in an operational setting, providing valuable information regarding the spatial–temporal distribution of burn probabilities. The advantage of probabilistic over deterministic simulations is clear when both are compared. Re-initializing simulations with satellite active fires did not improve simulations as expected. Conclusion: This information can be useful to anticipate the growth of wildfires through the landscape with an associated probability of occurrence. The additional information regarding when, where and with what probability the fire might be in the next few hours can ultimately help minimize the negative environmental, social and economic impacts of these firesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Black holes, gravitational waves and fundamental physics:a roadmap

The grand challenges of contemporary fundamental physics---dark matter, dark energy, vacuum energy, inflation and early universe cosmology, singularities and the hierarchy problem---all involve gravity as a key component. And of all gravitational phenomena, black holes stand out in their elegant simplicity, while harbouring some of the most remarkable predictions of General Relativity: event horizons, singularities and ergoregions. The hitherto invisible landscape of the gravitational Universe is being unveiled before our eyes: the historical direct detection of gravitational waves by the LIGO-Virgo collaboration marks the dawn of a new era of scientific exploration. Gravitational-wave astronomy will allow us to test models of black hole formation, growth and evolution, as well as models of gravitational-wave generation and propagation. It will provide evidence for event horizons and ergoregions, test the theory of General Relativity itself, and may reveal the existence of new fundamental fields. The synthesis of these results has the potential to radically reshape our understanding of the cosmos and of the laws of Nature. The purpose of this work is to present a concise, yet comprehensive overview of the state of the art in the relevant fields of research, summarize important open problems, and lay out a roadmap for future progress

Global Roadkill Data: a dataset on terrestrial vertebrate mortality caused by collision with vehicles

Roadkill is widely recognized as one of the primary negative effects of roads on many wildlife species and also has socioeconomic impacts when they result in accidents. A comprehensive dataset of roadkill locations is essential to evaluate the factors contributing to roadkill risk and to enhance our comprehension of its impact on wildlife populations and socioeconomic dimensions. We undertook a compilation of roadkill records, encompassing both published and unpublished data gathered from road surveys or opportunistic sources. GLOBAL ROADKILL DATA includes 208,570 roadkill records of terrestrial vertebrates from 54 countries across six continents, encompassing data collected between 1971 and 2024. This dataset serves to minimise the collection of redundant data and acts as a valuable resource for local and macro scale analysis regarding rates of roadkill, road- and landscape-related features associated with risk of roadkill, vulnerability of species to road traffic, and populations at risk of local extinction. The objective of this dataset is to promote scientific progress in infrastructure ecology and terrestrial vertebrate conservation while limiting the socio-economic costs

The IDENTIFY study: the investigation and detection of urological neoplasia in patients referred with suspected urinary tract cancer - a multicentre observational study

Objective To evaluate the contemporary prevalence of urinary tract cancer (bladder cancer, upper tract urothelial cancer [UTUC] and renal cancer) in patients referred to secondary care with haematuria, adjusted for established patient risk markers and geographical variation. Patients and Methods This was an international multicentre prospective observational study. We included patients aged ≥16 years, referred to secondary care with suspected urinary tract cancer. Patients with a known or previous urological malignancy were excluded. We estimated the prevalence of bladder cancer, UTUC, renal cancer and prostate cancer; stratified by age, type of haematuria, sex, and smoking. We used a multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression to adjust cancer prevalence for age, type of haematuria, sex, smoking, hospitals, and countries. Results Of the 11 059 patients assessed for eligibility, 10 896 were included from 110 hospitals across 26 countries. The overall adjusted cancer prevalence (n = 2257) was 28.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 22.3–34.1), bladder cancer (n = 1951) 24.7% (95% CI 19.1–30.2), UTUC (n = 128) 1.14% (95% CI 0.77–1.52), renal cancer (n = 107) 1.05% (95% CI 0.80–1.29), and prostate cancer (n = 124) 1.75% (95% CI 1.32–2.18). The odds ratios for patient risk markers in the model for all cancers were: age 1.04 (95% CI 1.03–1.05; P < 0.001), visible haematuria 3.47 (95% CI 2.90–4.15; P < 0.001), male sex 1.30 (95% CI 1.14–1.50; P < 0.001), and smoking 2.70 (95% CI 2.30–3.18; P < 0.001). Conclusions A better understanding of cancer prevalence across an international population is required to inform clinical guidelines. We are the first to report urinary tract cancer prevalence across an international population in patients referred to secondary care, adjusted for patient risk markers and geographical variation. Bladder cancer was the most prevalent disease. Visible haematuria was the strongest predictor for urinary tract cancer

Disección de arteria pulmonar. A propósito de un caso

The dissection of the pulmonary artery is an extremely rare disease that is related to the presence of severe pulmonary hypertension of long evolution, in the course of congenital heart diseases or primary pulmonary hypertension. This is the case of a woman with a history of ostium secundum type atrial septal defect that refused to undergo surgical treatment and presented suprasystemic pulmonary hypertension secondary to Eisenmenger’s syndrome, in the course of its natural evolution, and comes to our hospital complaining of chest pain and dyspnea at rest, and where pulmonary artery dissection was diagnosed.La disección de la arteria pulmonar es una enfermedad extremadamente rara que se relaciona con la presencia de hipertensión pulmonar grave de larga evolución, en el curso de cardiopatías congénitas o de hipertensión pulmonar primaria. Se presenta el caso de una mujer, con antecedentes de comunicación interauricular tipo ostium secundum que se negó a recibir tratamiento quirúrgico y presentó hipertensión pulmonar suprasistémica que desarrolló un síndrome de Eisenmenger en el curso de su evolución natural, y acude a nuestro centro por dolor precordial y disnea en reposo donde se diagnostica disección de la arteria pulmonar