A methodology for the risk assessment of climate variability and change under uncertainty

Existing methods for the assessment of the potential impacts of climate change in productive activities and sectors are usually limited to point estimates that do not consider the inherent variability and uncertainty of climatic and socioeconomic variables. This is a major drawback given that only a limited and potentially misleading estimation of risk can be expected when ignoring such determinant factors. In this paper, a new methodology is introduced that is capable of integrating the agent's beliefs and expert judgment into the assessment of the potential impacts of climate change in a quantitative manner by means of an objective procedure. The goal is to produce tailor-made information to assist decision-making under uncertainty in a way that is consistent with the current state of knowledge and the available subjective "expert" information. Time-charts of the evolution of different risk measures, that can be relevant for assisting decision-making and planning, can be constructed using this new methodology. This methodology is illustrated with a case study of coffee production in Mexico. Time-dependent probabilistic scenarios for coffee production and income, conditional on the agent's beliefs and expert judgment, are developed for the average producer under uncertain future conditions. It is shown that variability in production and income, generated by introducing climate variability and uncertainty are important factors affecting decision-making and the assessment of economic viability that are frequently ignored. The concept of Value at Risk, commonly applied in financial risk management, is introduced as a means for estimating the maximum expected loss for a previously chosen confidence level. Results are tailor-made for agents that have incomplete information and different beliefs. In this case study, the costs of climate change for coffee production in Veracruz are estimated to have a present value representing from 3 to 14 times the current annual value of coffee production in the state. © 2011 The Author(s)

The potential impact of climate change on Australia's soil organic carbon resources

BACKGROUND: Soil organic carbon (SOC) represents a significant pool of carbon within the biosphere. Climatic shifts in temperature and precipitation have a major influence on the decomposition and amount of SOC stored within an ecosystem and that released into the atmosphere. We have linked net primary production (NPP) algorithms, which include the impact of enhanced atmospheric CO(2 )on plant growth, to the SOCRATES terrestrial carbon model to estimate changes in SOC for the Australia continent between the years 1990 and 2100 in response to climate changes generated by the CSIRO Mark 2 Global Circulation Model (GCM). RESULTS: We estimate organic carbon storage in the topsoil (0–10 cm) of the Australian continent in 1990 to be 8.1 Gt. This equates to 19 and 34 Gt in the top 30 and 100 cm of soil, respectively. By the year 2100, under a low emissions scenario, topsoil organic carbon stores of the continent will have increased by 0.6% (49 Mt C). Under a high emissions scenario, the Australian continent becomes a source of CO(2 )with a net reduction of 6.4% (518 Mt) in topsoil carbon, when compared to no climate change. This is partially offset by the predicted increase in NPP of 20.3% CONCLUSION: Climate change impacts must be studied holistically, requiring integration of climate, plant, ecosystem and soil sciences. The SOCRATES terrestrial carbon cycling model provides realistic estimates of changes in SOC storage in response to climate change over the next century, and confirms the need for greater consideration of soils in assessing the full impact of climate change and the development of quantifiable mitigation strategies

Guidelines for management of ischaemic stroke and transient ischaemic attack 2008

This article represents the update of the European Stroke Initiative Recommendations for Stroke Management. These guidelines cover both ischaemic stroke and transient ischaemic attacks, which are now considered to be a single entity. The article covers referral and emergency management, Stroke Unit service, diagnostics, primary and secondary prevention, general stroke treatment, specific treatment including acute management, management of complications, and rehabilitation

Regional sea level, Southern Oscillation and beach change, New South Wales, Australia

Coastal erosion is a problem of increasing concern that affects 60% of the world\u27s sandy coastline. This erosion has been attributed to increased storminess, tectonic subsidence, eustatic sea-level rise, decreased shoreward sediment movement from the shelf, permanent longshore leakage of sediment from beach compartments, shifts in global pressure belts resulting in changes in the directional component of wave climates, and human interference. No one explanation has worldwide applicability because all factors vary in importance regionally. Evaluation of factors is complicated by a lack of accurate, continuous, long-term erosional data. Historical map evidence spanning 100-1,000 yr has been used in a few isolated areas; however, temporal resolution has not been sufficient to evaluate the effect of climatic variables. Air photographic evidence is restricted to the past 40 yr, and often suffers from insufficient ground control for accurate mapping over time. Ground surveying of beaches was rarely carried out before 1960 and is often discontinuous in time and space. I have resolved the problems of temporal and spatial continuity by studying change for the whole of Stanwell Park beach, New South Wales, Australia for the period 1895-1980 (Fig. 1). I report here that using the average high-tide wave run-up position measured accurate to ±2.5 m from oblique and vertical photographs, changes could be linked to regional sea-level variation and a globally significant climatic variable, the Southern Oscillation (SO)