Daily volume, intraday and overnight returns for volatility prediction: profitability or accuracy?

This article presents a comprehensive analysis of the relative ability of three information sets—daily trading volume, intraday returns and overnight returns—to predict equity volatility. We investigate the extent to which statistical accuracy of one-day-ahead forecasts translates into economic gains for technical traders. Various profitability criteria and utility-based switching fees indicate that the largest gains stem from combining historical daily returns with volume information. Using common statistical loss functions, the largest degree of predictive power is found instead in intraday returns. Our analysis thus reinforces the view that statistical significance does not have a direct mapping onto economic value. As a byproduct, we show that buying the stock when the forecasted volatility is extremely high appears largely profitable, suggesting a strong return-risk relationship in turbulent conditions

Volatility forecasting in the Chinese commodity futures market with intraday data

Given the unique institutional regulations in the Chinese commodity futures market as well as the characteristics of the data it generates, we utilize contracts with three months to delivery, the most liquid contract series, to systematically explore volatility forecasting for aluminum, copper, fuel oil, and sugar at the daily and three intraday sampling frequencies. We adopt popular volatility models in the literature and assess the forecasts obtained via these models against alternative proxies for the true volatility. Our results suggest that the long memory property is an essential feature in the commodity futures volatility dynamics and that the ARFIMA model consistently produces the best forecasts or forecasts not inferior to the best in statistical terms

Replicating viral vector platform exploits alarmin signals for potent CD8⁺ T cell-mediated tumour immunotherapy.

Viral infections lead to alarmin release and elicit potent cytotoxic effector T lymphocyte (CTL <sup>eff</sup> ) responses. Conversely, the induction of protective tumour-specific CTL <sup>eff</sup> and their recruitment into the tumour remain challenging tasks. Here we show that lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) can be engineered to serve as a replication competent, stably-attenuated immunotherapy vector (artLCMV). artLCMV delivers tumour-associated antigens to dendritic cells for efficient CTL priming. Unlike replication-deficient vectors, artLCMV targets also lymphoid tissue stroma cells expressing the alarmin interleukin-33. By triggering interleukin-33 signals, artLCMV elicits CTL <sup>eff</sup> responses of higher magnitude and functionality than those induced by replication-deficient vectors. Superior anti-tumour efficacy of artLCMV immunotherapy depends on interleukin-33 signalling, and a massive CTL <sup>eff</sup> influx triggers an inflammatory conversion of the tumour microenvironment. Our observations suggest that replicating viral delivery systems can release alarmins for improved anti-tumour efficacy. These mechanistic insights may outweigh safety concerns around replicating viral vectors in cancer immunotherapy

Кинетика восстановления железа при восстановительной плавке рудоугольных окатышей

Исследовано влияние интенсивности теплообмена на кинетику восстановления железа в процессе плавки рудоугольных окатышей. Показано, что с ростом интенсивности теплообмена повышается скорость восстановительных процессов. Вследствие роста коэффициента теплообмена увеличивается глубина восстановленного слоя окатыша, существенно изменяются его структура и химический состав образующейся металлической фазы.Досліджено вплив інтенсивності теплообміну на кінетику відновлення заліза в процесі плавки рудовугільних окатишів. Показано, що при зростанні інтенсивності теплообміну підвищується швидкість відновлювальних процесів. Внаслідок зростання коефіцієнту теплообміну збільшується глибина відновленого шару окатиша, суттєво змінюються його структура та хімічний склад металевої фази, що утворюється.Influence of intensity of heat exchange is investigational on kinetics reduction of iron in the process of melting ore-coal pellets. It is rotined that speed of reduction processes rises with growth of intensity of heat exchange. Because of growth of coefficient of heat exchange the depth of the recovered layer of pellet is increased, his structure and chemical composition of appearing metallic phase changes substantially

Immune response of healthy horses to DNA constructs formulated with a cationic lipid transfection reagent

