Scenario-led habitat modelling of land use change impacts on key species

© 2015 Gearyet al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Accurate predictions of the impacts of future land use change on species of conservation concern can help to inform policy-makers and improve conservation measures. If predictions are spatially explicit, predicted consequences of likely land use changes could be accessible to land managers at a scale relevant to their working landscape. We introduce a method, based on open source software, which integrates habitat suitability modelling with scenario-building, and illustrate its use by investigating the effects of alternative land use change scenarios on landscape suitability for black grouse Tetrao tetrix. Expert opinion was used to construct five near-future (twenty years) scenarios for the 800 km 2 study site in upland Scotland. For each scenario, the cover of different land use types was altered by 5-30% from 20 random starting locations and changes in habitat suitability assessed by projecting a MaxEnt suitability model onto each simulated landscape. A scenario converting grazed land to moorland and open forestry was the most beneficial for black grouse, and 'increased grazing' (the opposite conversion) the most detrimental. Positioning of new landscape blocks was shown to be important in some situations. Increasing the area of opencanopy forestry caused a proportional decrease in suitability, but suitability gains for the 'reduced grazing' scenario were nonlinear. 'Scenario-led' landscape simulation models can be applied in assessments of the impacts of land use change both on individual species and also on diversity and community measures, or ecosystem services. A next step would be to include landscape configuration more explicitly in the simulation models, both to make them more realistic, and to examine the effects of habitat placement more thoroughly. In this example, the recommended policy would be incentives on grazing reduction to benefit black grouse

Resource heterogeneity and community structure: A case study in Heliconia imbricata Phytotelmata

Complex or non-additive differences in the distribution and abundance of arthropod species inhabiting the water-filled bracts of Heliconia imbricata can be created by simple manipulations of resource levels. The primary resources for these assemblages are the corollas of the flowers that accumulate in the bracts. Removing or adding corollas to individual bracts changes the pattern in the abundance of arthropod species within each bract such that bracts with different treatments ultimately differ in composition and numerical associations among species. These results suggest that direct and indirect resource-mediated factors can structure or significantly affect the distribution and abundance of species in these and perhaps other assemblages. Thus, in natural communities, if resources are heterogeneous among patches (such as among the bracts in this study) structure in a given patch may be a function of the resource level of that patch and can differ significantly from neighboring patches that provide different resource levels.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/47788/1/442_2004_Article_BF00665591.pd