Offline to Online Conversion

We consider the problem of converting offline estimators into an online predictor or estimator with small extra regret. Formally this is the problem of merging a collection of probability measures over strings of length 1,2,3,... into a single probability measure over infinite sequences. We describe various approaches and their pros and cons on various examples. As a side-result we give an elementary non-heuristic purely combinatoric derivation of Turing's famous estimator. Our main technical contribution is to determine the computational complexity of online estimators with good guarantees in general.Comment: 20 LaTeX page

Raiders of the Lost Architecture: Kernels for Bayesian Optimization in Conditional Parameter Spaces

In practical Bayesian optimization, we must often search over structures with differing numbers of parameters. For instance, we may wish to search over neural network architectures with an unknown number of layers. To relate performance data gathered for different architectures, we define a new kernel for conditional parameter spaces that explicitly includes information about which parameters are relevant in a given structure. We show that this kernel improves model quality and Bayesian optimization results over several simpler baseline kernels.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures. Appeared in the NIPS 2013 workshop on Bayesian optimizatio

Thermal effects on CH3_3NH3_3PbI3_3 perovskite from ab-initio molecular dynamics simulations

We present a molecular dynamics simulation study of CH$_3$NH$_3$PbI$_3$ based on forces calculated from density functional theory. The simulation were performed on model systems having 8 and 27 unit cells, and for a total simulation time of 40 ps in each case. Analysis of the finite size effects, in particular the mobility of the organic component, suggests that the smaller system is over correlated through the long range electrostatic interaction. In the larger system this finite size artifact is relaxed producing a more reliable description of the anisotropic rotational behavior of the methyl ammonium molecules. The thermal effects on the optical properties of the system were also analyzed. The HOMO-LUMO energy gap fluctuates around its central value with a standard deviation of approximately 0.1 eV. The projected density of states consistently place the Fermi level on the $p$ orbitals of the I atoms, and the lowest virtual state on $p$ orbitals of the Pb atoms throughout the whole simulation trajectory.Comment: 16 pages, 11 figure

MDL Convergence Speed for Bernoulli Sequences

The Minimum Description Length principle for online sequence estimation/prediction in a proper learning setup is studied. If the underlying model class is discrete, then the total expected square loss is a particularly interesting performance measure: (a) this quantity is finitely bounded, implying convergence with probability one, and (b) it additionally specifies the convergence speed. For MDL, in general one can only have loss bounds which are finite but exponentially larger than those for Bayes mixtures. We show that this is even the case if the model class contains only Bernoulli distributions. We derive a new upper bound on the prediction error for countable Bernoulli classes. This implies a small bound (comparable to the one for Bayes mixtures) for certain important model classes. We discuss the application to Machine Learning tasks such as classification and hypothesis testing, and generalization to countable classes of i.i.d. models.Comment: 28 page

Anisotropic damage mechanics for viscoelastic ice

We present a formulation of continuum damage in glacier ice that incorporates the induced anisotropy of the damage effects but restricts these formally to orthotropy. Damage is modeled by a symmetric second rank tensor that structurally plays the role of an internal variable. It may be interpreted as a texture measure that quantifies the effective specific areas over which internal stresses can be transmitted. The evolution equation for the damage tensor is motivated in the reference configuration and pushed forward to the present configuration. A spatially objective constitutive form of the evolution equation for the damage tensor is obtained. The rheology of the damaged ice presumes no volume conservation. Its constitutive relations are derived from the free enthalpy and a dissipation potential, and extends the classical isotropic power law by elastic and damage tensor dependent terms. All constitutive relations are in conformity with the second law of thermodynamic

Nucleate pool boiling investigation on a silicon test section with micro-fabricated cavities

The basic mechanisms of nucleate boiling are still not completely understood, in spite of the many numerical and experimental studies dedicated to the topic. The use of a hybrid code allows reasonable computational times for simulations of a solid plate with a large population of artificial micro-cavities with fixed distribution. This paper analyses the guidelines for the design, through numerical simulations, of the location and sizes of micro-fabricated cavities on a new silicon test section immersed in FC-72 at the saturation temperature for different pressures with an imposed heat flux applied at the back of the plate. Particular focus is on variations of wall temperature around nucleation sites

Experimental pool boiling investigations of vertical coalescence for FC-72 on silicon from an isolated artificial cavity

In this study bubble growth from an isolated artificial cavity micro-fabricated on a horizontal 380 µm thick silicon wafer was investigated. The horizontally oriented boiling surface was heated by a thin resistance heater integrated on the rear of the silicon test section. The temperature was measured using an integrated micro-sensor situated on the boiling surface with the artificial cavity located in its geometrical centre. A resistive track was used as the sensor, which when calibrated, exhibited a near-linear behaviour with increasing temperature. To conduct pool boiling experiments the test section was immersed in degassed fluorinert FC-72. Bubble nucleation, growth and detachment at different pressures were observed using high-speed imaging. Coalescence was observed at the boundary between the isolated bubble and interference regimes. The occurrence of vertical coalescence was found to be more frequent, with increasing wall superheat and decreasing pressure. The equivalent sphere volumes of two bubbles before and after coalescence were evaluated from area measurements. It was observed that the second nucleated bubble is always smaller than its predecessor. The vapour generation appears not to stop during coalescence as the volume of the merged bubble was typically 5-18% larger than the sum of the bubble volumes just before coalescence