A computer program for statistically-based decision analysis

The majority of patients with coronary artery disease do not fall into the well defined populations from randomized clinical trials. Observational databases contain a rich source of information that could be used by practicing physicians to evaluate treatment alternatives for their patients. We describe a computer system, the CABG Kibitzer, which uses an integrated approach to evaluate the treatment alternatives for CAD patients. We combine a statistical multivariate model for calculating survival advantages with DA techniques for assessing patient preferences and sensitivity analysis, to create one tool that physicians find easy to use in daily clinical practice. The development of tools of this kind is a necessary step in making the data of outcome studies accessible to practicing physicians

A pilot Internet "Value of Health" Panel: recruitment, participation and compliance

Objectives To pilot using a panel of members of the public to provide preference data via the Internet Methods A stratified random sample of members of the general public was recruited and familiarised with the standard gamble procedure using an Internet based tool. Health states were perdiodically presented in "sets" corresponding to different conditions, during the study. The following were described: Recruitment (proportion of people approached who were trained); Participation (a) the proportion of people trained who provided any preferences and (b) the proportion of panel members who contributed to each "set" of values; and Compliance (the proportion, per participant, of preference tasks which were completed). The influence of covariates on these outcomes was investigated using univariate and multivariate analyses. Results A panel of 112 people was recruited. 23% of those approached (n = 5,320) responded to the invitation, and 24% of respondents (n = 1,215) were willing to participate (net = 5.5%). However, eventual recruitment rates, following training, were low (2.1% of those approached). Recruitment from areas of high socioeconomic deprivation and among ethnic minority communities was low. Eighteen sets of health state descriptions were considered over 14 months. 74% of panel members carried out at least one valuation task. People from areas of higher socioeconomic deprivation and unmarried people were less likely to participate. An average of 41% of panel members expressed preferences on each set of descriptions. Compliance ranged from 3% to 100%. Conclusion It is feasible to establish a panel of members of the general public to express preferences on a wide range of health state descriptions using the Internet, although differential recruitment and attrition are important challenges. Particular attention to recruitment and retention in areas of high socioeconomic deprivation and among ethnic minority communities is necessary. Nevertheless, the panel approach to preference measurement using the Internet offers the potential to provide specific utility data in a responsive manner for use in economic evaluations and to address some of the outstanding methodological uncertainties in this field

Spotlight on blisibimod and its potential in the treatment of systemic lupus erythematosus: evidence to date

Aleksander Lenert,1 Timothy B Niewold,2 Petar Lenert3 1Division of Rheumatology, University of Kentucky, Kentucky Clinic, Lexington, KY, 2Division of Rheumatology and Department of Immunology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, 3Division of Immunology, Department of Internal Medicine, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA Abstract: B cells in general and BAFF (B cell activating factor of the tumor necrosis factor [TNF] family) in particular have been primary targets of recent clinical trials in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). In 2011, belimumab, a monoclonal antibody against BAFF, became the first biologic agent approved for the treatment of SLE. Follow-up studies have shown excellent long-term safety and tolerability of belimumab. In this review, we critically analyze blisibimod, a novel BAFF-neutralizing agent. In contrast to belimumab that only blocks soluble BAFF trimer but not soluble 60-mer or membrane BAFF, blisibimod blocks with high affinity all three forms of BAFF. Furthermore, blisibimod has a unique structure built on four high-affinity BAFF-binding peptides fused to the IgG1-Fc carrier. It was tested in phase I and II trials in SLE where it showed safety and tolerability. While it failed to reach the primary endpoint in a recent phase II trial, post hoc analysis demonstrated its efficacy in SLE patients with higher disease activity. Based on these results, blisibimod is currently undergoing phase III trials targeting this responder subpopulation of SLE patients. The advantage of blisibimod, compared to its competitors, lies in its higher avidity for BAFF, but a possible drawback may come from its immunogenic potential and the anticipated loss of efficacy over time. Keywords: BAFF, APRIL, lupus, B cells, blisibimo

B cells do not take up bacterial DNA: An essential role for antigen in exposure of DNA to toll-like receptor-9

