Future orientation and planning in forestry: a comparison of forest managers' planning horizons in Germany and the Netherlands

Long range (or strategic) planning is an important tool for forest management to deal with the complex and unpredictable future. However, it is the ability to make meaningful predictions about the rapidly changing future that is questioned. What appears to be particularly neglected is the question of the length of time horizons and the limits (if any) to these horizons, despite being considered one of the most critical factors in strategic planning. As the future creation of values lies within individual responsibility, this research empirically explored the limits (if any) of individual foresters¿ time horizons. To draw comparisons between countries with different traditions in forest management planning, data were collected through telephone surveys of forest managers in the state/national forest services of the Netherlands and Germany. In order to minimize other cultural differences, the research in Germany concentrated on the federal state of Nordrhein-Westfalen, which has considerable similarities with the Netherlands, e.g. in topography, forest types and forest functions. The results show that, in practice, 15 years appears to be the most distant horizon that foresters can identify with. This is in sharp contrast to the time horizons spanning decades and even generations that are always said to exist in forestry. The ¿doctrine of the long run¿¿the faith in the capacity of foresters to overcome the barriers of the uncertain future and look ahead and plan for long-range goals¿which in many countries still underlies traditional forest management, can therefore be rejected

Contextualised strong reciprocity explains selfless cooperation despite selfish intuitions and weak social heuristics

Humans frequently cooperate for collective benefit, even in one-shot social dilemmas. This provides a challenge for theories of cooperation. Two views focus on intuitions but offer conflicting explanations. The Social Heuristics Hypothesis argues that people with selfish preferences rely on cooperative intuitions and predicts that deliberation reduces cooperation. The Self-Control Account emphasizes control over selfish intuitions and is consistent with strong reciprocity—a preference for conditional cooperation in one-shot dilemmas. Here, we reconcile these explanations with each other as well as with strong reciprocity. We study one-shot cooperation across two main dilemma contexts, provision and maintenance, and show that cooperation is higher in provision than maintenance. Using time-limit manipulations, we experimentally study the cognitive processes underlying this robust result. Supporting the Self-Control Account, people are intuitively selfish in maintenance, with deliberation increasing cooperation. In contrast, consistent with the Social Heuristics Hypothesis, deliberation tends to increase the likelihood of free-riding in provision. Contextual differences between maintenance and provision are observed across additional measures: reaction time patterns of cooperation; social dilemma understanding; perceptions of social appropriateness; beliefs about others’ cooperation; and cooperation preferences. Despite these dilemma-specific asymmetries, we show that preferences, coupled with beliefs, successfully predict the high levels of cooperation in both maintenance and provision dilemmas. While the effects of intuitions are context-dependent and small, the widespread preference for strong reciprocity is the primary driver of one-shot cooperation. We advance the Contextualised Strong Reciprocity account as a unifying framework and consider its implications for research and policy

Mitogenomes from Egyptian Cattle Breeds: New Clues on the Origin of Haplogroup Q and the Early Spread of Bos taurus from the Near East

Background Genetic studies support the scenario that Bos taurus domestication occurred in the Near East during the Neolithic transition about 10 thousand years (ky) ago, with the likely exception of a minor secondary event in Italy. However, despite the proven effectiveness of whole mitochondrial genome data in providing valuable information concerning the origin of taurine cattle, until now no population surveys have been carried out at the level of mitogenomes in local breeds from the Near East or surrounding areas. Egypt is in close geographic and cultural proximity to the Near East, in particular the Nile Delta region, and was one of the first neighboring areas to adopt the Neolithic package. Thus, a survey of mitogenome variation of autochthonous taurine breeds from the Nile Delta region might provide new insights on the early spread of cattle rearing outside the Near East. Methodology Using Illumina high-throughput sequencing we characterized the mitogenomes from two cattle breeds, Menofi (N = 17) and Domiaty (N = 14), from the Nile Delta region. Phylogenetic and Bayesian analyses were subsequently performed. Conclusions Phylogenetic analyses of the 31 mitogenomes confirmed the prevalence of haplogroup T1, similar to most African cattle breeds, but showed also high frequencies for haplogroups T2, T3 and Q1, and an extremely high haplotype diversity, while Bayesian skyline plots pointed to a main episode of population growth ~12.5 ky ago. Comparisons of Nile Delta mitogenomes with those from other geographic areas revealed that (i) most Egyptian mtDNAs are probably direct local derivatives from the founder domestic herds which first arrived from the Near East and the extent of gene flow from and towards the Nile Delta region was limited after the initial founding event(s); (ii) haplogroup Q1 was among these founders, thus proving that it underwent domestication in the Near East together with the founders of the T clades

