Variation in gaze following across the life span: A process-level perspective

Following eye gaze is fundamental for many social-cognitive abilities, for example, when judging what another agent can or cannot know. While the emergence of gaze following has been thoroughly studied on a group level, we know little about (a) the developmental trajectory beyond infancy and (b) the sources of individual differences. In Study 1, we examined gaze following across the lifespan (N = 478 3- to 19-year-olds from Leipzig, Germany; and N = 240 20- to 80-year-old international, remotely tested adults). We found a steep performance improvement during preschool years, in which children became more precise in locating the attentional focus of an agent. Precision levels then stayed comparably stable throughout adulthood with a minor decline toward old age. In Study 2, we formalized the process of gaze following in a computational cognitive model that allowed us to conceptualize individual differences in a psychologically meaningful way (N = 60 3- to 5-year-olds, 50 adults). According to our model, participants estimate pupil angles with varying levels of precision based on observing the pupil location within the agent's eyes. In Study 3, we empirically tested how gaze following relates to vector following in non-social settings and perspective-taking abilities (N = 102 4- to 5-year-olds). We found that gaze following is associated with both of these abilities but less so with other Theory of Mind tasks. This work illustrates how the combination of reliable measurement instruments and formal theoretical models allows us to explore the in(ter)dependence of core social-cognitive processes in greater detail

Sensible heat has significantly affected the global hydrological cycle over the historical period

Globally, latent heating associated with a change in precipitation is balanced by changes to atmospheric radiative cooling and sensible heat fluxes. Both components can be altered by climate forcing mechanisms and through climate feedbacks, but the impacts of climate forcing and feedbacks on sensible heat fluxes have received much less attention. Here we show, using a range of climate modelling results, that changes in sensible heat are the dominant contributor to the present global-mean precipitation change since preindustrial time, because the radiative impact of forcings and feedbacks approximately compensate. The model results show a dissimilar influence on sensible heat and precipitation from various drivers of climate change. Due to its strong atmospheric absorption, black carbon is found to influence the sensible heat very differently compared to other aerosols and greenhouse gases. Our results indicate that this is likely caused by differences in the impact on the lower tropospheric stability

Improved representation of the diurnal variation of warm season precipitation by an atmospheric general circulation model at a 10 km horizontal resolution

This study investigates the diurnal variation of the warm season precipitation simulated by the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 atmospheric general circulation model for 2??years (2005???2006) at a horizontal resolution of 10??km. The simulation was validated with the satellite-derived Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 precipitation data and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications atmospheric reanalysis for atmospheric winds and moisture. The simulation is compared with the coarse-resolution run in 50??km to examine the impacts driven by resolution change. Overall, the 10??km model tends to reproduce the important features of the observed diurnal variation, such as the amplitude and phase at which precipitation peaks in the evening on land and in the morning over the ocean, despite an excessive amplitude bias over land. The model also reproduces the realistic propagation patterns of precipitation in the vicinity of ocean coasts and major mountains. The regional characteristics of the diurnal precipitation over two regions, the Bay of Bengal and the Great Plains in North America, are examined in detail, where the observed diurnal cycle exhibits a systematic transition in the peak phase due to the development and propagation of regional-scale convective systems. The model is able to reproduce this pattern as well as the diurnal variation of low-level wind and moisture convergence; however, it is less effective at representing the nocturnal peak of precipitation over the Great Plains. The model results suggest that increasing the horizontal resolution of the model to 10??km substantially improves the representation of the diurnal precipitation cycle. However, intrinsic model deficiencies in topographical precipitation and the accurate representation of mesoscale convective systems remain a challenge

Large-scale dynamics moderate impact-relevant changes to organised convective storms

Larger organised convective storms (mesoscale-convective systems) can lead to major flood events in Europe. Here we assess end-of-century changes to their characteristics in two convection-permitting climate simulations from the UK Met Office and ETH-Zürich that both use the high Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario but different approaches to represent atmospheric changes with global warming and different models. The UK Met Office projections indicate more frequent, smaller, and slower-moving storms, while ETH-Zürich projections show fewer, larger, and faster-moving storms. However, both simulations show increases to peak precipitation intensity, total precipitation volume, and temporal clustering, suggesting increasing risks from mesoscale-convective systems in the future. Importantly, the largest storms that pose increased flood risks are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. These results highlight that understanding large-scale dynamical drivers as well as the thermodynamical response of storms is essential for accurate projections of changes to storm hazards, needed for future climate adaptation

