On the Cyclicality and Stability of Real Earnings

We show in this paper that important insights into the cyclical behaviour of wages can be gained by dividing (real) average hourly earnings into their straight-time hourly wage and overtime components. Our motivation is based on the idea of employment-contingent contracts. BLS published and unpublished statistics are used to decompose average earnings into (i) the straight-time wage rate, (ii) the ?mark-up? needed to achieve an overtime worker?s earnings rate, and (iii) the proportion of workers working overtime. Using monthly manufacturing data from 1962?1997, cyclicality measures of these components are based on contemporaneous bivariate correlations using four alternative detrending methods while stability is examined using recursive estimation and testing methods. While the wage rate is generally acyclical and unstable, the other two components are highly pro-cyclical and relatively stable

Real Wages and the Cycle: The View from the Frequency Domain

In the time domain, the observed cyclical behavior of the real wage hides a range of economic influences that give rise to cycles of differing lengths and amplitudes. This may serve to produce a distorted picture of wage cyclicality. Here, we employ frequency domain methods that allow us decompose wages into cyclical components and to assess the relative contribution of each component. These are discussed in relation to wages alone (the univariate case) and to wages in relation to production or employment-based measures of the cycle (multivariate). In the multivariate dimension, we derive methods for determining whether (i) wage and business cycles cohere (ii) lead-lag or contemporaneous relationships exist and (iii) the degree of coherency between wage and business cycles is time dependent. We establish that real wages are strongly procyclical and that the business cycle is the dominant associated influence

Manufacturing Earnings and Cycles: New Evidence

In the time domain, the observed cyclical behavior of the real wage hides a range of economic in uences that give rise to cycles of di ering lengths and strengths. This may serve to produce a distorted picture of wage cyclicality. Here, we employ and develop frequency domain meth- ods that allow us to assess the relative contribution of cyclical frequency bands on real wage earnings. Earnings are decomposed into standard and overtime components. We also distinguish between consumption and production wages. Frequency domain analysis is carried out in re- lation to wages alone (the univariate case) and to wages in relation to a selected range of cyclical economic indicators (multivariate). We es- tablish that all key components of real wages are strongly pro-cyclical but display signicant co-variations with more than one frequency band. Moreover, components are by no means uniformly associated with each of the chosen proxies for the cycle.

Logic gates at the surface code threshold: Superconducting qubits poised for fault-tolerant quantum computing

A quantum computer can solve hard problems - such as prime factoring, database searching, and quantum simulation - at the cost of needing to protect fragile quantum states from error. Quantum error correction provides this protection, by distributing a logical state among many physical qubits via quantum entanglement. Superconductivity is an appealing platform, as it allows for constructing large quantum circuits, and is compatible with microfabrication. For superconducting qubits the surface code is a natural choice for error correction, as it uses only nearest-neighbour coupling and rapidly-cycled entangling gates. The gate fidelity requirements are modest: The per-step fidelity threshold is only about 99%. Here, we demonstrate a universal set of logic gates in a superconducting multi-qubit processor, achieving an average single-qubit gate fidelity of 99.92% and a two-qubit gate fidelity up to 99.4%. This places Josephson quantum computing at the fault-tolerant threshold for surface code error correction. Our quantum processor is a first step towards the surface code, using five qubits arranged in a linear array with nearest-neighbour coupling. As a further demonstration, we construct a five-qubit Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger (GHZ) state using the complete circuit and full set of gates. The results demonstrate that Josephson quantum computing is a high-fidelity technology, with a clear path to scaling up to large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum circuits.Comment: 15 pages, 13 figures, including supplementary materia

Minimum Decision Cost for Quantum Ensembles

For a given ensemble of $N$ independent and identically prepared particles, we calculate the binary decision costs of different strategies for measurement of polarised spin 1/2 particles. The result proves that, for any given values of the prior probabilities and any number of constituent particles, the cost for a combined measurement is always less than or equal to that for any combination of separate measurements upon sub-ensembles. The Bayes cost, which is that associated with the optimal strategy (i.e., a combined measurement) is obtained in a simple closed form.Comment: 11 pages, uses RevTe

The Fatigue Associated with Depression Questionnaire (FAsD): responsiveness and responder definition

PURPOSE: The Fatigue Associated with Depression Questionnaire (FAsD) was developed to assess fatigue and its impact among patients with depression. The purpose of this study was to examine the questionnaire’s responsiveness to change and identify a responder definition for interpretation of treatment-related changes. METHODS: Data were collected at baseline and at 6 weeks from patients with depression starting treatment with a new antidepressant. RESULTS: Of the 96 participants, 55.2% were women, with a mean age of 43.4 years. The total score and both subscales demonstrated statistically significant change with moderate to large effect sizes (absolute values ≥0.76). FAsD change scores were significantly correlated with change on the Brief Fatigue Inventory (r ≥ 0.73; p < 0.001). FAsD mean change scores discriminated among patient subgroups differing by degree of improvement in patient- and clinician-reported fatigue and depression. Responder definition for the two subscales and total score (0.67, 0.57, 0.62) was estimated primarily based on mean change among patients who reported a small but important improvement in fatigue. DISCUSSION: The FAsD was responsive to change, and the responder definition may be used when interpreting treatment-related change. Results add to previous findings suggesting the FAsD is a useful measure of fatigue among patients with depression

