Combination schemes for turning point prediction

We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The combination schemes deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning point predictions. We consider turning point predictions generated by autoregressive (AR) and Markov-Switching AR models, which are commonly used for business cycle analysis. In order to account for parameter uncertainty we consider a Bayesian approach to both estimation and prediction and compare, in terms of statistical accuracy, the individual models and the combined turning point predictions for the United States and Euro area business cycles

Genetic architecture and evolution of the S locus supergene in Primula vulgaris

Darwin’s studies on heterostyly in Primula described two floral morphs, pin and thrum, with reciprocal anther and stigma heights that promote insect-mediated cross-pollination. This key innovation evolved independently in several angiosperm families. Subsequent studies on heterostyly in Primula contributed to the foundation of modern genetic theory and the neo-Darwinian synthesis. The established genetic model for Primula heterostyly involves a diallelic S locus comprising several genes, with rare recombination events that result in self-fertile homostyle flowers with anthers and stigma at the same height. Here we reveal the S locus supergene as a tightly-linked cluster of thrum-specific genes that are absent in pins. We show that thrums are hemizygous not heterozygous for the S locus, which suggests that homostyles do not arise by recombination between S locus haplotypes as previously proposed. Duplication of a floral homeotic gene 51.7 MYA, followed by its neofunctionalisation, created the current S locus assemblage which led to floral heteromorphy in Primula. Our findings provide new insights into the structure, function and evolution of this archetypal supergene

Ecological commonalities among pelagic fishes: comparison of freshwater ciscoes and marine herring and sprat

Systematic comparisons of the ecology between functionally similar fish species from freshwater and marine aquatic systems are surprisingly rare. Here, we discuss commonalities and differences in evolutionary history, population genetics, reproduction and life history, ecological interactions, behavioural ecology and physiological ecology of temperate and Arctic freshwater coregonids (vendace and ciscoes, Coregonus spp.) and marine clupeids (herring, Clupea harengus, and sprat, Sprattus sprattus). We further elucidate potential effects of climate warming on these groups of fish based on the ecological features of coregonids and clupeids documented in the previous parts of the review. These freshwater and marine fishes share a surprisingly high number of similarities. Both groups are relatively short-lived, pelagic planktivorous fishes. The genetic differentiation of local populations is weak and seems to be in part correlated to an astonishing variability of spawning times. The discrete thermal window of each species influences habitat use, diel vertical migrations and supposedly also life history variations. Complex life cycles and preference for cool or cold water make all species vulnerable to the effects of global warming. It is suggested that future research on the functional interdependence between spawning time, life history characteristics, thermal windows and genetic differentiation may profit from a systematic comparison of the patterns found in either coregonids or clupeids

Large-scale unit commitment under uncertainty: an updated literature survey

The Unit Commitment problem in energy management aims at finding the optimal production schedule of a set of generation units, while meeting various system-wide constraints. It has always been a large-scale, non-convex, difficult problem, especially in view of the fact that, due to operational requirements, it has to be solved in an unreasonably small time for its size. Recently, growing renewable energy shares have strongly increased the level of uncertainty in the system, making the (ideal) Unit Commitment model a large-scale, non-convex and uncertain (stochastic, robust, chance-constrained) program. We provide a survey of the literature on methods for the Uncertain Unit Commitment problem, in all its variants. We start with a review of the main contributions on solution methods for the deterministic versions of the problem, focussing on those based on mathematical programming techniques that are more relevant for the uncertain versions of the problem. We then present and categorize the approaches to the latter, while providing entry points to the relevant literature on optimization under uncertainty. This is an updated version of the paper "Large-scale Unit Commitment under uncertainty: a literature survey" that appeared in 4OR 13(2), 115--171 (2015); this version has over 170 more citations, most of which appeared in the last three years, proving how fast the literature on uncertain Unit Commitment evolves, and therefore the interest in this subject

Precision Newborn Screening for Lysosomal Disorders

Purpose: The implementation of newborn screening for lysosomal disorders has uncovered overall poor specificity, psychosocial harm experienced by caregivers, and costly follow-up testing of false-positive cases. We report an informatics solution proven to minimize these issues. Methods: The Kentucky Department for Public Health outsourced testing for mucopolysaccharidosis type I (MPS I) and Pompe disease, conditions recently added to the recommended uniform screening panel, plus Krabbe disease, which was added by legislative mandate. A total of 55,161 specimens were collected from infants born over 1 year starting from February 2016. Testing by tandem mass spectrometry was integrated with multivariate pattern recognition software (Collaborative Laboratory Integrated Reports), which is freely available to newborn screening programs for selection of cases for which a biochemical second-tier test is needed. Results: Of five presumptive positive cases, one was affected with infantile Krabbe disease, two with Pompe disease, and one with MPS I. The remaining case was a heterozygote for the latter condition. The false-positive rate was 0.0018% and the positive predictive value was 80%. Conclusion: Postanalytical interpretive tools can drastically reduce false-positive outcomes, with preliminary evidence of no greater risk of false-negative events, still to be verified by long-term surveillance