Murine dendritic cells (DC) and macrophages respond to bacterial CpG DNA through toll-like receptor 9 (TLR9). Although it is frequently assumed that bacterial DNA is a direct stimulus for B cells, published work does not reliably show responses of purified B cells. Here we show that purified splenic B cells did not respond to Escherichia coli DNA with induction of CD86, despite readily responding to single-stranded (ss) phosphodiester CpG oligodeoxynucleotides (ODN). This was due to a combination of weak responses to both long and double-stranded (ds) DNA. B-cell DNA uptake was greatly reduced with increasing DNA length. This contrasts with macrophages where DNA uptake and subsequent responses were enhanced with increasing DNA length. However, when DNA was physically linked to hen egg lysozyme (HEL), HEL-specific B cells showed efficient uptake of DNA, and limited proliferation in response to the HEL-DNA complex. We propose that, in the absence of other signals, B cells have poor uptake and responses to long dsDNA to prevent polyclonal activation. Conversely, when DNA is physically linked to a B-cell receptor (BCR) ligand, its uptake is increased, allowing TLR9-dependent B-cell activation in an antigen-specific manner. We could not generate fragments of E. coli DNA by limited DNaseI digestion that could mimic the stimulatory effect of ss CpG ODN on naive B cells. We suggest that the frequently studied polyclonal B-cell responses to CpG ODN are relevant to therapeutic applications of phosphorothioate-modified CpG-containing ODN, but not to natural responses to foreign or host dsDNA. Immunology and Cell Biology (2011) 89, 517-525; doi:10.1038/icb.2010.112; published online 5 October 201

Application of a disease-specific mapping function to estimate utility gains with effective treatment of schizophrenia

BACKGROUND: Most tools for estimating utilities use clinical trial data from general health status models, such as the 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36). A disease-specific model may be more appropriate. The objective of this study was to apply a disease-specific utility mapping function for schizophrenia to data from a large, 1-year, open-label study of long-acting risperidone and to compare its performance with an SF-36-based utility mapping function. METHODS: Patients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder by DSM-IV criteria received 25, 50, or 75 mg long-acting risperidone every 2 weeks for 12 months. The Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) and SF-36 were used to assess efficacy and health-related quality of life. Movement disorder severity was measured using the Extrapyramidal Symptom Rating Scale (ESRS); data concerning other common adverse effects (orthostatic hypotension, weight gain) were collected. Transforms were applied to estimate utilities. RESULTS: A total of 474 patients completed the study. Long-acting risperidone treatment was associated with a utility gain of 0.051 using the disease-specific function. The estimated gain using an SF-36-based mapping function was smaller: 0.0285. Estimates of gains were only weakly correlated (r = 0.2). Because of differences in scaling and variance, the requisite sample size for a randomized trial to confirm observed effects is much smaller for the disease-specific mapping function (156 versus 672 total subjects). CONCLUSION: Application of a disease-specific mapping function was feasible. Differences in scaling and precision suggest the clinically based mapping function has greater power than the SF-36-based measure to detect differences in utility

Managing obesity through mobile phone applications: a state-of-the-art review from a user-centred design perspective

Evidence has shown that the trend of increasing obesity rates has continued in the last decade. Mobile phone applications, benefiting from their ubiquity, have been increasingly used to address this issue. In order to increase the applications’ acceptance and success, a design and development process that focuses on users, such as User-Centred Design, is necessary. This paper reviews reported studies that concern the design and development of mobile phone applications to prevent obesity, and analyses them from a User-Centred Design perspective. Based on the review results, strengths and weaknesses of the existing studies were identified. Identified strengths included: evidence of the inclusion of multidisciplinary skills and perspectives; user involvement in studies; and the adoption of iterative design practices. Weaknesses included the lack of specificity in the selection of end-users and inconsistent evaluation protocols. The review was concluded by outlining issues and research areas that need to be addressed in the future, including: greater understanding of the effectiveness of sharing data between peers; privacy; and guidelines for designing for behavioural change through mobile phone applications

Secure and scalable deduplication of horizontally partitioned health data for privacy-preserving distributed statistical computation

Background Techniques have been developed to compute statistics on distributed datasets without revealing private information except the statistical results. However, duplicate records in a distributed dataset may lead to incorrect statistical results. Therefore, to increase the accuracy of the statistical analysis of a distributed dataset, secure deduplication is an important preprocessing step. Methods We designed a secure protocol for the deduplication of horizontally partitioned datasets with deterministic record linkage algorithms. We provided a formal security analysis of the protocol in the presence of semi-honest adversaries. The protocol was implemented and deployed across three microbiology laboratories located in Norway, and we ran experiments on the datasets in which the number of records for each laboratory varied. Experiments were also performed on simulated microbiology datasets and data custodians connected through a local area network. Results The security analysis demonstrated that the protocol protects the privacy of individuals and data custodians under a semi-honest adversarial model. More precisely, the protocol remains secure with the collusion of up to N − 2 corrupt data custodians. The total runtime for the protocol scales linearly with the addition of data custodians and records. One million simulated records distributed across 20 data custodians were deduplicated within 45 s. The experimental results showed that the protocol is more efficient and scalable than previous protocols for the same problem. Conclusions The proposed deduplication protocol is efficient and scalable for practical uses while protecting the privacy of patients and data custodians

