Detecting abundance trends under uncertainty: the influence of budget, observation error and environmental change

ArticleCopyright © 2014 The Authors. Animal Conservation published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Zoological Society of London.Population monitoring must robustly detect trends over time in a cost-effective manner. However, several underlying ecological changes driving population trends may interact differently with observation uncertainty to produce abundance trends that are more or less detectable for a given budget and over a given time period. Errors in detecting these trends include failing to detect declines when they exist (type II), detecting them when they do not exist (type I), detecting trends in one direction when they are actually in another direction (type III) and incorrectly estimating the shape of the trend. Robust monitoring should be able to avoid each of these error types. Using monitoring of two contrasting ungulate species and multiple scenarios of population change (poaching, climate change and road development) in the Serengeti ecosystem as a case study, we used a ‘virtual ecologist’ approach to investigate monitoring effectiveness under uncertainty. We explored how the prevalence of different types of error varies depending on budgetary, observational and environmental conditions. Higher observation error and conducting surveys less frequently increased the likelihood of not detecting trends and misclassifying the shape of the trend. As monitoring period and frequency increased, observation uncertainty was more important in explaining effectiveness. Types I and III errors had low prevalence for both ungulate species. Greater investment in monitoring considerably decreased the likelihood of failing to detect significant trends (type II errors). Our results suggest that it is important to understand the effects of monitoring conditions on perceived trends before making inferences about underlying processes. The impacts of specific threats on population abundance and structure feed through into monitoring effectiveness; hence, monitoring programmes must be designed with the underlying processes to be detected in mind. Here we provide an integrated modelling framework that can produce advice on robust monitoring strategies under uncertainty.Portuguese Foundation for Science and TechnologyEuropean Commissio

A serological survey of ruminant livestock in Kazakhstan during post-Soviet transitions in farming and disease control

The results of a serological survey of livestock in Kazakhstan, carried out in 1997–1998, are reported. Serum samples from 958 animals (cattle, sheep and goats) were tested for antibodies to foot and mouth disease (FMD), bluetongue (BT), epizootic haemorrhagic disease (EHD), rinderpest (RP) and peste des petits ruminants (PPR) viruses, and to Brucella spp. We also investigated the vaccination status of livestock and related this to changes in veterinary provision since independence in 1991. For the 2 diseases under official surveillance (FMD and brucellosis) our results were similar to official data, although we found significantly higher brucellosis levels in 2 districts and widespread ignorance about FMD vaccination status. The seroprevalence for BT virus was 23%, and seropositive animals were widespread suggesting endemicity, despite the disease not having being previously reported. We found a few seropositives for EHDV and PPRV, which may suggest that these diseases are also present in Kazakhstan. An hierarchical model showed that seroprevalence to FMD and BT viruses were clustered at the farm/village level, rather than at a larger spatial scale. This was unexpected for FMD, which is subject to vaccination policies which vary at the raion (county) level

Using local ecological knowledge to assess the status of the Critically Endangered Chinese giant salamander Andrias davidianus in Guizhou Province, China

The Critically Endangered Chinese giant salamander Andrias davidianus, the world's largest amphibian, is severely threatened by unsustainable exploitation of wild individuals. However, field data with which to assess the salamander's status, population trends, or exploitation across its geographical range are limited, and recent field surveys using standard ecological field techniques have typically failed to detect wild individuals. We conducted community-based fieldwork in three national nature reserves (Fanjingshan, Leigongshan and Mayanghe) in Guizhou Province, China, to assess whether local ecological knowledge constitutes a useful tool for salamander conservation. We collected a sample of dated salamander sighting records and associated data from these reserves for comparative assessment of the relative status of salamander populations across the region. Although Fanjingshan and Leigongshan are still priority sites for salamander conservation, few recent sightings were recorded in either reserve, and respondents considered that salamanders had declined locally at both reserves. The species may already be functionally extinct at Mayanghe. Although respondent data on threats to salamanders in Guizhou are more difficult to interpret, overharvesting was the most commonly suggested explanation for salamander declines, and it is likely that the growing salamander farming industry is the primary driver of salamander extraction from Guizhou's reserves. Questionnaire-based surveys can collect novel quantitative data that provide unique insights into the local status of salamander populations, and we advocate wide-scale incorporation of this research approach into future salamander field programmes

Religious Relationships with the Environment in a Tibetan Rural Community : Interactions and Contrasts with Popular Notions of Indigenous Environmentalism

Acknowledgments: We thank Beijing Forestry University, our field assistants Tashi Rabden, Pema Dechin, Tsewang Chomtso and Gele Chopel for their invaluable help, the Forest Bureau of Daocheng county for permission and support, and the people of Samdo for their hospitality and participation. The research was funded by the ESRC and the World Pheasant Association. This paper is a contribution to Imperial College’s Grand Challenges in Ecosystems and the Environment initiative. Two anonymous reviewers gave valuable comments on the manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

A stated preference investigation of household demand for illegally hunted bushmeat in the Serengeti, Tanzania

