Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity: mathematical modeling analyses.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of reducing the prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity, and introducing physical activity as an explicit intervention, on the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), using Qatar as an example. METHODS: A population-level mathematical model was adapted and expanded. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status, and parameterized by nationally representative data. Modeled interventions were introduced in 2016, reached targeted level by 2031, and then maintained up to 2050. Diverse intervention scenarios were assessed and compared with a counter-factual no intervention baseline scenario. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence increased from 16.7% in 2016 to 24.0% in 2050 in the baseline scenario. By 2050, through halting the rise or reducing obesity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 7.8-33.7%, incidence by 8.4-38.9%, and related deaths by 2.1-13.2%. For smoking, through halting the rise or reducing smoking prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-2.8%, incidence by 0.5-3.2%, and related deaths by 0.1-0.7%. For physical inactivity, through halting the rise or reducing physical inactivity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-6.9%, incidence by 0.5-7.9%, and related deaths by 0.2-2.8%. Introduction of physical activity with varying intensity at 25% coverage reduced T2DM prevalence by 3.3-9.2%, incidence by 4.2-11.5%, and related deaths by 1.9-5.2%. CONCLUSIONS: Major reductions in T2DM incidence could be accomplished by reducing obesity, while modest reductions could be accomplished by reducing smoking and physical inactivity, or by introducing physical activity as an intervention

Forecasting the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar to 2050: A novel modeling approach.

AIMS: We developed and demonstrated a novel mathematical modeling approach to forecast the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and to investigate T2DM epidemiology for the purpose of informing public health policy and programming. METHODS: A population-level compartmental mathematical model was constructed and applied to Qatar. The model was stratified according to sex, age group, risk factor status, and T2DM status, and was parameterized by nationally-representative data. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence increased from 16.7% in 2012 to at least 24.0% by 2050. The rise in T2DM was most prominent among 45-54 years old. T2DM health expenditure was estimated to increase by 200-600% and to account for up to 32% of total health expenditure by 2050. Prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity was predicted to increase from 41.4% to 51.0%, from 16.4% to 19.4%, and from 45.9% to 53.0%, respectively. The proportion of T2DM incidence attributed to obesity, smoking and physical inactivity was estimated at 57.5%, 1.8%, and 5.4%, respectively in 2012, and 65.7%, 2.1%, and 6.0%, respectively in 2050. Exploring different scenarios for the trends in risk factors, T2DM prevalence reached up to 37.7% by 2050. CONCLUSIONS: Using our innovative approach, a rising T2DM epidemic is predicted to continue in the next decades, driven by population growth, ageing and adverse trends in risk factors. Obesity was the principal risk factor explaining two-thirds of T2DM incidence. T2DM must be a national priority addressed by preventive and therapeutic interventions targeting T2DM and its modifiable risk factors

Continuity Culture: A Key Factor for Building Resilience and Sound Recovery Capabilities

This article investigates the extent to which Jordanian service organizations seek to establish continuity culture through testing, training, and updating of their business continuity plans. A survey strategy was adopted in this research. Primary and secondary data were used. Semistructured interviews were conducted with five senior managers from five large Jordanian service organizations registered with the Amman Stock Exchange. The selection of organizations was made on the basis of simple random sampling. Interviews targeted the headquarters only in order to obtain a homogenous sample. Three out of five organizations could be regarded as crisis prepared and have better chances for recovery. The other two organizations exhibited characteristics of standard practice that only emphasizes the recovery aspect of business continuity management (BCM), while paying less attention to establishing resilient cultures and embedding BCM. The findings reveal that the ability to recover following major incidents can be improved by embedding BCM in the culture of the organization and by making BCM an enterprise-wide process. This is one of few meticulous studies that have been undertaken in the Middle East and the first in Jordan to investigate the extent to which service organizations focus on embedding BCM in the organizational culture

Hedgehog pathway mutations drive oncogenic transformation in high-risk T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

