TransCom model simulations of CH₄ and related species: linking transport, surface flux and chemical loss with CH₄ variability in the troposphere and lower stratosphere

A chemistry-transport model (CTM) intercomparison experiment (TransCom-CH₄) has been designed to investigate the roles of surface emissions, transport and chemical loss in simulating the global methane distribution. Model simulations were conducted using twelve models and four model variants and results were archived for the period of 1990–2007. All but one model transports were driven by reanalysis products from 3 different meteorological agencies. The transport and removal of CH₄ in six different emission scenarios were simulated, with net global emissions of 513 ± 9 and 514 ± 14 Tg CH₄ yr[superscript −1] for the 1990s and 2000s, respectively. Additionally, sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆) was simulated to check the interhemispheric transport, radon ([supercript 222]Rn) to check the subgrid scale transport, and methyl chloroform (CH₃CCl₃) to check the chemical removal by the tropospheric hydroxyl radical (OH). The results are compared to monthly or annual mean time series of CH₄, SF₆ and CH₃CCl₃ measurements from 8 selected background sites, and to satellite observations of CH₄ in the upper troposphere and stratosphere. Most models adequately capture the vertical gradients in the stratosphere, the average long-term trends, seasonal cycles, interannual variations (IAVs) and interhemispheric (IH) gradients at the surface sites for SF₆, CH₃CCl₃ and CH₄. The vertical gradients of all tracers between the surface and the upper troposphere are consistent within the models, revealing vertical transport differences between models. An average IH exchange time of 1.39 ± 0.18 yr is derived from SF₆ time series. Sensitivity simulations suggest that the estimated trends in exchange time, over the period of 1996–2007, are caused by a change of SF₆ emissions towards the tropics. Using six sets of emission scenarios, we show that the decadal average CH₄ growth rate likely reached equilibrium in the early 2000s due to the flattening of anthropogenic emission growth since the late 1990s. Up to 60% of the IAVs in the observed CH₄ concentrations can be explained by accounting for the IAVs in emissions, from biomass burning and wetlands, as well as meteorology in the forward models. The modeled CH₄ budget is shown to depend strongly on the troposphere-stratosphere exchange rate and thus on the model's vertical grid structure and circulation in the lower stratosphere. The 15-model median CH₄ and CH₃CCl₃ atmospheric lifetimes are estimated to be 9.99 ± 0.08 and 4.61 ± 0.13 yr, respectively, with little IAV due to transport and temperature.United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA-AGAGE Grant NNX11AF17G

Off-line algorithm for calculation of vertical tracer transport in the troposphere due to deep convection

A modified cumulus convection parametrisation scheme is presented. This scheme computes the mass of air transported upward in a cumulus cell using conservation of moisture and a detailed distribution of convective precipitation provided by a reanalysis dataset. The representation of vertical transport within the scheme includes entrainment and detrainment processes in convective updrafts and downdrafts. Output from the proposed parametrisation scheme is employed in the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) global chemical transport model driven by JRA-25/JCDAS reanalysis. The simulated convective precipitation rate and mass fluxes are compared with observations and reanalysis data. A simulation of the short-lived tracer [superscript 222]Rn is used to further evaluate the performance of the cumulus convection scheme. Simulated distributions of [superscript 222]Rn are evaluated against observations at the surface and in the free troposphere, and compared with output from models that participated in the TransCom-CH4 Transport Model Intercomparison. From this comparison, we demonstrate that the proposed convective scheme in general is consistent with observed and modeled results

The European land and inland water CO2, CO, CH4 and N2O balance between 2001 and 2005