Tracing the Origin of the Fungal α1 Domain Places Its Ancestor in the HMG-Box Superfamily: Implication for Fungal Mating-Type Evolution

BACKGROUND: Fungal mating types in self-incompatible Pezizomycotina are specified by one of two alternate sequences occupying the same locus on corresponding chromosomes. One sequence is characterized by a gene encoding an HMG protein, while the hallmark of the other is a gene encoding a protein with an α1 domain showing similarity to the Matα1p protein of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. DNA-binding HMG proteins are ubiquitous and well characterized. In contrast, α1 domain proteins have limited distribution and their evolutionary origin is obscure, precluding a complete understanding of mating-type evolution in Ascomycota. Although much work has focused on the role of the S. cerevisiae Matα1p protein as a transcription factor, it has not yet been placed in any of the large families of sequence-specific DNA-binding proteins. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We present sequence comparisons, phylogenetic analyses, and in silico predictions of secondary and tertiary structures, which support our hypothesis that the α1 domain is related to the HMG domain. We have also characterized a new conserved motif in α1 proteins of Pezizomycotina. This motif is immediately adjacent to and downstream of the α1 domain and consists of a core sequence Y-[LMIF]-x(3)-G-[WL] embedded in a larger conserved motif. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our data suggest that extant α1-box genes originated from an ancestral HMG gene, which confirms the current model of mating-type evolution within the fungal kingdom. We propose to incorporate α1 proteins in a new subclass of HMG proteins termed MATα_HMG

Expression of estrogen receptors in the hypothalamo-pituitary-ovarian axis in middle-aged rats after re-instatement of estrus cyclicity

During reproductive aging female rats enter an anovulatory state of persistent estrus (PE). In an animal model of re-instatement of estrus cyclicity in middle-aged PE rats we injected the animals with progesterone (0.5 mg progesterone/kg body weight) at 12:00 for 4 days whereas control animals received corn oil injections. After the last injection animals were analyzed at 13:00 and 17:00. Young regular cycling rats served as positive controls and were assessed at 13:00 and 17:00 on proestrus. Progesterone treatment of middle-aged PE rats led to occurrence of luteinizing hormone (LH), follicle stimulating hormone (FSH), and prolactin surges in a subset of animals that were denoted as responders. Responding middle-aged rats displayed a reduction of ER-β mRNA in the preoptic area which was similar to the effect in young rats. Within the mediobasal hypothalamus, only young rats showed a decline of ER-α mRNA expression. A decrease of ER-α mRNA levels in the pituitary was observed in progesterone-responsive rats and in young animals. ER-β mRNA expression was reduced in young regular cycling rats. ER-β mRNA levels in the ovary were reduced following progesterone treatment in PE rats and in young rats. Taken together our data show that cyclic administration of progesterone reinstates ovulatory cycles in intact aging females which have already lost their ability to display spontaneous cyclicity. This treatment leads to the occurrence of preovulatory LH, FSH and prolactin surges which are accompanied by differential modulation of ERs in the hypothalamus, the pituitary and the ovary

Evolutionary History of the Vertebrate Mitogen Activated Protein Kinases Family

Background: The mitogen activated protein kinases (MAPK) family pathway is implicated in diverse cellular processes and pathways essential to most organisms. Its evolution is conserved throughout the eukaryotic kingdoms. However, the detailed evolutionary history of the vertebrate MAPK family is largely unclear. Methodology/Principal Findings: The MAPK family members were collected from literatures or by searching the genomes of several vertebrates and invertebrates with the known MAPK sequences as queries. We found that vertebrates had significantly more MAPK family members than invertebrates, and the vertebrate MAPK family originated from 3 progenitors, suggesting that a burst of gene duplication events had occurred after the divergence of vertebrates from invertebrates. Conservation of evolutionary synteny was observed in the vertebrate MAPK subfamilies 4, 6, 7, and 11 to 14. Based on synteny and phylogenetic relationships, MAPK12 appeared to have arisen from a tandem duplication of MAPK11 and the MAPK13-MAPK14 gene unit was from a segmental duplication of the MAPK11-MAPK12 gene unit. Adaptive evolution analyses reveal that purifying selection drove the evolution of MAPK family, implying strong functional constraints of MAPK genes. Intriguingly, however, intron losses were specifically observed in the MAPK4 and MAPK7 genes, but not in their flanking genes, during the evolution from teleosts to amphibians and mammals. The specific occurrence of intron losses in the MAPK4 and MAPK7 subfamilies might be associated with adaptive evolution of the vertebrates by enhancing the gen