Climate resilience in the United Kingdom wine production sector: CREWS-UK

As cool climate viticulture rapidly expands, the England and Wales wine sector is winning international acclaim, particularly for its sparkling wines, and is attracting significant investment. Supported by warming climate trends during the growing season, wine producers are establishing new vineyards planted predominantly with Pinot Noir and Chardonnay. Grape-friendly weather conditions in 2018 led to a record harvest and may be a sign of good things to come. Long term (100-years) Growing Season Average Temperatures (GSTs) in south-east and south-central England have noticeably increased with 6 of the top 10 warmest growing seasons (April–October), over the last 100 years, occurring since 2005. However, weather and growing season conditions fluctuate markedly from year to year, meaning that yields and grape quality continue to vary significantly. Weather extremes are anticipated to become more frequent under future climate change, further threatening the stability of production. Current uncertainty over future climatic conditions during the growing season and their potential effects on viticulture in the UK exposes both existing producers and potential investors to unquantified risks and opportunities. The CREWS-UK climate resilience research project is generating actionable information on how climate change may affect the wine production sector, to support better decision-making and investment

Five minutes with Danny Dorling: “The current increase in global inequality is completely unsustainable”

Rising inequality is one of the most controversial issues in European politics. In an interview with EUROPP’s editor Stuart Brown, Danny Dorling discusses the problems posed by inequality, the situation within the UK, and why the current trends are likely to prove unsustainable

A suitability model for viticulture in England and Wales: opportunities for investment, sector growth and increased climate resilience

Despite continued investment and evidence of high quality wine production, English and Welsh wine grape yields remain low. To increase sector resilience to weather and climate risks we present the first combined terrestrial and climatic English and Welsh Viticulture Suitability (EWVS) model. Results show many existing vineyards (≥ 1 ha) are sub-optimally located. Limiting the model to the top 20% of suitable land in England and Wales resulted in 33,700 ha of prime viticulture land being identified, a scale just larger than the Champagne region of France. Beyond Kent and Sussex, large areas in Essex, with the warmest 30-year (1981–2010) Growing Season Average Temperature (13.9°C) on mainland Britain, and Suffolk, where few vineyards presently exist, appear especially suitable for viticulture. The EWVS model developed through this work allows, for the first time, a rapid assessment of land at local, regional and national scales to inform investment and policy related decisions

A change in temperature modulates defence to yellow (stripe) rust in wheat line UC1041 independently of resistance gene Yr36

Background Rust diseases are of major importance in wheat production worldwide. With the constant evolution of new rust strains and their adaptation to higher temperatures, consistent and durable disease resistance is a key challenge. Environmental conditions affect resistance gene performance, but the basis for this is poorly understood. Results Here we show that a change in day temperature affects wheat resistance to Puccinia striiformis f. sp tritici (Pst), the causal agent of yellow (or stripe) rust. Using adult plants of near-isogenic lines UC1041 +/- Yr36, there was no significant difference between Pst percentage uredia coverage in plants grown at day temperatures of 18°C or 25°C in adult UC1041 + Yr36 plants. However, when plants were transferred to the lower day temperature at the time of Pst inoculation, infection increased up to two fold. Interestingly, this response was independent of Yr36, which has previously been reported as a temperature-responsive resistance gene as Pst development in adult UC1041 -Yr36 plants was similarly affected by the plants experiencing a temperature reduction. In addition, UC1041 -Yr36 plants grown at the lower temperature then transferred to the higher temperature were effectively resistant and a temperature change in either direction was shown to affect Pst development up to 8 days prior to inoculation. Results for seedlings were similar, but more variable compared to adult plants. Enhanced resistance to Pst was observed in seedlings of UC1041 and the cultivar Shamrock when transferred to the higher temperature. Resistance was not affected in seedlings of cultivar Solstice by a temperature change in either direction. Conclusions Yr36 is effective at 18°C, refining the lower range of temperature at which resistance against Pst is conferred compared to previous studies. Results reveal previously uncharacterised defence temperature sensitivity in the UC1041 background which is caused by a change in temperature and independently of Yr36. This novel phenotype is present in some cultivars but absent in others, suggesting that Pst defence may be more stable in some cultivars than others when plants are exposed to varying temperatures

Artificial Neural Network to predict mean monthly total ozone in Arosa, Switzerland