Globally, terrestrial ecosystems have absorbed about 30% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions over the period 2000–2007 and inter-hemispheric gradients indicate that a significant fraction of terrestrial carbon sequestration must be north of the Equator. We present a compilation of the CO2, CO, CH4 and N2O balances of Europe following a dual constraint approach in which (1) a landbased balance derived mainly from ecosystem carbon inventories and (2) a land-based balance derived from flux measurements are compared to (3) the atmospheric data-based balance derived from inversions constrained by measurements of atmospheric GHG (greenhouse gas) concentrations. Good agreement between the GHG balances based on fluxes (1294±545 Tg C in CO2-eq yr−1), inventories (1299±200 Tg C in CO2-eq yr−1) and inversions (1210±405 Tg C in CO2-eq yr−1) increases our confidence that the processes underlying the European GHG budget are well understood and reasonably sampled. However, the uncertainty remains large and largely lacks formal estimates. Given that European net land to atmosphere exchanges are determined by a few dominant fluxes, the uncertainty of these key components needs to be formally estimated before efforts could be made to reduce the overall uncertainty. The net land-to-atmosphere flux is a net source for CO2, CO, CH4 and N2O, because the anthropogenic emissions by far exceed the biogenic sink strength. The dual-constraint approach confirmed that the European biogenic sink removes as much as 205±72 Tg C yr−1 from fossil fuel burning from the atmosphere. However, This C is being sequestered in both terrestrial and inland aquatic ecosystems. If the C-cost for ecosystem management is taken into account, the net uptake of ecosystems is estimated to decrease by 45% but still indicates substantial C-sequestration. However, when the balance is extended from CO2 towards the main GHGs, C-uptake by terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems is offset by emissions of non-CO2 GHGs. As such, the European ecosystems are unlikely to contribute to mitigating the effects of climate change.JRC.H.2-Air and Climat

Lower tropospheric ozone over the North China Plain: variability and trends revealed by IASI satellite observations for 2008–2016

China is a highly polluted region, particularly the North China Plain (NCP). However, emission reductions have been occurring in China for about the last 10 years; these reduction measures have been in effect since 2006 for SO2 emissions and since 2010 for NOx emissions. Recent studies have shown a decrease in the NO2 tropospheric column since 2013 that has been attributed to the reduction in NOx emissions. Quantifying how these emission reductions translate regarding ozone concentrations remains unclear due to apparent inconsistencies between surface and satellite observations. In this study, we use the lower tropospheric (LT) columns (surface – 6&thinsp;km&thinsp;a.s.l. – above sea level) derived from the IASI-A satellite instrument to describe the variability and trend in LT ozone over the NCP for the 2008–2016 period. First, we investigate the IASI retrieval stability and robustness based on the influence of atmospheric conditions (thermal conditions and aerosol loading) and retrieval sensitivity changes. We compare IASI-A observations with the independent IASI-B instrument aboard the Metop-B satellite as well as comparing them with surface and ozonesonde measurements. The conclusion from this evaluation is that the LT ozone columns retrieved from IASI-A are reliable for deriving a trend representative of the lower/free troposphere (3–5&thinsp;km). Deseasonalized monthly time series of LT ozone show two distinct periods: the first period (2008–2012) with no significant trend (&lt; − 0.1&thinsp;%&thinsp;yr−1) and a second period (2013–2016) with a highly significant negative trend of −1.2&thinsp;%&thinsp;yr−1, which leads to an overall significant trend of −0.77&thinsp;%&thinsp;yr−1 for the 2008–2016 period. We explore the dynamical and chemical factors that could explain these negative trends using a multivariate linear regression model and chemistry transport model simulations to evaluate the sensitivity of ozone to the reduction in NOx emissions. The results show that the negative trend observed from IASI for the 2013–2016 period is almost equally attributed to large-scale dynamical processes and emissions reduction, with the large El Niño event in 2015–2016 and the reduction of NOx emissions being the main contributors. For the entire 2008–2016 period, large-scale dynamical processes explain more than half of the observed trend, with a possible reduction of the stratosphere–troposphere exchanges being the main contributor. Large-scale transport and advection, evaluated using CO as a proxy, only contributes to a small part of the trends ( ∼ 10&thinsp;%). However, a residual significant negative trend remains; this shows the limitation of linear regression models regarding their ability to account for nonlinear processes such as ozone chemistry and stresses the need for a detailed evaluation of changes in chemical regimes with the altitude.</p

Corrigendum to &quot;Source attribution of the changes in atmospheric methane for 2006–2008&quot; published in Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 3689–3700, 2011

No abstract available

Corrigendum to "Source attribution of the changes in atmospheric methane for 2006–2008" published in Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 3689–3700, 2011

No abstract available