Optimal Operation of the Multireservoir System in the Seine River Basin Using Deterministic and Ensemble Forecasts

International audienceThis article investigates the improvement of the operation of a four-reservoir system in the Seine River basin, France, by use of deterministic and ensemble weather forecasts and real-time control. In the current management, each reservoir is operated independently from the others and following prescribed rule-curves, designed to reduce floods and sustain low flows under the historical hydrological conditions. However, this management system is inefficient when inflows are significantly different from their seasonal average and may become even more inadequate to cope with the predicted increase in extreme events induced by climate change. In this work, a centralized real-time control system is developed to improve reservoirs operation by exploiting numerical weather forecasts that are becoming increasingly available. The proposed management system implements a well-established optimization technique, model predictive control (MPC), and its recently modified version that can incorporate uncertainties, tree-based model predictive control (TB-MPC), to account for deterministic and ensemble forecasts respectively. The management system is assessed by simulation over historical events and compared to the no-forecasts strategy based on rule-curves. Simulation results show that the proposed real-time control system largely outperforms the no-forecasts management strategy, and that explicitly considering forecast uncertainty through ensembles can compensate for the loss in performance due to forecast inaccuracy

A new measurement of the structure functions PLL−PTT/epsilonP_{LL}-P_{TT}/epsilon and PLTP_{LT} in virtual Compton scattering at Q2=Q^2= 0.33 (GeV/c)2^2

The cross section of the $ep \to e' p' \gamma$ reaction has been measured at $Q^2 = 0.33$ (GeV/c)$^2$. The experiment was performed using the electron beam of the MAMI accelerator and the standard detector setup of the A1 Collaboration. The cross section is analyzed using the low-energy theorem for virtual Compton scattering, yielding a new determination of the two structure functions P_LL}-P_{TT}/epsilon and $P_{LT}$ which are linear combinations of the generalized polarizabilities of the proton. We find somewhat larger values than in the previous investigation at the same $Q^2$. This difference, however, is purely due to our more refined analysis of the data. The results tend to confirm the non-trivial $Q^2$-evolution of the generalized polarizabilities and call for more measurements in the low-$Q^2$ region ($\le$ 1 (GeV/c)$^2$).Comment: 9 pages, 10 figures. EPJA version. slight revisions in the text and figure

Search for a diffuse flux of astrophysical muon neutrinos with the IceCube 59-string configuration

A search for high-energy neutrinos was performed using data collected by the IceCube Neutrino Observatory from May 2009 to May 2010, when the array was running in its 59-string configuration. The data sample was optimized to contain muon neutrino induced events with a background contamination of atmospheric muons of less than 1%. These data, which are dominated by atmospheric neutrinos, are analyzed with a global likelihood fit to search for possible contributions of prompt atmospheric and astrophysical neutrinos, neither of which have yet been identified. Such signals are expected to follow a harder energy spectrum than conventional atmospheric neutrinos. In addition, the zenith angle distribution differs for astrophysical and atmospheric signals. A global fit of the reconstructed energies and directions of observed events is performed, including possible neutrino flux contributions for an astrophysical signal and atmospheric backgrounds as well as systematic uncertainties of the experiment and theoretical predictions. The best fit yields an astrophysical signal flux for nu(mu) + (nu) over bar (mu) of E-2. Phi(E) = 0.25 x 10(-8) GeV cm(-2) s(-1) sr(-1), and a zero prompt component. Although the sensitivity of this analysis for astrophysical neutrinos surpasses the Waxman and Bahcall upper bound, the experimental limit at 90% confidence level is a factor of 1.5 above at a flux of E-2 . Phi(E) = 1.44 x 10(-8) GeV cm(-2) s(-1) sr(-1)

Limits on the high-energy gamma and neutrino fluxes from the SGR 1806-20 giant flare of December 27th, 2004 with the AMANDA-II detector