Background Deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) vaccines are used for experimental immunotherapy of equine melanoma. The injection of complexed linear DNA encoding interleukin (IL)-12/IL-18 induced partial tumour remission in a clinical study including 27 grey horses. To date, the detailed mechanism of the anti-tumour effect of this treatment is unknown. Results In the present study, the clinical and cellular responses of 24 healthy horses were monitored over 72 h after simultaneous intradermal and intramuscular application of equine IL-12/IL-18 DNA (complexed with a transfection reagent) or comparative substances (transfection reagent only, nonsense DNA, nonsense DNA depleted of CG). Although the strongest effect was observed in horses treated with expressing DNA, horses in all groups treated with DNA showed systemic responses. In these horses treated with DNA, rectal temperatures were elevated after treatment and serum amyloid A increased. Total leukocyte and neutrophil counts increased, while lymphocyte numbers decreased. The secretion of tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFα) and interferon gamma (IFNγ) from peripheral mononuclear blood cells ex vivo increased after treatments with DNA, while IL-10 secretion decreased. Horses treated with DNA had significantly higher myeloid cell numbers and chemokine (C-X-C motif) ligand (CXCL)-10 expression in skin samples at the intradermal injection sites compared to horses treated with transfection reagent only, suggesting an inflammatory response to DNA treatment. In horses treated with expressing DNA, however, local CXCL-10 expression was highest and immunohistochemistry revealed more intradermal IL-12-positive cells when compared to the other treatment groups. In contrast to non-grey horses, grey horses showed fewer effects of DNA treatments on blood lymphocyte counts, TNFα secretion and myeloid cell infiltration in the dermis. Conclusion Treatment with complexed linear DNA constructs induced an inflammatory response independent of the coding sequence and of CG motif content. Expressing IL-12/IL-18 DNA locally induces expression of the downstream mediator CXCL-10. The grey horses included appeared to display an attenuated immune response to DNA treatment, although grey horses bearing melanoma responded to this treatment with moderate tumour remission in a preceding study. Whether the different immunological reactivity compared to other horses may contributes to the melanoma susceptibility of grey horses remains to be elucidated

High-throughput assay for determining enantiomeric excess of chiral diols, amino alcohols, and amines and for direct asymmetric reaction screening

Determining enantiomeric excess (e.e.) in chiral compounds is key to development of chiral catalyst auxiliaries and chiral drugs. Here we describe a sensitive and robust fluorescence-based assay for determining e.e. in mixtures of enantiomers of 1,2- and 1,3-diols, chiral amines, amino alcohols, and amino-acid esters. The method is based on dynamic self-assembly of commercially available chiral amines, 2-formylphenylboronic acid, and chiral diols in acetonitrile to form fluorescent diastereomeric complexes. Each analyte enantiomer engenders a diastereomer with distinct fluorescence wavelength/intensity originating from enantiopure fluorescent ligands. In this assay, enantiomers of amines and amine derivatives assemble with diol-type ligands containing a binaphthol moiety (BINOL and VANOL), whereas diol enantiomers form complexes with the enantiopure amine-type fluorescent ligand tryptophanol. The differential fluorescence is utilized to determine the amount of each enantiomer in the mixture with an error of &lt;1% e.e. This method enables high-throughput real-time evaluation of enantiomeric/diastereomeric excess (e.e./d.e.) and product yield of crude asymmetric reaction products. The procedure comprises high-throughput liquid dispensing of three components into 384-well plates and recording of fluorescence using an automated plate reader. The approach enables scaling up the screening of combinatorial libraries and, together with parallel synthesis, creates a robust platform for discovering chiral catalysts or auxiliaries for asymmetric transformations and chiral drug development. The procedure takes ~4–6 h and requires 10–20 ng of substrate per well. Our fluorescence-based assay offers distinct advantages over existing methods because it is not sensitive to the presence of common additives/impurities or unreacted/incompletely utilized reagents or catalysts.</p

Preventing violence by intimate partners in adolescence: an integrative review

Abstract OBJECTIVE To analyze the scientific literature on preventing intimate partner violence among adolescents in the field of health based on gender and generational categories. METHOD This was an integrative review. We searched for articles using LILACS, PubMed/MEDLINE, and SciELO databases. RESULTS Thirty articles were selected. The results indicate that most studies assessed interventions conducted by programs for intimate partner violence prevention. These studies adopted quantitative methods, and most were in the area of nursing, psychology, and medicine. Furthermore, most research contexts involved schools, followed by households, a hospital, a health center, and an indigenous tribe. CONCLUSION The analyses were not conducted from a gender- and generation-based perspective. Instead, the scientific literature was based on positivist research models, intimately connected to the classic public healthcare model and centered on a singular dimension