This paper originates in a research project “Hunting for Sustainability” supported by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development, and the research has been co-funded by Frankfurt Zoological Society.Illegal hunting for bushmeat is regarded as an important cause of biodiversity decline in Africa. We use a ‘stated preferences’ method to obtain information on determinants of demand for bushmeat and two other protein sources, fish and chicken, in villages around the Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. Our study focuses particularly on the impact of price changes, as anticipating and understanding the impact of price changes (whether caused by conservation interventions or market changes) on demand for bushmeat enables effective responses to be planned. We estimate the effects of changes in the price of bushmeat and in the prices of two substitute protein sources – fish and chicken – on household demand for bushmeat. Results suggest that increasing the availability of lower priced protein substitutes would reduce demand for bushmeat, and therefore, potentially pressure on wildlife populations. However, raising the price of bushmeat (e.g. as a result of reducing illegal hunting) would reduce household demand to a greater degree than equivalent decreases in the price of alternative protein sources. In both cases, elasticity of demand parameters are reported, which summarize the relative response to households to these alternative interventions. A 10% rise in bushmeat prices would reduce demand by around 6–7%, while a 10% fall in chicken or fish prices would reduce bushmeat demand by around 3–4%. The response to price changes varied between ethnic groups, and also according to household size (with the direction of the effect depending on whether the substitute was chicken or fish), but was not significantly affected by wealth or income.PostprintPeer reviewe

Making robust policy decision using global biodiversity indicators

In order to influence global policy effectively, conservation scientists need to be able to provide robust predictions of the impact of alternative policies on biodiversity and measure progress towards goals using reliable indicators. We present a framework for using biodiversity indicators predictively to inform policy choices at a global level. The approach is illustrated with two case studies in which we project forwards the impacts of feasible policies on trends in biodiversity and in relevant indicators. The policies are based on targets agreed at the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) meeting in Nagoya in October 2010. The first case study compares protected area policies for African mammals, assessed using the Red List Index; the second example uses the Living Planet Index to assess the impact of a complete halt, versus a reduction, in bottom trawling. In the protected areas example, we find that the indicator can aid in decision-making because it is able to differentiate between the impacts of the different policies. In the bottom trawling example, the indicator exhibits some counter-intuitive behaviour, due to over-representation of some taxonomic and functional groups in the indicator, and contrasting impacts of the policies on different groups caused by trophic interactions. Our results support the need for further research on how to use predictive models and indicators to credibly track trends and inform policy. To be useful and relevant, scientists must make testable predictions about the impact of global policy on biodiversity to ensure that targets such as those set at Nagoya catalyse effective and measurable change

Cetacean <i>Morbillivirus</i>: Current knowledge and future directions

We review the molecular and epidemiological characteristics of cetacean morbillivirus (CeMV) and the diagnosis and pathogenesis of associated disease, with six different strains detected in cetaceans worldwide. CeMV has caused epidemics with high mortality in odontocetes in Europe, the USA and Australia. It represents a distinct species within the Morbillivirus genus. Although most CeMV strains are phylogenetically closely related, recent data indicate that morbilliviruses recovered from Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus), from Western Australia, and a Guiana dolphin (Sotalia guianensis), from Brazil, are divergent. The signaling lymphocyte activation molecule (SLAM) cell receptor for CeMV has been characterized in cetaceans. It shares higher amino acid identity with the ruminant SLAM than with the receptors of carnivores or humans, reflecting the evolutionary history of these mammalian taxa. In Delphinidae, three amino acid substitutions may result in a higher affinity for the virus. Infection is diagnosed by histology, immunohistochemistry, virus isolation, RT-PCR, and serology. Classical CeMV-associated lesions include bronchointerstitial pneumonia, encephalitis, syncytia, and lymphoid depletion associated with immunosuppression. Cetaceans that survive the acute disease may develop fatal secondary infections and chronic encephalitis. Endemically infected, gregarious odontocetes probably serve as reservoirs and vectors. Transmission likely occurs through the inhalation of aerosolized virus but mother to fetus transmission was also reported

Stock Assessment : Why?

The study on the population dynamics of fisheries resources, which received scant attention in the 1970's when emphasis was placed on development of aquaculture throughout the world, is once more-in the 1980's - being given due attention by coastal states in view of the implications of the International Law of the Sea. In order to assess the potentials of the fisheries resources which now come under the jurisdiction for management and development of the coastal states in their exclusive economic zones, scientists at national levels are obliged to go back to such statistics, data and information as are available and try their best to evaluate the status of the resources exploited by their fishermen. Unfortunately, few are lucky enough to be able to do so, while many have had to call for assistance from both national and regional agencies. In many cases, their appeals have not been heard owing to lack of understanding of the need for studies on fish stock assessment

Collapse of the world's largest herbivores

Large wild herbivores are crucial to ecosystems and human societies. We highlight the 74 largest terrestrial herbivore species on Earth (body mass ≥100 kg), the threats they face, their important and often overlooked ecosystem effects, and the conservation efforts needed to save them and their predators from extinction. Large herbivores are generally facing dramatic population declines and range contractions, such that ~60% are threatened with extinction. Nearly all threatened species are in developing countries, where major threats include hunting, land-use change, and resource depression by livestock. Loss of large herbivores can have cascading effects on other species including large carnivores, scavengers, mesoherbivores, small mammals, and ecological processes involving vegetation, hydrology, nutrient cycling, and fire regimes. The rate of large herbivore decline suggests that ever-larger swaths of the world will soon lack many of the vital ecological services these animals provide, resulting in enormous ecological and social costs