The role of Hedgehog signaling in normal and malignant T-cell development is controversial. Recently, Hedgehog pathway mutations have been described in T-ALL, but whether mutational activation of Hedgehog signaling drives T-cell transformation is unknown, hindering the rationale for therapeutic intervention. Here, we show that Hedgehog pathway mutations predict chemotherapy resistance in human T-ALL, and drive oncogenic transformation in a zebrafish model of the disease. We found Hedgehog pathway mutations in 16% of 109 childhood T-ALL cases, most commonly affecting its negative regulator PTCH1. Hedgehog mutations were associated with resistance to induction chemotherapy (P = 0.009). Transduction of wild-type PTCH1 into PTCH1-mutant T-ALL cells induced apoptosis (P = 0.005), a phenotype that was reversed by downstream Hedgehog pathway activation (P = 0.007). Transduction of most mutant PTCH1, SUFU, and GLI alleles into mammalian cells induced aberrant regulation of Hedgehog signaling, indicating that these mutations are pathogenic. Using a CRISPR/Cas9 system for lineage-restricted gene disruption in transgenic zebrafish, we found that ptch1 mutations accelerated the onset of notch1-induced T-ALL (P = 0.0001), and pharmacologic Hedgehog pathway inhibition had therapeutic activity. Thus, Hedgehog-activating mutations are driver oncogenic alterations in high-risk T-ALL, providing a molecular rationale for targeted therapy in this disease

Therapeutic opportunities within the DNA damage response

The DNA damage response (DDR) is essential for maintaining the genomic integrity of the cell, and its disruption is one of the hallmarks of cancer. Classically, defects in the DDR have been exploited therapeutically in the treatment of cancer with radiation therapies or genotoxic chemotherapies. More recently, protein components of the DDR systems have been identified as promising avenues for targeted cancer therapeutics. Here, we present an in-depth analysis of the function, role in cancer and therapeutic potential of 450 expert-curated human DDR genes. We discuss the DDR drugs that have been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) or that are under clinical investigation. We examine large-scale genomic and expression data for 15 cancers to identify deregulated components of the DDR, and we apply systematic computational analysis to identify DDR proteins that are amenable to modulation by small molecules, highlighting potential novel therapeutic targets

Co-designing Urban Living Solutions to Improve Older People’s Mobility and Well-Being

Mobility is a key aspect of active ageing enabling participation and autonomy into later life. Remaining active brings multiple physical but also social benefits leading to higher levels of well-being. With globally increasing levels of urbanisation alongside demographic shifts meaning in many parts of the world this urban population will be older people, the challenge is how cities should evolve to enable so-called active ageing. This paper reports on a co-design study with 117 participants investigating the interaction of existing urban spaces and infrastructure on mobility and well-being for older residents (aged 55 + years) in three cities. A mixed method approach was trialled to identify locations beneficial to subjective well-being and participant-led solutions to urban mobility challenges. Spatial analysis was used to identify key underlying factors in locations and infrastructure that promoted or compromised mobility and well-being for participants. Co-designed solutions were assessed for acceptability or co-benefits amongst a wider cross-section of urban residents (n = 233) using online and face-to-face surveys in each conurbation. Our analysis identified three critical intersecting and interacting thematic problems for urban mobility amongst older people: The quality of physical infrastructure; issues around the delivery, governance and quality of urban systems and services; and the attitudes and behaviors of individuals that older people encounter. This identified complexity reinforces the need for policy responses that may not necessarily involve design or retrofit measures, but instead might challenge perceptions and behaviors of use and access to urban space. Our co-design results further highlight that solutions need to move beyond the generic and placeless, instead embedding specific locally relevant solutions in inherently geographical spaces, populations and processes to ensure they relate to the intricacies of place

Joint effects of known type 2 diabetes susceptibility loci in genome-wide association study of Singapore Chinese: The Singapore Chinese health study