On December 27th 2004, a giant gamma flare from the Soft Gamma-ray Repeater 1806-20 saturated many satellite gamma-ray detectors. This event was by more than two orders of magnitude the brightest cosmic transient ever observed. If the gamma emission extends up to TeV energies with a hard power law energy spectrum, photo-produced muons could be observed in surface and underground arrays. Moreover, high-energy neutrinos could have been produced during the SGR giant flare if there were substantial baryonic outflow from the magnetar. These high-energy neutrinos would have also produced muons in an underground array. AMANDA-II was used to search for downgoing muons indicative of high-energy gammas and/or neutrinos. The data revealed no significant signal. The upper limit on the gamma flux at 90% CL is dN/dE < 0.05 (0.5) TeV^-1 m^-2 s^-1 for gamma=-1.47 (-2). Similarly, we set limits on the normalization constant of the high-energy neutrino emission of 0.4 (6.1) TeV^-1 m^-2 s^-1 for gamma=-1.47 (-2).Comment: 14 pages, 3 figure

Detection of Atmospheric Muon Neutrinos with the IceCube 9-String Detector

The IceCube neutrino detector is a cubic kilometer TeV to PeV neutrino detector under construction at the geographic South Pole. The dominant population of neutrinos detected in IceCube is due to meson decay in cosmic-ray air showers. These atmospheric neutrinos are relatively well-understood and serve as a calibration and verification tool for the new detector. In 2006, the detector was approximately 10% completed, and we report on data acquired from the detector in this configuration. We observe an atmospheric neutrino signal consistent with expectations, demonstrating that the IceCube detector is capable of identifying neutrino events. In the first 137.4 days of livetime, 234 neutrino candidates were selected with an expectation of 211 +/- 76.1(syst.) +/- 14.5(stat.) events from atmospheric neutrinos

First year performance of the IceCube neutrino telescope

The first sensors of the IceCube neutrino observatory were deployed at the South Pole during the austral summer of 2004-2005 and have been producing data since February 2005. One string of 60 sensors buried in the ice and a surface array of eight ice Cherenkov tanks took data until December 2005 when deployment of the next set of strings and tanks began. We have analyzed these data, demonstrating that the performance of the system meets or exceeds design requirements. Times are determined across the whole array to a relative precision of better than 3 ns, allowing reconstruction of muon tracks and light bursts in the ice, of air-showers in the surface array and of events seen in coincidence by surface and deep-ice detectors separated by up to 2.5 km

IceCube sensitivity for low-energy neutrinos from nearby supernovae

This paper describes the response of the IceCube neutrino telescope located at the geographic south pole to outbursts of MeV neutrinos from the core collapse of nearby massive stars. IceCube was completed in December 2010 forming a lattice of 5160 photomultiplier tubes that monitor a volume of ∼1 km3 in the deep Antarctic ice for particle induced photons. The telescope was designed to detect neutrinos with energies greater than 100 GeV. Owing to subfreezing ice temperatures, the photomultiplier dark noise rates are particularly low. Hence IceCube can also detect large numbers of MeV neutrinos by observing a collective rise in all photomultiplier rates on top of the dark noise. With 2 ms timing resolution, IceCube can detect subtle features in the temporal development of the supernova neutrino burst. For a supernova at the galactic center, its sensitivity matches that of a background-free megaton-scale supernova search experiment. The sensitivity decreases to 20 standard deviations at the galactic edge (30 kpc) and 6 standard deviations at the Large Magellanic Cloud (50 kpc). IceCube is sending triggers from potential supernovae to the Supernova Early Warning System. The sensitivity to neutrino properties such as the neutrino hierarchy is discussed, as well as the possibility to detect the neutronization burst, a short outbreak of νe ’s released by electron capture on protons soon after collapse. Tantalizing signatures, such as the formation of a quark star or a black hole as well as the characteristics of shock waves, are investigated to illustrate IceCube’s capability for supernova detection