Expectations, perceptions, and physiotherapy predict prolonged sick leave in subacute low back pain

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Brief intervention programs for subacute low back pain (LBP) result in significant reduction of sick leave compared to treatment as usual. Although effective, a substantial proportion of the patients do not return to work. This study investigates predictors of return to work in LBP patients participating in a randomized controlled trial comparing a brief intervention program (BI) with BI and physical exercise.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Predictors for not returning to work was examined in 246 patients sick listed 8-12 weeks for low back pain. The patients had participated in a randomized controlled trial, with BI (n = 122) and BI + physical exercise (n = 124). There were no significant differences between the two intervention groups on return to work. The groups were therefore merged in the analyses of predictors. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictors for non return to work at 3, 12, and 24 months of follow-up.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>At 3 months of follow-up, the strongest predictors for not returning to work were pain intensity while resting (OR = 5.6; CI = 1.7-19), the perception of constant back strain when working (OR = 4.1; CI = 1.5-12), negative expectations for return to work (OR = 4.2; CI = 1.7-10), and having been to a physiotherapist prior to participation in the trial (OR = 3.3; CI = 1.3-8.3). At 12 months, perceived reduced ability to walk far due to the complaints (OR = 2.6; CI = 1.3-5.4), pain during activities (OR = 2.4; CI = 1.1-5.1), and having been to a physiotherapist prior to participation in the trial (OR = 2.1; CI = 1.1-4.3) were the strongest predictors for non return to work. At 24 months age below 41 years (OR = 2.9; CI = 1.4-6.0) was the only significant predictor for non return to work.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>It appears that return to work is highly dependant on individual and cognitive factors. Patients not returning to work after the interventions were characterized by negative expectations, perceptions about pain and disability, and previous physiotherapy treatment. This is the first study reporting that previous treatment by physiotherapists is a risk factor for long-term sick leave. This has not been reported before and is an interesting finding that deserves more scrutiny.</p

Clinical experience with integrase inhibitors in HIV-2-infected individuals in Spain.

Background: HIV-2 is a neglected virus despite estimates of 1–2 million people being infected worldwide. The virus is naturally resistant to some antiretrovirals used to treat HIV-1 and therapeutic options are limited for patients with HIV-2. Methods: In this retrospective observational study, we analysed all HIV-2-infected individuals treated with inte- grase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs) recorded in the Spanish HIV-2 cohort. Demographics, treatment modal- ities, laboratory values, quantitative HIV-2 RNA and CD4 counts as well as drug resistance were analysed. Results: From a total of 354 HIV-2-infected patients recruited by the Spanish HIV-2 cohort as of December 2017, INSTIs had been given to 44, in 18 as first-line therapy and in 26 after failing other antiretroviral regimens. After a median follow-up of 13 months of INSTI-based therapy, undetectable viraemia for HIV-2 was achieved in 89% of treatment-naive and in 65.4% of treatment-experienced patients. In parallel, CD4 gains were 82 and 126cells/mm3, respectively. Treatment failure occurred in 15 patients, 2 being treatment-naive and 13 treatment-experienced. INSTI resistance changes were recognized in 12 patients: N155H (5), Q148H/R (3), Y143C/G (3) and R263K (1). Conclusions: Combinations based on INSTIs are effective and safe treatment options for HIV-2-infected individ- uals. However, resistance mutations to INSTIs are selected frequently in failing patients, reducing the already limited treatment options

Professional development and sustainable development goals

Professional development is defined as a consciously designed systematic process that helps professionals to attain, utilize, and retain knowledge, skills, and expertise. It is simply a process of obtaining skills, qualifications, and experience that help in advancement in one’s career. In the field of education, it is defined as the process of improving staff skills and competencies needed to produce outstanding performance of students. It also refers to a process of improving an organization’s staff capabilities through access to education and training opportunities for better output. Professional development can include a variety of approaches such as formal and informal education, vocational, specialized, or skill-based training, or advanced professional learning