Predicting the Success of Invasive Species in the Great Bay Estuarine Researve

The University of New Hampshire Zoology Department reports on a study designed to continue monitoring the distribution of invasive species in the Great Bay Estuary and to carry out laboratory experiments designed to test the effects of salinity on ascidian mortality and determine predators of ascidian species. Researchers collected presence/absence and abundance data of invasive species at four sites within the Great Bay Estuarine System. The report gives a brief description of the results of the monitoring program to compare results obtained from 2006 to 2007 and to assess the response of ascidians to varying salinity and predators. This report specifically includes monitoring data from 2007 and results of laboratory and field experiments examining the effects of salinity and predators on ascidian distribution

Does settlement plate material matter? The influence of substrate type on fouling community development

Benthic community composition and ascidian abundance can differ dramatically between adjacent man-made and natural substrates. Although multiple factors, including light exposure, surface orientation, predation exposure, and habitat type, are known to contribute to these patterns, few studies have directly tested the influence of substrate identity on community development. We compared fouling communities on settlement plates composed of commonly occurring natural (granite) and artificial (concrete, high density polyethylene, and PVC) marine materials deployed from late May to mid November 2014 from a floating dock in Newcastle, NH. We sought to determine if observed patterns resulted from differential recruitment onto substrate materials or post-settlement survival and growth. To do this, half of the plates were cleaned during bi-weekly examinations, and half were left un-cleaned. Preliminary analyses indicate that community composition differs between substrate types. These results will help us understand how substrate features contribute to non-native species establishment and habitat dominance, and may inform decisions regarding material usage in marine construction. These findings also underline the importance of settlement substrate choice in scientific studies, as plate material may influence experimental conclusions

On finite-size Lyapunov exponents in multiscale systems

We study the effect of regime switches on finite size Lyapunov exponents (FSLEs) in determining the error growth rates and predictability of multiscale systems. We consider a dynamical system involving slow and fast regimes and switches between them. The surprising result is that due to the presence of regimes the error growth rate can be a non-monotonic function of initial error amplitude. In particular, troughs in the large scales of FSLE spectra is shown to be a signature of slow regimes, whereas fast regimes are shown to cause large peaks in the spectra where error growth rates far exceed those estimated from the maximal Lyapunov exponent. We present analytical results explaining these signatures and corroborate them with numerical simulations. We show further that these peaks disappear in stochastic parametrizations of the fast chaotic processes, and the associated FSLE spectra reveal that large scale predictability properties of the full deterministic model are well approximated whereas small scale features are not properly resolved.Comment: Accepted for publication in Chao

Correlated fluctuations in the exciton dynamics and spectroscopy of DNA

The absorption of ultraviolet light creates excitations in DNA, which subsequently start moving in the helix. Their fate is important for an understanding of photo damage, and is determined by the interplay of electronic couplings between bases and the structure of the DNA environment. We model the effect of dynamical fluctuations in the environment and study correlation, which is present when multiple base pairs interact with the same mode in the environment. We find that the correlations strongly affect the exciton dynamics, and show how they are observed in the decay of the anisotropy as a function of a coherence and a population time in a non-linear optical experiment

Ruelle-Pollicott Resonances of Stochastic Systems in Reduced State Space. Part II: Stochastic Hopf Bifurcation