The Needs, Challenges, and Priorities for Advancing Global Flood Research

\ua9 2025 The Author(s). WIREs Water published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.In recent years, numerous flood events have caused loss of life, widespread disruption, and damage across the globe. These devastating impacts highlight the importance of a better understanding of flood generating processes, their impacts, and their variability under climate and landscape changes. Here, we argue that the ability to better model flooding is underpinned by the grand challenge of understanding flood generation mechanisms and potential impacts. To address this challenge, the World Meteorological Organization-Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) Hydrometeorology Panel (GHP) aims to establish a Global Flood Crosscutting project to propagate flood modeling and research knowledge across regions and to synthesize results at the global scale. This paper outlines a framework for understanding the dynamics and impacts of runoff generation processes and a rationale for the role of a Global Flood Crosscutting project to address these challenges. Within this Global Flood Crosscutting project, we will establish a common terminology and methods to enable the global research community to exchange knowledge and experiences, and to design experiments toward developing actionable recommendations for more effective flood management practices and policies for improved resilience. This harmonization of rich perspectives across disciplines will foster the co-production of knowledge primed to advance flood research, particularly in the current period of heightened climate variability and rapid change. It will create a new transdisciplinary paradigm for flood science, wherein different dimensions of mechanistic understanding and processes are rigorously considered alongside socioeconomic impacts, early warning communications, and longer-term adaptation to alleviate flood risks in society

Blocking representation in the ERA-Interim driven EURO-CORDEX RCMs

While Regional Climate Models (RCMs) have been shown to yield improved simulations compared to General Circulation Model (GCM), their representation of large-scale phenomena like atmospheric blocking has been hardly addressed. Here, we evaluate the ability of RCMs to simulate blocking situations present in their reanalysis driving data and analyse the associated impacts on anomalies and biases of European 2-m air temperature (TAS) and precipitation rate (PR). Five RCM runs stem from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble while three RCMs are WRF models with different nudging realizations, all of them driven by ERA-Interim for the period 1981?2010. The detected blocking systems are allocated to three sectors of the Euro-Atlantic region, allowing for a characterization of distinctive blocking-related TAS and PR anomalies. Our results indicate some misrepresentation of atmospheric blocking over the EURO-CORDEX domain, as compared to the driving reanalysis. Most of the RCMs showed fewer blocks than the driving data, while the blocking misdetection was negligible for RCMs strongly conditioned to the driving data. A higher resolution of the RCMs did not improve the representation of atmospheric blocking. However, all RCMs are able to reproduce the basic anomaly structure of TAS and PR connected to blocking. Moreover, the associated anomalies do not change substantially after correcting for the misrepresentation of blocking in RCMs. The overall model bias is mainly determined by pattern biases in the representations of surface parameters during non-blocking situations. Biases in blocking detections tend to have a secondary influence in the overall bias due to compensatory effects of missed blockings and non-blockings. However, they can lead to measurable effects in the presence of a strong blocking underestimation.This work was funded by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) under the project: Understanding Contrasts in high Mountain hydrology in Asia (UNCOMUN: I 1295-N29). This research was supported by the Faculty of Environmental, Regional and Educational Sciences (URBI), University of Graz, as well as the Federal Ministry of Science, Research and Economy (BMWFW) by funding the OeAD Grant Marietta Blau. This work was partially supported (JMG and SH) by the project MULTI-SDM (CGL2015-66583- R, MINECO/FEDER). DB was supported by the PALEOSTRAT (CGL2015-69699-R) project funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO)

Validation of an open source, remote web-based eye-tracking method (WebGazer) for research in early childhood

Measuring eye movements remotely via the participant's webcam promises to be an attractive methodological addition to in-person eye-tracking in the lab. However, there is a lack of systematic research comparing remote web-based eye-tracking with in-lab eye-tracking in young children. We report a multi-lab study that compared these two measures in an anticipatory looking task with toddlers using WebGazer.js and jsPsych. Results of our remotely tested sample of 18-27-month-old toddlers (N = 125) revealed that web-based eye-tracking successfully captured goal-based action predictions, although the proportion of the goal-directed anticipatory looking was lower compared to the in-lab sample (N = 70). As expected, attrition rate was substantially higher in the web-based (42%) than the in-lab sample (10%). Excluding trials based on visual inspection of the match of time-locked gaze coordinates and the participant's webcam video overlayed on the stimuli was an important preprocessing step to reduce noise in the data. We discuss the use of this remote web-based method in comparison with other current methodological innovations. Our study demonstrates that remote web-based eye-tracking can be a useful tool for testing toddlers, facilitating recruitment of larger and more diverse samples; a caveat to consider is the larger drop-out rate

Action anticipation based on an agent's epistemic state in toddlers and adults

Do toddlers and adults engage in spontaneous Theory of Mind (ToM)? Evidence from anticipatory looking (AL) studies suggests that they do. But a growing body of failed replication studies raised questions about the paradigm’s suitability. In this multi-lab collaboration, we test the robustness of spontaneous ToM measures. We examine whether 18- to 27-month-olds’ and adults’ anticipatory looks distinguish between two basic forms of an agent’s epistemic states: knowledge and ignorance. In toddlers [ANTICIPATED n = 520 50% FEMALE] and adults [ANTICIPATED n = 408, 50% FEMALE] from diverse ethnic backgrounds, we found [SUPPORT/NO SUPPORT] for epistemic state-based action anticipation. Future research can probe whether this conclusion extends to more complex kinds of epistemic states, such as true and false beliefs