Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants

BACKGROUND: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. METHODS: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. FINDINGS: We used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4–7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2–11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9–7·9) to 7·9% (6·4–9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. INTERPRETATION: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust

From sea monsters to charismatic megafauna: changes in perception and use of large marine animals

Marine megafauna has always elicited contrasting feelings. In the past, large marine animals were often depicted as fantastic mythological creatures and dangerous monsters, while also arousing human curiosity. Marine megafauna has been a valuable resource to exploit, leading to the collapse of populations and local extinctions. In addition, some species have been perceived as competitors of fishers for marine resources and were often actively culled. Since the 1970s, there has been a change in the perception and use of megafauna. The growth of marine tourism, increasingly oriented towards the observation of wildlife, has driven a shift from extractive to non-extractive use, supporting the conservation of at least some species of marine megafauna. In this paper, we review and compare the changes in the perception and use of three megafaunal groups, cetaceans, elasmobranchs and groupers, with a special focus on European cultures. We highlight the main drivers and the timing of these changes, compare different taxonomic groups and species, and highlight the implications for management and conservation. One of the main drivers of the shift in perception, shared by all the three groups of megafauna, has been a general increase in curiosity towards wildlife, stimulated inter alia by documentaries (from the early 1970s onwards), and also promoted by easy access to scuba diving. At the same time, environmental campaigns have been developed to raise public awareness regarding marine wildlife, especially cetaceans, a process greatly facilitated by the rise of Internet and the World Wide Web. Currently, all the three groups (cetaceans, elasmobranchs and groupers) may represent valuable resources for ecotourism. Strikingly, the economic value of live specimens may exceed their value for human consumption. A further change in perception involving all the three groups is related to a growing understanding and appreciation of their key ecological role. The shift from extractive to non-extractive use has the potential for promoting species conservation and local economic growth. However, the change in use may not benefit the original stakeholders (e.g. fishers or whalers) and there may therefore be a case for providing compensation for disadvantaged stakeholders. Moreover, it is increasingly clear that even non-extractive use may have a negative impact on marine megafauna, therefore regulations are needed.SFRH/BPD/102494/2014, UID/MAR/04292/2019, IS1403info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Global urban environmental change drives adaptation in white clover.

Urbanization transforms environments in ways that alter biological evolution. We examined whether urban environmental change drives parallel evolution by sampling 110,019 white clover plants from 6169 populations in 160 cities globally. Plants were assayed for a Mendelian antiherbivore defense that also affects tolerance to abiotic stressors. Urban-rural gradients were associated with the evolution of clines in defense in 47% of cities throughout the world. Variation in the strength of clines was explained by environmental changes in drought stress and vegetation cover that varied among cities. Sequencing 2074 genomes from 26 cities revealed that the evolution of urban-rural clines was best explained by adaptive evolution, but the degree of parallel adaptation varied among cities. Our results demonstrate that urbanization leads to adaptation at a global scale

Acromioclavicular joint augmentation at the time of coracoclavicular ligament reconstruction fails to improve functional outcomes despite significantly improved horizontal stability

Purpose: Acromioclavicular joint reconstruction is a well-established and frequently performed procedure. Recent scientific and commercial interest has led to a drive to develop and perform surgical techniques that more reliably restore horizontal stability in order to improve patient outcomes. The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the biomechanical evidence for procedures directed at restoring horizontal stability and determine whether they are associated with superior clinical results when compared to well-established procedures. Methods: A review of the online databases Medline and EMBASE was conducted in accordance with the PRISMA guidelines on the 23rd December 2017. Biomechanical and clinical studies reporting either static or dynamic horizontal displacement following acromioclavicular joint reconstruction (Coracoclavicular reconstruction or Weaver-Dunn) were included. In addition, biomechanical and clinical studies reporting outcomes after additional augmentation of the acromioclavicular joint were included. The studies were appraised using the Methodological index for non-randomised studies tool. Results: The search strategy identified 18 studies eligible for inclusion: six biomechanical and 12 clinical studies. Comparative biomechanical studies demonstrated that acromioclavicular augmentation provided significantly increased horizontal stability compared to the coracoclavicular reconstruction and Weaver–Dunn procedure. Comparative clinical studies demonstrated no significant differences between coracoclavicular reconstruction with and without acromioclavicular augmentation in terms of functional outcomes (American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeon and Constant score), complication or revision rates. However, one comparative study did demonstrate an improvement in Taft (p = 0.018) and Acromioclavicular Joint Instability scores (p = 0.0001) after acromioclavicular augmentation. Conclusion: In conclusion, coracoclavicular reconstruction with augmentation of the acromioclavicular joint has been shown to provide improved horizontal stability in both biomechanical and clinical studies compared to isolated coracoclavicular reconstruction. However, comparative studies have shown no clinical advantage with respect to American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeon or Constant scores and, therefore, the results of this systematic review do not support acromioclavicular augmentation in routine clinical practice. Level of evidence: IV