Enhancing quantum efficiency of thin-film silicon solar cells by Pareto optimality

We present a composite design methodology for the simulation and optimization of the solar cell performance. Our method is based on the synergy of different computational techniques and it is especially designed for the thin-film cell technology. In particular, we aim to efficiently simulate light trapping and plasmonic effects to enhance the light harvesting of the cell. The methodology is based on the sequential application of a hierarchy of approaches: (a) full Maxwell simulations are applied to derive the photon’s scattering probability in systems presenting textured interfaces; (b) calibrated Photonic Monte Carlo is used in junction with the scattering matrices method to evaluate coherent and scattered photon absorption in the full cell architectures; (c) the results of these advanced optical simulations are used as the pair generation terms in model implemented in an effective Technology Computer Aided Design tool for the derivation of the cell performance; (d) the models are investigated by qualitative and quantitative sensitivity analysis algorithms, to evaluate the importance of the design parameters considered on the models output and to get a first order descriptions of the objective space; (e) sensitivity analysis results are used to guide and simplify the optimization of the model achieved through both Single Objective Optimization (in order to fully maximize devices efficiency) and Multi Objective Optimization (in order to balance efficiency and cost); (f) Local, Global and “Glocal” robustness of optimal solutions found by the optimization algorithms are statistically evaluated; (g) data-based Identifiability Analysis is used to study the relationship between parameters. The results obtained show a noteworthy improvement with respect to the quantum efficiency of the reference cell demonstrating that the methodology presented is suitable for effective optimization of solar cell devices

Epilepsy Surgery for Pharmacoresistant Temporal Lobe Epilepsy: A Decision Analysis

Context Patients with pharmacoresistant epilepsy have increased mortality compared with the general population, but patients with pharmacoresistant temporal lobe epilepsy who meet criteria for surgery and who become seizure-free after anterior temporal lobe resection have reduced excess mortality vs those with persistent seizures. Objective To quantify the potential survival benefit of anterior temporal lobe resection for patients with pharmacoresistant temporal lobe epilepsy vs continued medical management. Design Monte Carlo simulation model that incorporates possible surgical complications and seizure status, with 10 000 runs. The model was populated with health-related quality-of-life data obtained directly from patients and data from the medical literature. Insufficient data were available to assess gamma-knife radiosurgery or vagal nerve stimulation. Main Outcome Measures Life expectancy and quality-adjusted life expectancy. Results Compared with medical management, anterior temporal lobe resection for a 35-year-old patient with an epileptogenic zone identified in the anterior temporal lobe would increase survival by 5.0 years (95% CI, 2.1-9.2) with surgery preferred in 100% of the simulations. Anterior temporal lobe resection would increase quality-adjusted life expectancy by 7.5 quality-adjusted life-years (95%, CI, −0.8 to 17.4) with surgery preferred in 96.5% of the simulations, primarily due to increased years spent without disabling seizures, thereby reducing seizure-related excess mortality and improving quality of life. The results were robust to sensitivity analyses. Conclusion The decision analysis model suggests that on average anterior temporal lobe resection should provide substantial gains in life expectancy and quality-adjusted life expectancy for surgically eligible patients with pharmacoresistant temporal lobe epilepsy compared with medical management

Radiative thermal runaway due to negative differential thermal emission across a solid-solid phase transition

Thermal runaway occurs when a rise in system temperature results in heat generation rates exceeding dissipation rates. Here we demonstrate that thermal runaway occurs in thermal radiative systems, given a sufficient level of negative differential thermal emission. By exploiting the insulator-to-metal phase transition of vanadium dioxide, we show that a small increase in heat generation (e.g., 10 nW/mm2) can result in a large change in surface temperature (e.g., ~35 K), as the thermal emitter switches from high emissivity to low emissivity. While thermal runaway is typically associated with catastrophic failure mechanisms, detailed understanding and control of this phenomenon may give rise to new opportunities in infrared sensing, camouflage, and rectification