Hot Streaks in Artistic, Cultural, and Scientific Careers

The hot streak, loosely defined as winning begets more winnings, highlights a specific period during which an individual's performance is substantially higher than her typical performance. While widely debated in sports, gambling, and financial markets over the past several decades, little is known if hot streaks apply to individual careers. Here, building on rich literature on lifecycle of creativity, we collected large-scale career histories of individual artists, movie directors and scientists, tracing the artworks, movies, and scientific publications they produced. We find that, across all three domains, hit works within a career show a high degree of temporal regularity, each career being characterized by bursts of high-impact works occurring in sequence. We demonstrate that these observations can be explained by a simple hot-streak model we developed, allowing us to probe quantitatively the hot streak phenomenon governing individual careers, which we find to be remarkably universal across diverse domains we analyzed: The hot streaks are ubiquitous yet unique across different careers. While the vast majority of individuals have at least one hot streak, hot streaks are most likely to occur only once. The hot streak emerges randomly within an individual's sequence of works, is temporally localized, and is unassociated with any detectable change in productivity. We show that, since works produced during hot streaks garner significantly more impact, the uncovered hot streaks fundamentally drives the collective impact of an individual, ignoring which leads us to systematically over- or under-estimate the future impact of a career. These results not only deepen our quantitative understanding of patterns governing individual ingenuity and success, they may also have implications for decisions and policies involving predicting and nurturing individuals with lasting impact

Exponential Random Graph Modeling for Complex Brain Networks

Exponential random graph models (ERGMs), also known as p* models, have been utilized extensively in the social science literature to study complex networks and how their global structure depends on underlying structural components. However, the literature on their use in biological networks (especially brain networks) has remained sparse. Descriptive models based on a specific feature of the graph (clustering coefficient, degree distribution, etc.) have dominated connectivity research in neuroscience. Corresponding generative models have been developed to reproduce one of these features. However, the complexity inherent in whole-brain network data necessitates the development and use of tools that allow the systematic exploration of several features simultaneously and how they interact to form the global network architecture. ERGMs provide a statistically principled approach to the assessment of how a set of interacting local brain network features gives rise to the global structure. We illustrate the utility of ERGMs for modeling, analyzing, and simulating complex whole-brain networks with network data from normal subjects. We also provide a foundation for the selection of important local features through the implementation and assessment of three selection approaches: a traditional p-value based backward selection approach, an information criterion approach (AIC), and a graphical goodness of fit (GOF) approach. The graphical GOF approach serves as the best method given the scientific interest in being able to capture and reproduce the structure of fitted brain networks

Wide-Scale Analysis of Human Functional Transcription Factor Binding Reveals a Strong Bias towards the Transcription Start Site

We introduce a novel method to screen the promoters of a set of genes with shared biological function, against a precompiled library of motifs, and find those motifs which are statistically over-represented in the gene set. The gene sets were obtained from the functional Gene Ontology (GO) classification; for each set and motif we optimized the sequence similarity score threshold, independently for every location window (measured with respect to the TSS), taking into account the location dependent nucleotide heterogeneity along the promoters of the target genes. We performed a high throughput analysis, searching the promoters (from 200bp downstream to 1000bp upstream the TSS), of more than 8000 human and 23,000 mouse genes, for 134 functional Gene Ontology classes and for 412 known DNA motifs. When combined with binding site and location conservation between human and mouse, the method identifies with high probability functional binding sites that regulate groups of biologically related genes. We found many location-sensitive functional binding events and showed that they clustered close to the TSS. Our method and findings were put to several experimental tests. By allowing a "flexible" threshold and combining our functional class and location specific search method with conservation between human and mouse, we are able to identify reliably functional TF binding sites. This is an essential step towards constructing regulatory networks and elucidating the design principles that govern transcriptional regulation of expression. The promoter region proximal to the TSS appears to be of central importance for regulation of transcription in human and mouse, just as it is in bacteria and yeast.Comment: 31 pages, including Supplementary Information and figure

Anti-Allergic Cromones Inhibit Histamine and Eicosanoid Release from Activated Human and Murine Mast Cells by Releasing Annexin A1

PMCID: PMC3601088This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Intermediate predator naïveté and sex-skewed vulnerability predict the impact of an invasive higher predator

The spread of invasive species continues to reduce biodiversity across all regions and habitat types globally. However, invader impact prediction can be nebulous, and approaches often fail to integrate coupled direct and indirect invader effects. Here, we examine the ecological impacts of an invasive higher predator on lower trophic groups, further developing methodologies to more holistically quantify invader impact. We employ functional response (FR, resource use under different densities) and prey switching experiments to examine the trait- and density-mediated impacts of the invasive mosquitofish Gambusia affinis on an endemic intermediate predator Lovenula raynerae (Copepoda). Lovenula raynerae effectively consumed larval mosquitoes, but was naïve to mosquitofish cues, with attack rates and handling times of the intermediate predator unaffected by mosquitofish cue-treated water. Mosquitofish did not switch between male and female prey, consistently displaying a strong preference for female copepods. We thus demonstrate a lack of risk-reduction activity in the presence of invasive fish by L. raynerae and, in turn, high susceptibility of such intermediate trophic groups to invader impact. Further, we show that mosquitofish demonstrate sex-skewed predator selectivity towards intermediate predators of mosquito larvae, which may affect predator population demographics and, perversely, increase disease vector proliferations. We advocate the utility of FRs and prey switching combined to holistically quantify invasive species impact potential on native organisms at multiple trophic levels

Does Presentation Format Influence Visual Size Discrimination in Tufted Capuchin Monkeys (Sapajus spp.)?

Most experimental paradigms to study visual cognition in humans and non-human species are based on discrimination tasks involving the choice between two or more visual stimuli. To this end, different types of stimuli and procedures for stimuli presentation are used, which highlights the necessity to compare data obtained with different methods. The present study assessed whether, and to what extent, capuchin monkeys\u27 ability to solve a size discrimination problem is influenced by the type of procedure used to present the problem. Capuchins\u27 ability to generalise knowledge across different tasks was also evaluated. We trained eight adult tufted capuchin monkeys to select the larger of two stimuli of the same shape and different sizes by using pairs of food items (Experiment 1), computer images (Experiment 1) and objects (Experiment 2). Our results indicated that monkeys achieved the learning criterion faster with food stimuli compared to both images and objects. They also required consistently fewer trials with objects than with images. Moreover, female capuchins had higher levels of acquisition accuracy with food stimuli than with images. Finally, capuchins did not immediately transfer the solution of the problem acquired in one task condition to the other conditions. Overall, these findings suggest that - even in relatively simple visual discrimination problems where a single perceptual dimension (i.e., size) has to be judged - learning speed strongly depends on the mode of presentation

Design of the Resistance and Endurance exercise After ChemoTherapy (REACT) study: A randomized controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of exercise interventions after chemotherapy on physical fitness and fatigue

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Preliminary studies suggest that physical exercise interventions can improve physical fitness, fatigue and quality of life in cancer patients after completion of chemotherapy. Additional research is needed to rigorously test the effects of exercise programmes among cancer patients and to determine optimal training intensity accordingly. The present paper presents the design of a randomized controlled trial evaluating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a high intensity exercise programme compared to a low-to-moderate intensity exercise programme and a waiting list control group on physical fitness and fatigue as primary outcomes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>After baseline measurements, cancer patients who completed chemotherapy are randomly assigned to either a 12-week high intensity exercise programme or a low-to-moderate intensity exercise programme. Next, patients from both groups are randomly assigned to immediate training or a waiting list (i.e. waiting list control group). After 12 weeks, patients of the waiting list control group start with the exercise programme they have been allocated to.</p> <p>Both interventions consist of equal bouts of resistance and endurance interval exercises with the same frequency and duration, but differ in training intensity. Additionally, patients of both exercise programmes are counselled to improve compliance and achieve and maintain an active lifestyle, tailored to their individual preferences and capabilities.</p> <p>Measurements will be performed at baseline (t = 0), 12 weeks after randomization (t = 1), and 64 weeks after randomization (t = 2). The primary outcome measures are cardiorespiratory fitness and muscle strength assessed by means of objective performance indicators, and self-reported fatigue. Secondary outcome measures include health-related quality of life, self-reported physical activity, daily functioning, body composition, mood and sleep disturbances, and return to work. In addition, compliance and satisfaction with the interventions will be evaluated. Potential moderation by pre- and post-illness lifestyle, health and exercise-related attitudes, beliefs and motivation will also be assessed. Finally, the cost-effectiveness of both exercise interventions will be evaluated.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This randomized controlled trial will be a rigorous test of effects of exercise programmes for cancer patients after chemotherapy, aiming to contribute to evidence-based practice in cancer rehabilitation programmes.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>This study is registered at the Netherlands Trial Register (NTR2153)</p