The spectrum of the generator (Kolmogorov operator) of a diffusion process, referred to as the Ruelle-Pollicott (RP) spectrum, provides a detailed characterization of correlation functions and power spectra of stochastic systems via decomposition formulas in terms of RP resonances. Stochastic analysis techniques relying on the theory of Markov semigroups for the study of the RP spectrum and a rigorous reduction method is presented in Part I. This framework is here applied to study a stochastic Hopf bifurcation in view of characterizing the statistical properties of nonlinear oscillators perturbed by noise, depending on their stability. In light of the H\"ormander theorem, it is first shown that the geometry of the unperturbed limit cycle, in particular its isochrons, is essential to understand the effect of noise and the phenomenon of phase diffusion. In addition, it is shown that the spectrum has a spectral gap, even at the bifurcation point, and that correlations decay exponentially fast. Explicit small-noise expansions of the RP eigenvalues and eigenfunctions are then obtained, away from the bifurcation point, based on the knowledge of the linearized deterministic dynamics and the characteristics of the noise. These formulas allow one to understand how the interaction of the noise with the deterministic dynamics affect the decay of correlations. Numerical results complement the study of the RP spectrum at the bifurcation, revealing useful scaling laws. The analysis of the Markov semigroup for stochastic bifurcations is thus promising in providing a complementary approach to the more geometric random dynamical system approach. This approach is not limited to low-dimensional systems and the reduction method presented in part I is applied to a stochastic model relevant to climate dynamics in part III

Block copolymers of poly(L-lactide) and poly(ε-caprolactone) or poly(ethylene glycol) prepared by reactive extrusion

Blends of poly(L-lactide) (PLLA) and poly(-caprolactone) (PCL) were prepared in a co-rotating twin screw miniextruder (40 rpm, 200°). It was attempted to prepare multiblock copolymers by allowing a controlled number of transesterification reactions. Various cat-alysts (n-Bu3SnOMe, Sn(Oct)2, Ti(OBu)4, Y(Oct)3, para-toluene sulphonic acid) were introduced to promote these transesterification reactions. However, PLLA degradation by ring-closing depolymerization was the dominant reaction in every case. Alternatively, after showing that L-lactide can be conveniently polymerized in the extruder, L-lactide and hy-droxyl functionalized prepolymers of PCL or poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG) were fed to the extruder in the presence of stannous octoate. Monomer conversions of over 90% and effective transformation of all hydroxyl end groups present were generally reached. Di-and triblock copolymers could be prepared in this way with characteristics very similar to polymers prepared in a batch-type process, but with considerably reduced reaction times in a fashion, which is, in principle, scaleable to a continuous process for the production of such block copolymers

Measuring the impact of observations on the predictability of the Kuroshio Extension in a shallow-water model

In this paper sequential importance sampling is used to assess the impact of observations on a ensemble prediction for the decadal path transitions of the Kuroshio Extension (KE). This particle filtering approach gives access to the probability density of the state vector, which allows us to determine the predictive power — an entropy based measure — of the ensemble prediction. The proposed set-up makes use of an ensemble that, at each time, samples the climatological probability distribution. Then, in a post-processing step, the impact of different sets of observations is measured by the increase in predictive power of the ensemble over the climatological signal during one-year. The method is applied in an identical-twin experiment for the Kuroshio Extension using a reduced-gravity shallow water model. We investigate the impact of assimilating velocity observations from different locations during the elongated and the contracted meandering state of the KE. Optimal observations location correspond to regions with strong potential vorticity gradients. For the elongated state the optimal location is in the first meander of the KE. During the contracted state of the KE it is located south of Japan, where the Kuroshio separates from the coast

Inference of the Russian drug community from one of the largest social networks in the Russian Federation

The criminal nature of narcotics complicates the direct assessment of a drug community, while having a good understanding of the type of people drawn or currently using drugs is vital for finding effective intervening strategies. Especially for the Russian Federation this is of immediate concern given the dramatic increase it has seen in drug abuse since the fall of the Soviet Union in the early nineties. Using unique data from the Russian social network 'LiveJournal' with over 39 million registered users worldwide, we were able for the first time to identify the on-line drug community by context sensitive text mining of the users' blogs using a dictionary of known drug-related official and 'slang' terminology. By comparing the interests of the users that most actively spread information on narcotics over the network with the interests of the individuals outside the on-line drug community, we found that the 'average' drug user in the Russian Federation is generally mostly interested in topics such as Russian rock, non-traditional medicine, UFOs, Buddhism, yoga and the occult. We identify three distinct scale-free sub-networks of users which can be uniquely classified as being either 'infectious', 'susceptible' or 'immune'.Comment: 12 pages, 11 figure