Size constancy is preserved but afterimages are prolonged in typical individuals with higher degrees of self-reported autistic traits

Deficits in perceptual constancies from early infancy have been proposed to contribute to autism and exacerbate its symptoms (Hellendoorn et al., Frontiers in Psychology 6:1–16, 2015). Here, we examined size constancy in adults from the general population (N = 106) with different levels of self-reported autistic traits using an approach based on negative afterimages. The afterimage strength, as indexed by duration and vividness, was also quantified. In opposition to the Hellendoorn and colleagues’ model, we were unable to demonstrate any kind of relationship between abilities in size constancy and autistic traits. However, our results demonstrated that individuals with higher degrees of autistic traits experienced more persistent afterimages. We discuss possible retinal and post-retinal explanations for prolonged afterimages in people with higher levels of autistic traits

Worldwide comparison of survival from childhood leukaemia for 1995–2009, by subtype, age, and sex (CONCORD-2): a population-based study of individual data for 89 828 children from 198 registries in 53 countries

Background Global inequalities in access to health care are reflected in differences in cancer survival. The CONCORD programme was designed to assess worldwide differences and trends in population-based cancer survival. In this population-based study, we aimed to estimate survival inequalities globally for several subtypes of childhood leukaemia. Methods Cancer registries participating in CONCORD were asked to submit tumour registrations for all children aged 0-14 years who were diagnosed with leukaemia between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2009, and followed up until Dec 31, 2009. Haematological malignancies were defined by morphology codes in the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third revision. We excluded data from registries from which the data were judged to be less reliable, or included only lymphomas, and data from countries in which data for fewer than ten children were available for analysis. We also excluded records because of a missing date of birth, diagnosis, or last known vital status. We estimated 5-year net survival (ie, the probability of surviving at least 5 years after diagnosis, after controlling for deaths from other causes [background mortality]) for children by calendar period of diagnosis (1995-99, 2000-04, and 2005-09), sex, and age at diagnosis (< 1, 1-4, 5-9, and 10-14 years, inclusive) using appropriate life tables. We estimated age-standardised net survival for international comparison of survival trends for precursor-cell acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) and acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). Findings We analysed data from 89 828 children from 198 registries in 53 countries. During 1995-99, 5-year agestandardised net survival for all lymphoid leukaemias combined ranged from 10.6% (95% CI 3.1-18.2) in the Chinese registries to 86.8% (81.6-92.0) in Austria. International differences in 5-year survival for childhood leukaemia were still large as recently as 2005-09, when age-standardised survival for lymphoid leukaemias ranged from 52.4% (95% CI 42.8-61.9) in Cali, Colombia, to 91.6% (89.5-93.6) in the German registries, and for AML ranged from 33.3% (18.9-47.7) in Bulgaria to 78.2% (72.0-84.3) in German registries. Survival from precursor-cell ALL was very close to that of all lymphoid leukaemias combined, with similar variation. In most countries, survival from AML improved more than survival from ALL between 2000-04 and 2005-09. Survival for each type of leukaemia varied markedly with age: survival was highest for children aged 1-4 and 5-9 years, and lowest for infants (younger than 1 year). There was no systematic difference in survival between boys and girls. Interpretation Global inequalities in survival from childhood leukaemia have narrowed with time but remain very wide for both ALL and AML. These results provide useful information for health policy makers on the effectiveness of health-care systems and for cancer policy makers to reduce inequalities in childhood survival

Hierarchical Regression for Multiple Comparisons in a Case-Control Study of Occupational Risks for Lung Cancer

