Prediction of solar energetic events impacting space weather conditions

Aiming to assess the progress and current challenges on the formidable problem of the prediction of solar energetic events since the COSPAR/ International Living With a Star (ILWS) Roadmap paper of Schrijver et al. (2015), we attempt an overview of the current status of global research efforts. By solar energetic events we refer to flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and solar energetic particle (SEP) events. The emphasis, therefore, is on the prediction methods of solar flares and eruptions, as well as their associated SEP manifestations. This work complements the COSPAR International Space Weather Action Teams (ISWAT) review paper on the understanding of solar eruptions by Linton et al. (2023) (hereafter, ISWAT review papers are conventionally referred to as ’Cluster’ papers, given the ISWAT structure). Understanding solar flares and eruptions as instabilities occurring above the nominal background of solar activity is a core solar physics problem. We show that effectively predicting them stands on two pillars: physics and statistics. With statistical methods appearing at an increasing pace over the last 40 years, the last two decades have brought the critical realization that data science needs to be involved, as well, as volumes of diverse ground- and space-based data give rise to a Big Data landscape that cannot be handled, let alone processed, with conventional statistics. Dimensionality reduction in immense parameter spaces with the dual aim of both interpreting and forecasting solar energetic events has brought artificial intelligence (AI) methodologies, in variants of machine and deep learning, developed particularly for tackling Big Data problems. With interdisciplinarity firmly present, we outline an envisioned framework on which statistical and AI methodologies should be verified in terms of performance and validated against each other. We emphasize that a homogenized and streamlined method validation is another open challenge. The performance of the plethora of methods is typically far from perfect, with physical reasons to blame, besides practical shortcomings: imperfect data, data gaps and a lack of multiple, and meaningful, vantage points of solar observations. We briefly discuss these issues, too, that shape our desired short- and long-term objectives for an efficient future predictive capability. A central aim of this article is to trigger meaningful, targeted discussions that will compel the community to adopt standards for performance verification and validation, which could be maintained and enriched by institutions such as NASA's Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and the community-driven COSPAR/ISWAT initiative

Fusion of the MR image to SPECT with possible correction for partial volume effect.

ABSTRACT—Low spatial resolution and the related partial volume effects limit the diagnostic potential of brain single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) imaging. As a possible remedy for this problem we propose a technique for the fusion of SPECT and MR images, which requires for a given patient the SPECT data and the T1-weighted MR image. Basically, after the reconstruction and coregistration steps, the high-frequency part of the MR, which would be unrecoverable by the set SPECT acquisition system + reconstruction algorithm, is extracted and added to the SPECT image. The tuning of the weight of the MR on the resulting fused image can be performed very quickly, any iterative reconstruction algorithm can be used and, in the case that the SPECT projections are not available, the proposed technique can also be applied directly to the SPECT image, provided that the performance of the scanner is known. The procedure has the potential of increasing the diagnostic value of a SPECT image. Even in the locations of SPECT-MR mismatch it does not significantly affect quantitation over regions of interest (ROIs) whose dimensions are decidedly larger than the SPECT resolution distance. On the other hand, appreciable corrections for partial volume effects are expected in the locations where the contrast in the structural MR matches the corresponding contrast in functional activity