Dutch translation and cross-cultural validation of the Adult Social Care Outcomes Toolkit (ASCOT)

Background: The Adult Social Care Outcomes Toolkit was developed to measure outcomes of social care in England. In this study, we translated the four level self-completion version (SCT-4) of the ASCOT for use in the Netherlands and performed a cross-cultural validation. Methods: The ASCOT SCT-4 was translated into Dutch following international guidelines, including two forward and back translations. The resulting version was pilot tested among frail older adults using think-aloud interviews. Furthermore, using a subsample of the Dutch ACT-study, we investigated test-retest reliability and construct validity and compared response distributions with data from a comparable English study. Results: The pilot tests showed that translated items were in general understood as intended, that most items were reliable, and that the response distributions of the Dutch translation and associations with other measures were comparable to the original English version. Based on the results of the pilot tests, some small modifications and a revision of the Dignity items were proposed for the final translation, which were approved by the ASCOT development team. The complete original English version and the final Dutch translation can be obtained after registration on the ASCOT website (http://www.pssru.ac.uk/ascot). Conclusions: This study provides preliminary evidence that the Dutch translation of the ASCOT is valid, reliable and comparable to the original English version. We recommend further research to confirm the validity of the modified Dutch ASCOT translation

Physical theory of the twentieth century and contemporary philosophy

It has been shown that the criticism of Pauli as well as of Susskind and Glogover may be avoided if the standard quantum-mechanical mathematical model has been suitably extended. There is not more any reason for Einstein's citicism, either, if in addition to some new results concerning Bell's inequalities and Belifante's argument are taken into account. The ensemble interpretation of quantum mechanics (or the hidden-variable theory) should be preferred, which is also supported by the already published results of experiments with three polarizers. Greater space in the text has been devoted also to the discussion of epistemological problems and some philosophical consequences.Comment: 12 page

The effect of age and clinical circumstances on the outcome of red blood cell transfusion in critically ill patients

Introduction: Whether red blood cell (RBC) transfusion is beneficial remains controversial. In both retrospective and prospective evaluations, transfusion has been associated with adverse, neutral, or protective effects. These varying results likely stem from a complex interplay between transfusion, patient characteristics, and clinical context. The objective was to test whether age, comorbidities, and clinical context modulate the effect of transfusion on survival. Methods: By using the multiparameter intelligent monitoring in intensive care II database (v. 2.6), a retrospective analysis of 9,809 critically ill patients, we evaluated the effect of RBC transfusion on 30-day and 1-year mortality. Propensity score modeling and logistic regression adjusted for known confounding and assessed the independent effect of transfusion on 30-day and 1-year mortality. Sensitivity analysis was performed by using 3,164 transfused and non-transfused pairs, matched according the previously validated propensity model for RBC transfusion. Results: RBC transfusion did not affect 30-day or 1-year mortality in the overall cohort. Patients younger than 55 years had increased odds of mortality (OR, 1.71; P < 0.01) with transfusion. Patients older than 75 years had lower odds of 30-day and 1-year mortality (OR, 0.70; P < 0.01) with transfusion. Transfusion was associated with worse outcome among patients undergoing cardiac surgery (OR, 2.1; P < 0.01). The propensity-matched population corroborated findings identified by regression adjustment. Conclusion: A complex relation exists between RBC transfusion and clinical outcome. Our results show that transfusion is associated with improved outcomes in some cohorts and worse outcome in others, depending on comorbidities and patient characteristics. As such, future investigations and clinical decisions evaluating the value of transfusion should account for variations in baseline characteristics and clinical context. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13054-014-0487-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Quantifying the Relationship between Capability and Health in Older People: Can't Map, Won't Map

BACKGROUND: Intuitively, health and capability are distinct but linked concepts. This study aimed to quantify the link between a measure of health status (EQ-5D-3L) and capability (ICECAP-O) using regression-based methods. METHODS: EQ-5D-3L and ICECAP-O data were collected from a sample of older people ( n = 584), aged over 65 years, requiring a hospital visit and/or care home resident, and recruited to one of 3 studies forming the Medical Crisis in Older People (MCOP) program in England. The link of EQ-5D-3L with 1) ICECAP-O tariff scores were estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS) or censored least absolute deviation (CLAD) regression models; and 2) ICECAP-O domain scores was estimated using multinomial logistic (MNL) regression. Mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), absolute difference (AD) between mean observed and estimated values, and the R(2) statistic were used to judge model performance. RESULTS: In this sample of older people ( n = 584), higher scores on the EQ-5D-3L were shown to be linked with higher ICECAP-O scores when using linear regression. An OLS-regression model was identified to be the best performing model with the lowest error statistics (AD = 0.0000; MAE = 0.1208; MSE = 0.1626) and highest goodness of fit ( R(2) = 0.3532); model performance was poor when predicting the lower ICECAP-O tariff scores. The three domains of the EQ-5D-3L showing a statistically significant quantifiable link with the ICECAP-O tariff score were self-care, usual activities, and anxiety/depression. CONCLUSION: A quantifiable, but weak, link between health (EQ-5D-3L) and capability (ICECAP-O) was identified. The findings from this study add further support that the ICECAP-O is providing complimentary information to the EQ-5D-3L. Mapping between the 2 measures is not advisable and the measures should not be used as direct substitutes to capture the impact of interventions in economic evaluations