Efektivitas Penggunaan Arima dan Var dalam Memproyeksi Permintaan Kredit di Indonesia

This research was carried out by using ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrate Moving Avarage ) with VAR method (Vector Autoregressive) to see which one more effective in forecasting. From the results of the study may indicate that the ARIMA method is more effective than VARmethod in predicting demand for credit in Indonesia . ARIMA ( 1,1,0 ) is the best model for forecasting the level of the average forecasting error is quite low with a value of 8.70 (RMSE) compared with VAR models . Additionally VAR models using multiple stages to performforecasting models such as VAR , Impulse Response , Variance Decomposition to be done to project the demand for credit . From the research that has been done quantitatively that the ARIMA method is more effective and efficient in making predictions , the stage or the method used is quite simple with accurate results with relatively low error rates with 8.70 (RMSE) . While the VAR method for forecasting the need to use multiple stages in predicting demand for credit , but no measure of the level of error in the method of the VAR model is best for forecasting the ARIMA model

Hubungan Pelaksanaan Klinik Sanitasi dengan Kejadian Diare di Kabupaten Takalar

Environmental health efforts and environmental ased disease eradication programs are becoming more relevant with the implementation of healthy paradigm for future health programs. The implementation of healthy paradigm is parallel to sanitation clinic in which the three of health service elements, promotive, preventive, and curative, can be implemented in an integrative manner. This study was aimed to find out the difference of diarrhea incidences bet-ween public health centers with sanitation clinic program and those without sanitation clinic program. This study was conducted in two public health centers of Takalar Regency, namely Pattalassang health center with sanitation clinic program and Galesong Utara health center without sanitation clinic program. This study was an observational study with cross sectional design. Data were collected by interview and observation on 369 heads of household (KK), 199 KK in health center with program and 170 KK in health center without program. Data were analyzed using statistical analysis by cross tabulation continued with Chi-Square test. Study results indicated that there was a difference in diarrhea incidence rate, where the higher incidence rate was observed in health centers without sanitation clinic program compared to those with sanitation clinic program. This was confirmed by findings that from 369 respondents studied, 145 (39.3%) with diarrhea, 41 (19.3%) located in area of health center with sanitation clinic and 104 (66.2%) located in area of health center without the program. Chi-Square statistical test found the p value = 0.000 (p < 0.05), indicating a significant result. Accordingly, there was a significant difference in basic sanitation, where the higher infrastructure proprietary percentage was observed in health center with program compared to those without sanitation clinic program. Keywords : Diarrhea, Sanitation Clinic and Fasilit

Perlindungan Hukum Bagi Anak Korban Eksploitasi sebagai Artis

Keberadaan artis cilik, sering dipandang sebagai pengembangan minat dan bakat, populer, finansial yang lebih, hidup dalam kemapanan. Sebenarnya semua itu lebih pada bentuk eksploitasi ekonomi yang dilakukan oleh orang tuanya, bilamana aktivitas artis cilik tersebut mengabaikan hak-hak asasinya sebagai anak. Kerja melebihi batas waktu yang ditentukan, jadwal on air dan off air yang padat, sehingga anak tidak sempat belajar, bolos sekolah, tidak punya waktu bermain dengan teman sebaya, merupakan pelanggaran terhadap hak-hak anak yang dilindungi oleh undang-undang. Beragam peraturan Perundang-undangan di Indonesia yang tujuannya untuk melindungi anak ternyata belum dapat memberikan perlindungan yang memadai terhadap anak yang dieksploitasi secara ekonomi, dalam hal ini sebagai artis cilik. Beberapa kelemahan, ketidak harmonisan peraturan Perundang-undangan yang ada dan kelemahan para penegak hukum (caturwangsa), berakibat pada lolosnya para pelaku eksploitasi anak sebagai artis dari sanksi hukum. Selain faktor ekonomi, perhatian dan kepedulian masyarakat terhadap anak yang dieksploitiasi secara ekonomi serta konstruksi sosial bahwa orang tua berhak atas segala sesuatu terhadap anak, memberi kontribusi pelanggaran hak-hak anak berupa eksploitasi itu terus terjadi

Bionomik Nyamuk Anopheles Spp Di Desa Sumare Dan Desa Tapandullu Kecamatan Simboro Kabupaten Mamuju Provinsi Sulawesi Barat Tahun 2011

. Tapandullu and Sumare Villages are area of malaria high endemic in Mamuju dis tric ts, West Sulawesi province, located in coastal areas. Anopheles mosquitoes in the two regions are largely unknown, neither species, bionomic density. To find out the fauna and bionomic and dominant Anopheles mosquito, has been conducted a spot survey entomology. Surveys conducted for three consecutive days with the capture of mosquitoes at night and did a long time outside the home, including around the cattle pen. Catching method is to bait people and catching mosquitoes resto Mosquitoes captured, identified the species, calculated density and ovarian surgery performed to calculate the parity rate. From the survey, concluded that chance as a mosquito vector of malaria in both regions are species of Anopheles subpictus

Pengembangan Software Basis Data Bimbingan Konseling

The aims of research are : (1) to describe potency and condition BK software which has been used in saving data/ BK information, (2) to produce software database, (3) to evaluate degree of effectiveness of software database USAge. This research is developing research. Subjects of research are SMPN 19 Bandarlampung, SMPN 20 Bandarlampung, SMAN 13 Bandarlampung and SMAN 15 Bandarlampung. Result of reseacrh shown that (1) software database has potency in saving BK information service at SMP and SMA Bandarlampung, (2) to produce database product which can save BK information and this product which has been developed based on BK teacher’s needs in school, (3) had been used efective product as information saving, it was shown that score average after product USAge, that is 3,84 by very effective criteria.Tujuan penelitian ini adalah (1) mendeskripsikan potensi dan kondisi software BK yang telah digunakan dalam penyimpanan data/informasi BK, (2) menghasilkan software basis data, (3) menguji tingkat efektivitas penggunaan software basis data. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian pengembangan.Tempat penelitian di SMPN 19 Bandarlampung, SMPN 20 Bandarlampung, SMAN 13 Bandarlampung dan SMAN 15 Bandarlampung. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa (1) software basis data berpotensi sebagai penyimpanan informasi pelayanan BK di SMP dan SMA Kota Bandarlampung, (2) menghasilkan produk basis data yang dapat menyimpan informasi BK dan produk yang dikembangkan sudah disesuaikan dengan kebutuhan guru BK di sekolah, (3) produk efektif digunakan sebagai penyimpanan informasi hal ini ditunjukkan dengan rata-rata skor setelah penggunaan produk yaitu 3,84 dengan kriteria sangat efektif