The science of clinical practice: disease diagnosis or patient prognosis? Evidence about "what is likely to happen" should shape clinical practice.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis is the traditional basis for decision-making in clinical practice. Evidence is often lacking about future benefits and harms of these decisions for patients diagnosed with and without disease. We propose that a model of clinical practice focused on patient prognosis and predicting the likelihood of future outcomes may be more useful. DISCUSSION: Disease diagnosis can provide crucial information for clinical decisions that influence outcome in serious acute illness. However, the central role of diagnosis in clinical practice is challenged by evidence that it does not always benefit patients and that factors other than disease are important in determining patient outcome. The concept of disease as a dichotomous 'yes' or 'no' is challenged by the frequent use of diagnostic indicators with continuous distributions, such as blood sugar, which are better understood as contributing information about the probability of a patient's future outcome. Moreover, many illnesses, such as chronic fatigue, cannot usefully be labelled from a disease-diagnosis perspective. In such cases, a prognostic model provides an alternative framework for clinical practice that extends beyond disease and diagnosis and incorporates a wide range of information to predict future patient outcomes and to guide decisions to improve them. Such information embraces non-disease factors and genetic and other biomarkers which influence outcome. SUMMARY: Patient prognosis can provide the framework for modern clinical practice to integrate information from the expanding biological, social, and clinical database for more effective and efficient care

Developing an Individual-level Geodemographic Classification

Geodemographics is a spatially explicit classification of socio-economic data, which can be used to describe and analyse individuals by where they live. Geodemographic information is used by the public sector for planning and resource allocation but it also has considerable use within commercial sector applications. Early geodemographic systems, such as the UK’s ACORN (A Classification of Residential Neighbourhoods), used only area-based census data, but more recent systems have added supplementary layers of information, e.g. credit details and survey data, to provide better discrimination between classes. Although much more data has now become available, geodemographic systems are still fundamentally built from area-based census information. This is partly because privacy laws require release of census data at an aggregate level but mostly because much of the research remains proprietary. Household level classifications do exist but they are often based on regressions between area and household data sets. This paper presents a different approach for creating a geodemographic classification at the individual level using only census data. A generic framework is presented, which classifies data from the UK Census Small Area Microdata and then allocates the resulting clusters to a synthetic population created via microsimulation. The framework is then applied to the creation of an individual-based system for the city of Leeds, demonstrated using data from the 2001 census, and is further validated using individual and household survey data from the British Household Panel Survey

Prevention of haematoma progression by tranexamic acid in intracerebral haemorrhage patients with and without spot sign on admission scan: a statistical analysis plan of a pre-specified sub-study of the TICH-2 trial

Objective We present the statistical analysis plan of a prespecified Tranexamic Acid for Hyperacute Primary Intracerebral Haemorrhage (TICH)-2 sub-study aiming to investigate, if tranexamic acid has a different effect in intracerebral haemorrhage patients with the spot sign on admission compared to spot sign negative patients. The TICH-2 trial recruited above 2000 participants with intracerebral haemorrhage arriving in hospital within 8 h after symptom onset. They were included irrespective of radiological signs of on-going haematoma expansion. Participants were randomised to tranexamic acid versus matching placebo. In this subgroup analysis, we will include all participants in TICH-2 with a computed tomography angiography on admission allowing adjudication of the participants’ spot sign status. Results Primary outcome will be the ability of tranexamic acid to limit absolute haematoma volume on computed tomography at 24 h (± 12 h) after randomisation among spot sign positive and spot sign negative participants, respectively. Within all outcome measures, the effect of tranexamic acid in spot sign positive/negative participants will be compared using tests of interaction. This sub-study will investigate the important clinical hypothesis that spot sign positive patients might benefit more from administration of tranexamic acid compared to spot sign negative patients

Hand Motor Dysfunction Is Associated with Both Subjective and Objective Cognitive Impairment across the Dementia Continuum.