The genetic architecture of helminth-specific immune responses in a wild population of Soay sheep (Ovis aries)

Much of our knowledge of the drivers of immune variation, and how these responses vary over time, comes from humans, domesticated livestock or laboratory organisms. While the genetic basis of variation in immune responses have been investigated in these systems, there is a poor understanding of how genetic variation influences immunity in natural, untreated populations living in complex environments. Here, we examine the genetic architecture of variation in immune traits in the Soay sheep of St Kilda, an unmanaged population of sheep infected with strongyle gastrointestinal nematodes. We assayed IgA, IgE and IgG antibodies against the prevalent nematode Teladorsagia circumcincta in the blood plasma of > 3,000 sheep collected over 26 years. Antibody levels were significantly heritable (h2 = 0.21 to 0.57) and highly stable over an individual’s lifespan. IgA levels were strongly associated with a region on chromosome 24 explaining 21.1% and 24.5% of heritable variation in lambs and adults, respectively. This region was adjacent to two candidate loci, Class II Major Histocompatibility Complex Transactivator (CIITA) and C-Type Lectin Domain Containing 16A (CLEC16A). Lamb IgA levels were also associated with the immunoglobulin heavy constant loci (IGH) complex, and adult IgE levels and lamb IgA and IgG levels were associated with the major histocompatibility complex (MHC). This study provides evidence of high heritability of a complex immunological trait under natural conditions and provides the first evidence from a genome-wide study that large effect genes located outside the MHC region exist for immune traits in the wild

Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants

Background Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30–79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age. Findings The number of people aged 30–79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306–359) million women and 317 (292–344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584–668) million women and 652 (604–698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55–62) of women and 49% (46–52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43–51) of women and 38% (35–41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20–27) for women and 18% (16–21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran. Interpretation Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings. Funding WHO

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities. This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity. Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017—and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions—was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing—and in some countries reversal—of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories

General and abdominal adiposity and hypertension in eight world regions: a pooled analysis of 837 population-based studies with 7•5 million participants

Background Adiposity can be measured using BMI (which is based on weight and height) as well as indices of abdominal adiposity. We examined the association between BMI and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) within and across populations of different world regions and quantified how well these two metrics discriminate between people with and without hypertension. Methods We used data from studies carried out from 1990 to 2023 on BMI, WHtR and hypertension in people aged 20–64 years in representative samples of the general population in eight world regions. We graphically compared the regional distributions of BMI and WHtR, and calculated Pearson's correlation coefficients between BMI and WHtR within each region. We used mixed-effects linear regression to estimate the extent to which WHtR varies across regions at the same BMI. We graphically examined the prevalence of hypertension and the distribution of people who have hypertension both in relation to BMI and WHtR, and we assessed how closely BMI and WHtR discriminate between participants with and without hypertension using C-statistic and net reclassification improvement (NRI). Findings The correlation between BMI and WHtR ranged from 0·76 to 0·89 within different regions. After adjusting for age and BMI, mean WHtR was highest in south Asia for both sexes, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. Mean WHtR was lowest in central and eastern Europe for both sexes, in the high-income western region for women, and in Oceania for men. Conversely, to achieve an equivalent WHtR, the BMI of the population of south Asia would need to be, on average, 2·79 kg/m2 (95% CI 2·31–3·28) lower for women and 1·28 kg/m2 (1·02–1·54) lower for men than in the high-income western region. In every region, hypertension prevalence increased with both BMI and WHtR. Models with either of these two adiposity metrics had virtually identical C-statistics and NRIs for every region and sex, with C-statistics ranging from 0·72 to 0·81 and NRIs ranging from 0·34 to 0·57 in different region and sex combinations. When both BMI and WHtR were used, performance improved only slightly compared with using either adiposity measure alone. Interpretation BMI can distinguish young and middle-aged adults with higher versus lower amounts of abdominal adiposity with moderate-to-high accuracy, and both BMI and WHtR distinguish people with or without hypertension. However, at the same BMI level, people in south Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa, have higher WHtR than in the other regions. Funding UK Medical Research Council and UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK)