Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

Wnt/β-catenin Signalling Is Active in a Highly Dynamic Pattern during Development of the Mouse Cerebellum

The adult cerebellum is composed of several distinct cell types with well defined developmental origins. However, the molecular mechanisms that govern the generation of these cell types are only partially resolved. Wnt/β-catenin signalling has a wide variety of roles in generation of the central nervous system, though the specific activity of this pathway during cerebellum development is not well understood. Here, we present data that delineate the spatio-temporal specific pattern of Wnt/β-catenin signaling during mouse cerebellum development between E12.5 and P21. Using the BAT-gal Wnt/β-catenin reporter mouse, we found that Wnt/β-catenin activity is present transiently at the embryonic rhombic lip but not at later stages during the expansion of cell populations that arise from there. At late embryonic and early postnatal stages, Wnt/β-catenin activity shifts to the cerebellar ventricular zone and to cells arising from this germinal centre. Subsequently, the expression pattern becomes progressively restricted to Bergmann glial cells, which show expression of the reporter at P21. These results indicate a variety of potential functions for Wnt/β-catenin activity during cerebellum development