Present study deals with the mean monthly total ozone time series over Arosa, Switzerland. The study period is 1932-1971. First of all, the total ozone time series has been identified as a complex system and then Artificial Neural Networks models in the form of Multilayer Perceptron with back propagation learning have been developed. The models are Single-hidden-layer and Two-hidden-layer Perceptrons with sigmoid activation function. After sequential learning with learning rate 0.9 the peak total ozone period (February-May) concentrations of mean monthly total ozone have been predicted by the two neural net models. After training and validation, both of the models are found skillful. But, Two-hidden-layer Perceptron is found to be more adroit in predicting the mean monthly total ozone concentrations over the aforesaid period.Comment: 22 pages, 14 figure

A geometric proof of the Kochen-Specker no-go theorem

We give a short geometric proof of the Kochen-Specker no-go theorem for non-contextual hidden variables models. Note added to this version: I understand from Jan-Aake Larsson that the construction we give here actually contains the original Kochen-Specker construction as well as many others (Bell, Conway and Kochen, Schuette, perhaps also Peres).Comment: This paper appeared some years ago, before the author was aware of quant-ph. It is relevant to recent developments concerning Kochen-Specker theorem

Area and individual differences in personal crime victimization incidence: The role of individual, lifestyle/routine activities and contextual predictors

This article examines how personal crime differences between areas and between individuals are predicted by area and population heterogeneity and their synergies. It draws on lifestyle/routine activities and social disorganization theories to model the number of personal victimization incidents over individuals including routine activities and area characteristics, respectively, as well as their (cross-cluster) interactions. The methodology employs multilevel or hierarchical negative binomial regression with extra binomial variation using data from the British Crime Survey and the UK Census. Personal crime rates differ substantially across areas, reflecting to a large degree the clustering of individuals with measured vulnerability factors in the same areas. Most factors suggested by theory and previous research are conducive to frequent personal victimization except the following new results. Pensioners living alone in densely populated areas face disproportionally high numbers of personal crimes. Frequent club and pub visits are associated with more personal crimes only for males and adults living with young children, respectively. Ethnic minority individuals experience fewer personal crimes than whites. The findings suggest integrating social disorganization and lifestyle theories and prioritizing resources to the most vulnerable, rather than all, residents of poor and densely populated areas to prevent personal crimes

Using ERA-Interim reanalysis for creating datasets of energy-relevant climate variables

The construction of a bias-adjusted dataset of climate variables at the near surface using ERA-Interim reanalysis is presented. A number of different, variable-dependent, bias-adjustment approaches have been proposed. Here we modify the parameters of different distributions (depending on the variable), adjusting ERA-Interim based on gridded station or direct station observations. The variables are air temperature, dewpoint temperature, precipitation (daily only), solar radiation, wind speed, and relative humidity. These are available on either 3 or 6 h timescales over the period 1979–2016. The resulting bias-adjusted dataset is available through the Climate Data Store (CDS) of the Copernicus Climate Change Data Store (C3S) and can be accessed at present from ftp://ecem.climate.copernicus.eu. The benefit of performing bias adjustment is demonstrated by comparinginitial and bias-adjusted ERA-Interim data against gridded observational fields

Investigating the New Landscapes of Welfare: Housing Policy, Politics and the Emerging Research Agenda

As debates about housing form an increasingly important arena of political controversy, much has been written about the new fissures that have appeared as governments not only struggle to reduce public expenditure deficits but also attempt to address problems such as affordability and homelessness. It is widely anticipated that new conflicts will be played out in the private rental market as access to homeownership becomes unrealistic and the supply of social housing diminishes. However, what other tensions might surface; that hitherto have not been subject to the critical gaze of housing research? In this paper, we provide some thoughts on the nascent policy issues as well as the ideological schisms that are likely to develop in coming years, offering suggestions as to how the focus of housing policy research might be reoriented towards a “politics” framework to capture and better understand the conflicts that are likely to arise

Transplant Accommodation:Are the Lessons Learned from Xenotransplantation Pertinent for Clinical Allotransplantation?

Accommodation refers to a vascularized transplant that has acquired resistance to antibody-mediated rejection (AMR). The term was coined in 1990, but the phenomenon was first described after clinical ABO-incompatible (ABOi) renal transplantation in the 1980s and is recognized as a common outcome in this context today. Because of the absence, until recently of reliable animal models of allograft accommodation, it has been studied extensively by investigators in the xenotransplantation field. With recent advances in the ability to recognize and diagnose AMR in human organs, the growth of desensitization programmes for transplantation into sensitized recipients and the availability of therapies that have the potential to promote accommodation, it is timely to review the literature in this area, identifying lessons that may inform preclinical and clinical studies in the future