BACKGROUND Occupational studies often involve multiple comparisons and therefore suffer from false positive findings. Semi-Bayes adjustment methods have sometimes been used to address this issue. Hierarchical regression is a more general approach, including Semi-Bayes adjustment as a special case, that aims at improving the validity of standard maximum-likelihood estimates in the presence of multiple comparisons by incorporating similarities between the exposures of interest in a second-stage model. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We re-analysed data from an occupational case-control study of lung cancer, applying hierarchical regression. In the second-stage model, we included the exposure to three known lung carcinogens (asbestos, chromium and silica) for each occupation, under the assumption that occupations entailing similar carcinogenic exposures are associated with similar risks of lung cancer. Hierarchical regression estimates had smaller confidence intervals than maximum-likelihood estimates. The shrinkage toward the null was stronger for extreme, less stable estimates (e.g., "specialised farmers": maximum-likelihood OR: 3.44, 95%CI 0.90-13.17; hierarchical regression OR: 1.53, 95%CI 0.63-3.68). Unlike Semi-Bayes adjustment toward the global mean, hierarchical regression did not shrink all the ORs towards the null (e.g., "Metal smelting, converting and refining furnacemen": maximum-likelihood OR: 1.07, Semi-Bayes OR: 1.06, hierarchical regression OR: 1.26). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Hierarchical regression could be a valuable tool in occupational studies in which disease risk is estimated for a large amount of occupations when we have information available on the key carcinogenic exposures involved in each occupation. With the constant progress in exposure assessment methods in occupational settings and the availability of Job Exposure Matrices, it should become easier to apply this approach

A Family of Plasmodesmal Proteins with Receptor-Like Properties for Plant Viral Movement Proteins

Plasmodesmata (PD) are essential but poorly understood structures in plant cell walls that provide symplastic continuity and intercellular communication pathways between adjacent cells and thus play fundamental roles in development and pathogenesis. Viruses encode movement proteins (MPs) that modify these tightly regulated pores to facilitate their spread from cell to cell. The most striking of these modifications is observed for groups of viruses whose MPs form tubules that assemble in PDs and through which virions are transported to neighbouring cells. The nature of the molecular interactions between viral MPs and PD components and their role in viral movement has remained essentially unknown. Here, we show that the family of PD-located proteins (PDLPs) promotes the movement of viruses that use tubule-guided movement by interacting redundantly with tubule-forming MPs within PDs. Genetic disruption of this interaction leads to reduced tubule formation, delayed infection and attenuated symptoms. Our results implicate PDLPs as PD proteins with receptor-like properties involved the assembly of viral MPs into tubules to promote viral movement

Conceptualising spirituality for medical research and health service provision

The need to take account of spirituality in research and health services provision is assuming ever greater importance. However the field has long been hampered by a lack of conceptual clarity about the nature of spirituality itself. We do not agree with the sceptical claim that it is impossible to conceptualise spirituality within a scientific paradigm. Our aims are to 1) provide a brief over-view of critical thinking that might form the basis for a useful definition of spirituality for research and clinical work and 2) demystify the language of spirituality for clinical practice and research

Mepolizumab versus benralizumab for eosinophilic granulomatosis with polyangiitis (EGPA): A European real-life retrospective comparative study

Background: Following the results of the MANDARA trial, this real-life study aimed at comparing the effectiveness and safety profile of mepolizumab versus benralizumab in a European EGPA cohort. Methods: We conducted a retrospective observational comparative study including EGPA patients, who received mepolizumab or benralizumab at the asthma dose. Patients were matched 1:1 by sex, age, BVAS and oral corticosteroid (OCS) dosage at the treatment initiation (T0). Complete response (CR) and partial response (PR), disease activity, OCS, pulmonary parameters, eosinophil count, relapses, and safety outcomes were also compared at 3, 6 and 12 months. Results: Patients treated with mepolizumab or benralizumab (n = 88 each) were matched: 57 % were females, median age was 54 years (IQR 45–60), median OCS dose 10 (7.5–12.5) and 10 (7–13) mg/day, median BVAS 4 (2–7) and 3 (2–8), respectively. 45.4 % of patients in the mepolizumab group and 51.1 % in the benralizumab group achieved CR or PR at T3, with CR steadily increasing during follow-up for both treatments. At T12, a higher CR rate was found in the benralizumab group (48.1 % vs 32.4 %, p = 0.005). No differences in BVAS, OCS, and respiratory parameters were observed between groups at the different timepoints. Throughout the follow-up, both treatments reduced eosinophil count, although a deeper reduction was found in the benralizumab group at all timepoints (p &lt; 0.0001). Safety profile was comparable between patient groups. Conclusion: Mepolizumab and benralizumab showed comparable overall effectiveness and safety in EGPA. However, benralizumab achieved a higher CR rate at T12, and a deeper peripheral eosinophil reduction