INTRODUCTION: Motor dysfunction is an important feature of early-stage dementia. Gait provides a non-invasive biomarker across the dementia continuum. Gait speed and rhythm aid risk stratification of incident dementia in subjective cognitive impairment (SCI) and are associated with cognitive domains in mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia. However, hand movement analysis, which may be more accessible, has never been undertaken in SCI and rarely in MCI or dementia. We aimed to address this gap and improve understanding of hand motor-cognitive associations across the dementia continuum. METHODS: A total of 208 participants were recruited: 50 with dementia, 58 MCI, 40 SCI, and 60 healthy controls. Consensus diagnoses were made after comprehensive gold-standard assessments. A computer key-tapping test measured frequency, dwell-time, rhythm, errors, and speed. Associations between key-tapping and cognitive domains and diagnoses were analysed using regression. Classification accuracy was measured using area under receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS: Hand frequency and speed were associated with memory and executive domains (p ≤ 0.001). Non-dominant hand rhythm was associated with all cognitive domains. Frequency, rhythm, and speed were associated with SCI, MCI, and dementia. Frequency and speed classified ≥94% of dementia and ≥88% of MCI from controls. Rhythm of the non-dominant hand classified ≥86% of dementia and MCI and 69% of SCI. CONCLUSION: Our findings show hand motor dysfunction occurs across the dementia continuum and, similar to gait, is associated with executive and memory domains and with cognitive diagnoses. Key-tapping performance differentiated dementia and MCI from healthy controls. More research is required before recommending key-tapping as a non-invasive motor biomarker of cognitive impairment

Isolated rapid eye movement sleep behaviour disorder (iRBD) in the Island Study Linking Ageing and Neurodegenerative Disease (ISLAND) Sleep Study: protocol and baseline characteristics

Isolated rapid eye movement (REM) sleep behaviour disorder (iRBD) is a sleep disorder that is characterised by dream enactment episodes during REM sleep. It is the strongest known predictor of α-synuclein-related neurodegenerative disease (αNDD), such that >80% of people with iRBD will eventually develop Parkinson's disease, dementia with Lewy bodies, or multiple system atrophy in later life. More research is needed to understand the trajectory of phenoconversion to each αNDD. Only five 'gold standard' prevalence studies of iRBD in older adults have been undertaken previously, with estimates ranging from 0.74% to 2.01%. The diagnostic recommendations for video-polysomnography (vPSG) to confirm iRBD makes prevalence studies challenging, as vPSG is often unavailable to large cohorts. In Australia, there have been no iRBD prevalence studies, and little is known about the cognitive and motor profiles of Australian people with iRBD. The Island Study Linking Ageing and Neurodegenerative Disease (ISLAND) Sleep Study will investigate the prevalence of iRBD in Tasmania, an island state of Australia, using validated questionnaires and home-based vPSG. It will also explore several cognitive, motor, olfactory, autonomic, visual, tactile, and sleep profiles in people with iRBD to better understand which characteristics influence the progression of iRBD to αNDD. This paper details the ISLAND Sleep Study protocol and presents preliminary baseline results

Does moxibustion work? An overview of systematic reviews

Abstract Background Several systematic reviews (SRs) have assessed the effectiveness of moxibustion for a range of conditions, often with contradictory conclusions. Our aim was to provide a critical evaluation and summary of these data. Methods Electronic searches were conducted to locate all SRs of moxibustion for any condition. Data were extracted by two authors according to predefined criteria. Results Ten SRs met our inclusion criteria, which related to the following conditions: cancer, ulcerative colitis, stroke rehabilitation, constipation, hypertension, pain conditions and breech presentation. Their conclusions were contradictory in several instances. Relatively clear evidence emerged to suggest that moxibustion is effective for breech presentation. Conclusions Based on evidence from the currently available SRs, the effectiveness of moxibustion has been demonstrated for several conditions; however, due to the poor quality of the primary studies, there remains considerable uncertainty.</p