“Robin Hook”: The developmental effects of Somali piracy

Copyright @ 2011 Brunel UniversityNaval counter-piracy measures off Somalia have failed to change the incentives for pirates, raising calls for land-based approaches that may involve replacing piracy as a source of income. This paper evaluates the effects of piracy on the Somali economy to establish which (domestic) groups benefit from ransom monies. Given the paucity of economic data on Somalia, we evaluate province-level market data, nightlight emissions and high resolution satellite imagery. We show that significant amounts of ransom monies are spent within Somalia. The impacts appear to be spread widely, benefiting the working poor and pastoralists and offsetting the food price shock of 2008 in the pirate provinces. Pirates appear to invest their money principally in the main cities of Garowe and Bosasso rather than in the backward coastal communities

The pirates of Somalia: Coastguards of anarchy

This paper analyses the underlying factors driving piracy off the coast of Somalia and examines the effectiveness of the international naval anti-piracy mission with respect to its declared aims. We show that while the navies perform well with respect to their short-term aims, they failed to contain the escalation of the piracy problem through 2009: pirates have been diverted from the Gulf of Aden into the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea. Evidence from domestic conditions in Somalia suggests that economic development and greater stability might in fact aid pirates

Monetary policy in the Franc zone: Country-level credit policy

This extract is taken from the author's original manuscript and has not been reviewed or edited. The definitive version of this extract may be found in the work Macroeconomic Policy in the Franc Zone edited by D Fielding which can be purchased from www.palgrave.co

Is government ownership of banks really harmful to growth?

We show that previous results suggesting that government ownership of banks has a negative effect on economic growth are not robust to adding more 'fundamental' determinants of economic growth, such as institutions. We also present regression results from a more recent period (1995-2007) which suggest that, if anything, government ownership of banks has been associated with higher long run growth rates, even after controlling for institutions and other variables suggested by the growth literature. Drawing on the current global financial crisis, we provide a conceptual framework which explains why under certain circumstances government owned banks could have a greater effect on economic growth than privately-owned banks

Does Television Terrify Tourists? Effects of US Television News on Demand for Tourism in Israel

In this paper we analyze a time series measuring the monthly flow of US tourists to Israel over the period 1997-2006. We pay particular attention to the response of tourists to variations in the intensity the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, drawing a distinction between actual conflict intensity and the intensity with which the conflict is reported in the US television media. We find that different dimensions of the conflict affect tourists in different ways. For some (but not all) dimensions of the conflict, reported intensity matters more than actual intensity

“…beads which have given rise to so much dogmatism, controversy and rash speculation”: faience in Early Bronze Age Britain and Ireland

This volume represents the publication of a highly successful conference held in 2003 to celebrate the contribution to Neolithic and Early Bronze Age studies of one of archaeology's finest synthesisers, Professor Stuart Piggott. The title is a reference to his famous work, Ancient Europe from the beginnings of agriculture to Classical Antiquity, itself a publication of his Society of Antiquaries of Scotland's Rhind Lectures of 1962. The scope of the volume spans the three crucial millennia, from the beginning of the fourth to the mid second, that saw major impacts on the area we now call Scotland. There was transformation of the landscape through the introduction and development of farming, the creation of many striking monuments and the spread of important ideas and technologies, of which metalworking, particularly in Aberdeenshire, was one of the most significant. The contributions cover major advances in research in the period which demonstrate the interplay of the key factors of climate, culture, and resources, where the theme of exchange of information, objects and materials played a vital role. Individual chapters range from chambered tombs to climate change, from dietary choices to faience beads, from timber enclosures to bronze hoards. Together these present a valuable and up-to-the-minute overview of Scotland in ancient Europe and a fine tribute to a past-master of the subject

Radiocarbon dating and the Naqada relative chronology

The Naqada relative chronology provides the main cultural framework for the Predynastic period of ancient Egypt. It was devised in the late nineteenth century by Flinders Petrie to improve understanding of the prehistoric origins of the Egyptian state. Petrie's approach became widely known and formed the basis for the development of seriation. In this study, we test the reliability of the Naqada relative chronology as a dating tool against all the relevant radiocarbon information. The results show that the main blocks of the relative sequence do form a true chronology, but also indicate that the system is much less reliable at the level of individual phases. We discuss the nature of the discrepancies and the broader influence of the relative chronology on current understanding of Early Egypt

Between a rock and a hard place of geopolitically sensitive threats – critical incidents and decision inertia

While the SAFE-T model of decision making emphasizes naturalistic decision making, its potential for cross-comparative analysis of incidents with global implications remains underutilized, which the current paper aims to address. To this end, it draws upon open-source reports from unclassified American, British and Russian intelligence reports to explore the management of three types of 10 high-profile geopolitically sensitive threats from across the globe (verifying potential terrorist identity, hostage rescue and national/international security). Defining features of such incidents include decision makers’ ability to prospectively model competing scenarios in which they must select between options and where every outcome looks aversive and high risk (‘damned if you do or damned if you don’t decisions’). A frequent consequence of such calculations is ‘decision inertia’ (a failure to execute an important, irrevocable decision resulting in non-optimal consequences), or ‘implementation failure’ (a failure to make a choice). Combining the benefit of the theoretical framework and hindsight knowledge of the analyzed incidents, the paper facilitates theoretical understanding of decision inertia and failures to act. Encouraging the consideration of multiple scenario endings contingent on a wide spectrum of factors and unique cultural-historical context, it also helps identify past decision errors in order to inform assessment and management of similar geopolitical threats in the future

Recruitment of older adults to three preventative lifestyle improvement studies

YesBackground: Recruiting isolated older adults to clinical trials is complex, time-consuming and difficult. Previous studies have suggested querying existing databases to identify appropriate potential participants. We aim to compare recruitment techniques (general practitioner (GP) mail-outs, community engagement and clinician referrals) used in three randomised controlled trial (RCT) studies assessing the feasibility or effectiveness of two preventative interventions in isolated older adults (the Lifestyle Matters and Putting Life In Years interventions). Methods: During the three studies (the Lifestyle Matters feasibility study, the Lifestyle Matters RCT, the Putting Life In Years RCT) data were collected about how participants were recruited. The number of letters sent by GP surgeries for each study was recorded. In the Lifestyle Matters RCT, we qualitatively interviewed participants and intervention facilitators at 6 months post randomisation to seek their thoughts on the recruitment process. Results: Referrals were planned to be the main source of recruitment in the Lifestyle Matters feasibility study, but due to a lack of engagement from district nurses, community engagement was the main source of recruitment. District nurse referrals and community engagement were also utilised in the Lifestyle Matters and Putting Life In Years RCTs; both mechanisms yielded few participants. GP mail-outs were the main source of recruitment in both the RCTs, but of those contacted, recruiting yield was low (< 3%). Facilitators of the Lifestyle Matters intervention questioned whether the most appropriate individuals had been recruited. Participants recommended that direct contact with health professionals would be the most beneficial way to recruit. Conclusions: Recruitment to the Lifestyle Matters RCT did not mirror recruitment to the feasibility study of the same intervention. Direct district nurse referrals were not effective at recruiting participants. The majority of participants were recruited via GP mail-outs, which may have led to isolated individuals not being recruited to the trials. Further research is required into alternative recruitment techniques, including respondent-driven sampling plus mechanisms which will promote health care professionals to recruit vulnerable populations to research.The Lifestyle Matters RCT was funded by the Medical Research Council (grant number G1001406); Sheffield Health and Social Research Consortium; National Institute for Health Research Public Health Research programme (project number 09/ 3004/01