Effects of High-Intensity Interval Training versus Continuous Training on Physical Fitness, Cardiovascular Function and Quality of Life in Heart Failure Patients

Introduction Physical fitness is an important prognostic factor in heart failure (HF). To improve fitness, different types of exercise have been explored, with recent focus on high-intensity interval training (HIT). We comprehensively compared effects of HIT versus continuous training (CT) in HF patients NYHA II-III on physical fitness, cardiovascular function and structure, and quality of life, and hypothesize that HIT leads to superior improvements compared to CT. Methods Twenty HF patients (male:female 19:1, 64±8 yrs, ejection fraction 38±6%) were allocated to 12-weeks of HIT (10*1-minute at 90% maximal workload—alternated by 2.5 minutes at 30% maximal workload) or CT (30 minutes at 60–75% of maximal workload). Before and after intervention, we examined physical fitness (incremental cycling test), cardiac function and structure (echocardiography), vascular function and structure (ultrasound) and quality of life (SF-36, Minnesota living with HF questionnaire (MLHFQ)). Results Training improved maximal workload, peak oxygen uptake (VO2peak) related to the predicted VO2peak, oxygen uptake at the anaerobic threshold, and maximal oxygen pulse (all P<0.05), whilst no differences were present between HIT and CT (N.S.). We found no major changes in resting cardiovascular function and structure. SF-36 physical function score improved after training (P<0.05), whilst SF-36 total score and MLHFQ did not change after training (N.S.). Conclusion Training induced significant improvements in parameters of physical fitness, although no evidence for superiority of HIT over CT was demonstrated. No major effect of training was found on cardiovascular structure and function or quality of life in HF patients NYHA II-III

Facilitative parenting and children's social, emotional and behavioural adjustment

Facilitative parenting (FP) supports the development of children’s social and emotional competence and effective peer relationships. Previous research has shown that FP discriminates between children bullied by peers from children who are not bullied, according to reports of teachers. This study investigates the association between FP and children’s social, emotional and behavioral problems, over and above the association with dysfunctional parenting (DP). 215 parents of children aged 5–11 years completed questionnaires about parenting and child behavior, and children and teachers completed measures of child bullying victimization. As predicted, FP accounted for variance in teacher reports of children’s bullying victimization as well as parent reports of children’s social and emotional problems and prosocial behavior better than that accounted for by DP. However for children’s reports of peer victimization the whole-scale DP was a better predictor than FP. Contrary to predictions, FP accounted for variance in conduct problems and hyperactivity better than DP. When analyses were replicated substituting subscales of dysfunctional and FP, a sub-set of FP subscales including Warmth, Supports Friendships, Not Conflicting, Child Communicates and Coaches were correlated with low levels of problems on a broad range of children’s adjustment problems. Parent–child conflict accounted for unique variance in children’s peer victimization (teacher report), peer problems, depression, emotional problems, conduct problems and hyperactivity. The potential relevance of FP as a protective factor for children against a wide range of adjustment problems is discussed

Exploring African lion (Panthera leo) behavioural phenotypes: individual differences and correlations between sociality, boldness and behaviour

Increasing our understanding of personality, at an individual and group level, is crucial to the pre-release assessment of social species within ex situ reintroduction programs. We conducted the first exploration into the personality of a captive-origin pride of African lions (Panthera leo), assessing behavioural variations and consistencies in daily activity, social and hunting behaviour, and boldness. Data were collected via direct observations, while a species-specific protocol for testing boldness, using playbacks, was developed. Differences in sex, age and session time for the activity budget were evaluated using Pearson correlations and repeated-measures ANOVA, while social interactions were analysed using social network analysis. Spearman’s correlations were conducted to assess for associations between boldness scores, activity and sociality. The two boldness tests provided a range of scores per lion, indicating that the test was effective. Correlations and variations in individual behaviour indicated that adults and sub-adults have specific roles within pride behaviour. Correlations between boldness and activity and social behaviours provided information on the role of individuals, allowing investigation into the behaviour of a dominant and a social keystone. Our study indicates that evaluating various aspects of behaviour in conjunction with boldness has the potential to assist the pre-release assessment of a pride within an ex situ reintroduction program.The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10164-016-0473-