Background: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified genetic factors in type 2 diabetes (T2D), mostly among individuals of European ancestry. We tested whether previously identified T2D-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) replicate and whether SNPs in regions near known T2D SNPs were associated with T2D within the Singapore Chinese Health Study. Methods: 2338 cases and 2339 T2D controls from the Singapore Chinese Health Study were genotyped for 507,509 SNPs. Imputation extended the genotyped SNPs to 7,514,461 with high estimated certainty (r2>0.8). Replication of known index SNP associations in T2D was attempted. Risk scores were computed as the sum of index risk alleles. SNPs in regions ±100 kb around each index were tested for associations with T2D in conditional fine-mapping analysis. Results: Of 69 index SNPs, 20 were genotyped directly and genotypes at 35 others were well imputed. Among the 55 SNPs with data, disease associations were replicated (at p<0.05) for 15 SNPs, while 32 more were directionally consistent with previous reports. Risk score was a significant predictor with a 2.03 fold higher risk CI (1.69-2.44) of T2D comparing the highest to lowest quintile of risk allele burden (p = 5.72×10-14). Two improved SNPs around index rs10923931 and 5 new candidate SNPs around indices rs10965250 and rs1111875 passed simple Bonferroni corrections for significance in conditional analysis. Nonetheless, only a small fraction (2.3% on the disease liability scale) of T2D burden in Singapore is explained by these SNPs. Conclusions: While diabetes risk in Singapore Chinese involves genetic variants, most disease risk remains unexplained. Further genetic work is ongoing in the Singapore Chinese population to identify unique common variants not already seen in earlier studies. However rapid increases in T2D risk have occurred in recent decades in this population, indicating that dynamic environmental influences and possibly gene by environment interactions complicate the genetic architecture of this disease. © 2014 Chen et al

DNA repair, genome stability and cancer: a historical perspective

The multistep process of cancer progresses over many years. The prevention of mutations by DNA repair pathways led to an early appreciation of a role for repair in cancer avoidance. However, the broader role of the DNA damage response (DDR) emerged more slowly. In this Timeline article, we reflect on how our understanding of the steps leading to cancer developed, focusing on the role of the DDR. We also consider how our current knowledge can be exploited for cancer therapy

The variable influence of dispersant on degradation of oil hydrocarbons in subarctic deep-sea sediments at low temperatures (0-5 °C)

The microbial degradation of petroleum hydrocarbons at low temperatures was investigated in subarctic deep-sea sediments in th e Faroe Shetland Channel (FSC). The effect of the marine oil dispersant, Superdispersant 25 on hydrocarbon degradation was also examined. Sediments collected at 500 and 1000 m depth were spiked with a model oil containing 20 hydrocarbons and incubated at ambient temperature (5 and 0 °C, respectively) with and without marine dispersant. Treatment of sediments with hydrocarbons resulted in the enrichment of Gammaproteobacteria, and specifically the genera Pseudoalteromonas, Pseudomonas, Halomonas, and Cobetia. Hydrocarbon degradation was faster at 5 °C (500 m) with 65-89% of each component degraded after 50 days compared to 0-47% degradation at 0 °C (1000 m), where the aromatic hydrocarbons fluoranthene, anthracene, and Dibenzothiophene showed no degradation. Dispersant significantly increased the rate of degradation at 1000 m, but had no effect at 500 m. There was no statistically significant effect of Superdispersant 25 on the bacterial community structure at either station. These results show that the indigenous bacterial community in the FSC has the capacity to mitigate some of the effects of a potential oil spill, however, the effect of dispersant is ambiguous and further research is needed to understand the implications of its use

An Autonomous Wearable System for Predicting and Detecting Localised Muscle Fatigue

Muscle fatigue is an established area of research and various types of muscle fatigue have been clinically investigated in order to fully understand the condition. This paper demonstrates a non-invasive technique used to automate the fatigue detection and prediction process. The system utilises the clinical aspects such as kinematics and surface electromyography (sEMG) of an athlete during isometric contractions. Various signal analysis methods are used illustrating their applicability in real-time settings. This demonstrated system can be used in sports scenarios to promote muscle growth/performance or prevent injury. To date, research on localised muscle fatigue focuses on the clinical side and lacks the implementation for detecting/predicting localised muscle fatigue using an autonomous system. Results show that automating the process of localised muscle fatigue detection/prediction is promising. The autonomous fatigue system was tested on five individuals showing 90.37% accuracy on average of correct classification and an error of 4.35% in predicting the time to when fatigue will onset