Physician supply forecast: better than peering in a crystal ball?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Anticipating physician supply to tackle future health challenges is a crucial but complex task for policy planners. A number of forecasting tools are available, but the methods, advantages and shortcomings of such tools are not straightforward and not always well appraised. Therefore this paper had two objectives: to present a typology of existing forecasting approaches and to analyse the methodology-related issues.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A literature review was carried out in electronic databases Medline-Ovid, Embase and ERIC. Concrete examples of planning experiences in various countries were analysed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Four main forecasting approaches were identified. The supply projection approach defines the necessary inflow to maintain or to reach in the future an arbitrary predefined level of service offer. The demand-based approach estimates the quantity of health care services used by the population in the future to project physician requirements. The needs-based approach involves defining and predicting health care deficits so that they can be addressed by an adequate workforce. Benchmarking health systems with similar populations and health profiles is the last approach. These different methods can be combined to perform a gap analysis. The methodological challenges of such projections are numerous: most often static models are used and their uncertainty is not assessed; valid and comprehensive data to feed into the models are often lacking; and a rapidly evolving environment affects the likelihood of projection scenarios. As a result, the internal and external validity of the projections included in our review appeared limited.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>There is no single accepted approach to forecasting physician requirements. The value of projections lies in their utility in identifying the current and emerging trends to which policy-makers need to respond. A genuine gap analysis, an effective monitoring of key parameters and comprehensive workforce planning are key elements to improving the usefulness of physician supply projections.</p

Marketing of rural and remote pharmacy practice via the digital medium

The shortage of community and hospital pharmacists is particularly acute in rural and remote areas of Australia. Pharmacy students, in particular, as those who may be able to alleviate this shortage, need to be made more aware of the challenges and rewards of rural pharmacy practice. A marketing tool was developed to promote rural and remote pharmacy practice as a career option. A DVD was produced from interviews with health professionals working in rural and remote areas of Australia. This DVD will complement current rural practical placements, which have been incorporated into the curriculum of Australian schools of pharmacy. Interviews were conducted with healthcare professionals from areas in Tasmania, Northern Queensland and the Northern Territory. Interviewees included pharmacists, graduate pharmacists, pharmacy students, aboriginal health workers and a general practitioner. Each of the interviewees was able to provide personal accounts of experiences in rural and remote healthcare, and roles and opportunities for pharmacists. A final draft of the DVD was shown to University of Tasmania students to assess the impact and quality of the production. A number of common themes arose from interviewing and these were subsequently converted into five key chapters of the DVD – Lifestyle, Belonging, Diversity, Indigenous Health and ‘Give it a go’. The final DVD, produced from over 15 h of footage, runs for 35 min. Students reported positive feedback on both the technical quality and the information contained within the DVD; 37% of students who viewed the DVD felt that it increased their awareness of what rural pharmacy has to offer. The rural pharmacy, ‘Enjoy the Lifestyle’ DVD can be used to increase awareness of rural and remote pharmacy practice to students and other pharmacists, and complements other pharmacy workforce strategies for rural and remote areas of Australia. It could also be a useful approach for adaptation in other countries

The Rural Clinical School Tracking Project: More IS better - Confirming factors that influence early career entry into the rural medical workforce

Introduction: This longitudinal tracking project by the University of Queensland Rural Clinical School (UQRCS) provides data on the early career pathways of alumni since its inception in 2002. Specifically we report on; (1) perceptions of the UQRCS regarding its influence on current career choice, (2) current speciality choices, and (3) factors that influenced these choices