Universality, limits and predictability of gold-medal performances at the Olympic Games

Inspired by the Games held in ancient Greece, modern Olympics represent the world's largest pageant of athletic skill and competitive spirit. Performances of athletes at the Olympic Games mirror, since 1896, human potentialities in sports, and thus provide an optimal source of information for studying the evolution of sport achievements and predicting the limits that athletes can reach. Unfortunately, the models introduced so far for the description of athlete performances at the Olympics are either sophisticated or unrealistic, and more importantly, do not provide a unified theory for sport performances. Here, we address this issue by showing that relative performance improvements of medal winners at the Olympics are normally distributed, implying that the evolution of performance values can be described in good approximation as an exponential approach to an a priori unknown limiting performance value. This law holds for all specialties in athletics-including running, jumping, and throwing-and swimming. We present a self-consistent method, based on normality hypothesis testing, able to predict limiting performance values in all specialties. We further quantify the most likely years in which athletes will breach challenging performance walls in running, jumping, throwing, and swimming events, as well as the probability that new world records will be established at the next edition of the Olympic Games.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, 1 table. Supporting information files and data are available at filrad.homelinux.or

Extending the applicability of the dose addition model to the assessment of chemical mixtures of partial agonists by using a novel toxic unit extrapolation method

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Dose addition, a commonly used concept in toxicology for the prediction of chemical mixture effects, cannot readily be applied to mixtures of partial agonists with differing maximal effects. Due to its mathematical features, effect levels that exceed the maximal effect of the least efficacious compound present in the mixture, cannot be calculated. This poses problems when dealing with mixtures likely to be encountered in realistic assessment situations where chemicals often show differing maximal effects. To overcome this limitation, we developed a pragmatic solution that extrapolates the toxic units of partial agonists to effect levels beyond their maximal efficacy. We extrapolated different additivity expectations that reflect theoretically possible extremes and validated this approach with a mixture of 21 estrogenic chemicals in the E-Screen. This assay measures the proliferation of human epithelial breast cancers. We found that the dose-response curves of the estrogenic agents exhibited widely varying shapes, slopes and maximal effects, which made it necessary to extrapolate mixture responses above 14% proliferation. Our toxic unit extrapolation approach predicted all mixture responses accurately. It extends the applicability of dose addition to combinations of agents with differing saturating effects and removes an important bottleneck that has severely hampered the use of dose addition in the past. © 2014 Scholze et al

Saliency Benchmarking Made Easy: Separating Models, Maps and Metrics

Dozens of new models on fixation prediction are published every year and compared on open benchmarks such as MIT300 and LSUN. However, progress in the field can be difficult to judge because models are compared using a variety of inconsistent metrics. Here we show that no single saliency map can perform well under all metrics. Instead, we propose a principled approach to solve the benchmarking problem by separating the notions of saliency models, maps and metrics. Inspired by Bayesian decision theory, we define a saliency model to be a probabilistic model of fixation density prediction and a saliency map to be a metric-specific prediction derived from the model density which maximizes the expected performance on that metric given the model density. We derive these optimal saliency maps for the most commonly used saliency metrics (AUC, sAUC, NSS, CC, SIM, KL-Div) and show that they can be computed analytically or approximated with high precision. We show that this leads to consistent rankings in all metrics and avoids the penalties of using one saliency map for all metrics. Our method allows researchers to have their model compete on many different metrics with state-of-the-art in those metrics: "good" models will perform well in all metrics.Comment: published at ECCV 201

Combustion in thermonuclear supernova explosions

Type Ia supernovae are associated with thermonuclear explosions of white dwarf stars. Combustion processes convert material in nuclear reactions and release the energy required to explode the stars. At the same time, they produce the radioactive species that power radiation and give rise to the formation of the observables. Therefore, the physical mechanism of the combustion processes, as reviewed here, is the key to understand these astrophysical events. Theory establishes two distinct modes of propagation for combustion fronts: subsonic deflagrations and supersonic detonations. Both are assumed to play an important role in thermonuclear supernovae. The physical nature and theoretical models of deflagrations and detonations are discussed together with numerical implementations. A particular challenge arises due to the wide range of spatial scales involved in these phenomena. Neither the combustion waves nor their interaction with fluid flow and instabilities can be directly resolved in simulations. Substantial modeling effort is required to consistently capture such effects and the corresponding techniques are discussed in detail. They form the basis of modern multidimensional hydrodynamical simulations of thermonuclear supernova explosions. The problem of deflagration-to-detonation transitions in thermonuclear supernova explosions is briefly mentioned.Comment: Author version of chapter for 'Handbook of Supernovae,' edited by A. Alsabti and P. Murdin, Springer. 24 pages, 4 figure

Cross modal perception of body size in domestic dogs (Canis familiaris)

While the perception of size-related acoustic variation in animal vocalisations is well documented, little attention has been given to how this information might be integrated with corresponding visual information. Using a cross-modal design, we tested the ability of domestic dogs to match growls resynthesised to be typical of either a large or a small dog to size- matched models. Subjects looked at the size-matched model significantly more often and for a significantly longer duration than at the incorrect model, showing that they have the ability to relate information about body size from the acoustic domain to the appropriate visual category. Our study suggests that the perceptual and cognitive mechanisms at the basis of size assessment in mammals have a multisensory nature, and calls for further investigations of the multimodal processing of size information across animal species

Discovery of Sexual Dimorphisms in Metabolic and Genetic Biomarkers

Metabolomic profiling and the integration of whole-genome genetic association data has proven to be a powerful tool to comprehensively explore gene regulatory networks and to investigate the effects of genetic variation at the molecular level. Serum metabolite concentrations allow a direct readout of biological processes, and association of specific metabolomic signatures with complex diseases such as Alzheimer's disease and cardiovascular and metabolic disorders has been shown. There are well-known correlations between sex and the incidence, prevalence, age of onset, symptoms, and severity of a disease, as well as the reaction to drugs. However, most of the studies published so far did not consider the role of sexual dimorphism and did not analyse their data stratified by gender. This study investigated sex-specific differences of serum metabolite concentrations and their underlying genetic determination. For discovery and replication we used more than 3,300 independent individuals from KORA F3 and F4 with metabolite measurements of 131 metabolites, including amino acids, phosphatidylcholines, sphingomyelins, acylcarnitines, and C6-sugars. A linear regression approach revealed significant concentration differences between males and females for 102 out of 131 metabolites (p-values<3.8 x 10(-4); Bonferroni-corrected threshold). Sex-specific genome-wide association studies (GWAS) showed genome-wide significant differences in beta-estimates for SNPs in the CPS1 locus (carbamoyl-phosphate synthase 1, significance level: p<3.8 x 10(-10); Bonferroni-corrected threshold) for glycine. We showed that the metabolite profiles of males and females are significantly different and, furthermore, that specific genetic variants in metabolism-related genes depict sexual dimorphism. Our study provides new important insights into sex-specific differences of cell regulatory processes and underscores that studies should consider sex-specific effects in design and interpretation

Clinical implications of having reduced mid forced expiratory flow rates (FEF25-75), independently of FEV1, in adult patients with asthma

INTRODUCTION:FEF25-75 is one of the standard results provided in spirometry reports; however, in adult asthmatics there is limited information on how this physiological measure relates to clinical or biological outcomes independently of the FEV1 or the FEV1/FVC ratio. PURPOSE:To determine the association between Hankinson's percent-predicted FEF25-75 (FEF25-75%) levels with changes in healthcare utilization, respiratory symptom frequency, and biomarkers of distal airway inflammation. METHODS:In participants enrolled in the Severe Asthma Research Program 1-2, we compared outcomes across FEF25-75% quartiles. Multivariable analyses were done to avoid confounding by demographic characteristics, FEV1, and the FEV1/FVC ratio. In a sensitivity analysis, we also compared outcomes across participants with FEF25-75% below the lower limit of normal (LLN) and FEV1/FVC above LLN. RESULTS:Subjects in the lowest FEF25-75% quartile had greater rates of healthcare utilization and higher exhaled nitric oxide and sputum eosinophils. In multivariable analysis, being in the lowest FEF25-75% quartile remained significantly associated with nocturnal symptoms (OR 3.0 [95%CI 1.3-6.9]), persistent symptoms (OR 3.3 [95%CI 1-11], ICU admission for asthma (3.7 [1.3-10.8]) and blood eosinophil % (0.18 [0.07, 0.29]). In the sensitivity analysis, those with FEF25-75% <LLN had significantly more nocturnal and persistent symptoms, emergency room visits, higher serum eosinophil levels and increased methacholine responsiveness. CONCLUSIONS:After controlling for demographic variables, FEV1 and FEV1/FVC, a reduced FEF25-75% is independently associated with previous ICU admission, persistent symptoms, nocturnal symptoms, blood eosinophilia and bronchial hyperreactivity. This suggests that in some asthmatics, a reduced FEF25-75% is an independent biomarker for more severe asthma

A new method to quantify and compare the multiple components of fitness-A study case with kelp niche partition by divergent microstage adaptations to Temperature

Point 1 Management of crops, commercialized or protected species, plagues or life-cycle evolution are subjects requiring comparisons among different demographic strategies. The simpler methods fail in relating changes in vital rates with changes in population viability whereas more complex methods lack accuracy by neglecting interactions among vital rates. Point 2 The difference between the fitness (evaluated by the population growth rate.) of two alternative demographies is decomposed into the contributions of the differences between the pair-wised vital rates and their interactions. This is achieved through a full Taylor expansion (i.e. remainder = 0) of the demographic model. The significance of each term is determined by permutation tests under the null hypothesis that all demographies come from the same pool. Point 3 An example is given with periodic demographic matrices of the microscopic haploid phase of two kelp cryptic species observed to partition their niche occupation along the Chilean coast. The method provided clear and synthetic results showing conditional differentiation of reproduction is an important driver for their differences in fitness along the latitudinal temperature gradient. But it also demonstrated that interactions among vital rates cannot be neglected as they compose a significant part of the differences between demographies. Point 4 This method allows researchers to access the effects of multiple effective changes in a life-cycle from only two experiments. Evolutionists can determine with confidence the effective causes for changes in fitness whereas population managers can determine best strategies from simpler experimental designs.CONICYT-FRENCH EMBASSADY Ph.D. gran