Indian summer monsoon onset forecast skill in the UK Met Office initialized coupled seasonal forecasting system (GloSea5-GC2)

Accurate and precise forecasting of the Indian monsoon is important for the socio-economic security of India, with improvements in agriculture and associated sectors from prediction of the monsoon onset. In this study we establish the skill of the UK Met Office coupled initialized global seasonal forecasting system, GloSea5-GC2, in forecasting Indian monsoon onset. We build on previous work that has demonstrated the good skill of GloSea5 at forecasting interannual variations of the seasonal mean Indian monsoon using measures of large-scale circulation and local precipitation. We analyze the summer hindcasts from a set of three springtime start-dates in late April/early May for the 20-year hindcast period (1992-2011). The hindcast set features at least fifteen ensemble members for each year and is analyzed using five different objective monsoon indices. These indices are designed to examine large and local-scale measures of the monsoon circulation, hydrological changes, tropospheric temperature gradient, or rainfall for single value (area-averaged) or grid-point measures of the Indian monsoon onset. There is significant correlation between onset dates in the model and those found in reanalysis. Indices based on large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic indices are better at estimating monsoon onset in the model rather than local-scale dynamical and hydrological indices. This can be attributed to the model's better representation of large-scale dynamics compared to local-scale features. GloSea5 may not be able to predict the exact date of monsoon onset over India, but this study shows that the model has a good ability at predicting category-wise monsoon onset, using early, normal or late tercile categories. Using a grid-point local rainfall onset index, we note that the forecast skill is highest over parts of central India, the Gangetic plains, and parts of coastal India - all zones of extensive agriculture in India. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing in the model improves the forecast skill of monsoon onset when using a large-scale circulation index, with late monsoon onset coinciding with El Niño conditions and early monsoon onset more common in La Niña years. The results of this study suggest that GloSea5's ensemble-mean forecast may be used for reliable Indian monsoon onset prediction a month in advance despite systematic model errors

A new family of diprotodontian marsupials from the latest Oligocene of Australia and the evolution of wombats, koalas, and their relatives (Vombatiformes)

We describe the partial cranium and skeleton of a new diprotodontian marsupial from the late Oligocene (~26–25 Ma) Namba Formation of South Australia. This is one of the oldest Australian marsupial fossils known from an associated skeleton and it reveals previously unsuspected morphological diversity within Vombatiformes, the clade that includes wombats (Vombatidae), koalas (Phascolarctidae) and several extinct families. Several aspects of the skull and teeth of the new taxon, which we refer to a new family, are intermediate between members of the fossil family Wynyardiidae and wombats. Its postcranial skeleton exhibits features associated with scratch-digging, but it is unlikely to have been a true burrower. Body mass estimates based on postcranial dimensions range between 143 and 171 kg, suggesting that it was ~5 times larger than living wombats. Phylogenetic analysis based on 79 craniodental and 20 postcranial characters places the new taxon as sister to vombatids, with which it forms the superfamily Vombatoidea as defined here. It suggests that the highly derived vombatids evolved from wynyardiid-like ancestors, and that scratch-digging adaptations evolved in vombatoids prior to the appearance of the ever-growing (hypselodont) molars that are a characteristic feature of all post-Miocene vombatids. Ancestral state reconstructions on our preferred phylogeny suggest that bunolophodont molars are plesiomorphic for vombatiforms, with full lophodonty (characteristic of diprotodontoids) evolving from a selenodont morphology that was retained by phascolarctids and ilariids, and wynyardiids and vombatoids retaining an intermediate selenolophodont condition. There appear to have been at least six independent acquisitions of very large (>100 kg) body size within Vombatiformes, several having already occurred by the late Oligocene

European newts establish in Australia, marking the arrival of a new amphibian order

We document the successful establishment of a European newt (Lissotriton vulgaris) in south-eastern Australia, the first recorded case of a caudate species establishing beyond its native geographic range in the southern hemisphere. Field surveys in south-eastern Australia detected L. vulgaris at six sites, including four sites where the species had been detected 15 months earlier. Larvae were detected at three sites. Individuals had identical NADH dehydrogenase subunit 2 and cytb mtDNA gene sequences, and comparisons with genetic data from the species' native range suggest that these individuals belong to the nominal subspecies L. v. vulgaris. Climatic conditions across much of southern Australia are similar to those experienced within the species' native range, suggesting scope for substantial range expansion. Lissotriton vulgaris had been available in the Australian pet trade for decades before it was declared a 'controlled pest animal' in 1997, and thus the invasion documented here likely originated via the release or escape of captive animals. Lissotriton vulgaris is the sole member of an entire taxonomic order to have established in Australia, and given the potential toxicity of this species, further work is needed to delimit its current range and identify potential biodiversity impacts. © 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

A systematic review of the impacts and management of introduced deer (family Cervidae) in Australia

Deer are among the world's most successful invasive mammals and can have substantial deleterious impacts on natural and agricultural ecosystems. Six species have established wild populations in Australia, and the distributions and abundances of some species are increasing. Approaches to managing wild deer in Australia are diverse and complex, with some populations managed as 'game' and others as 'pests'. Implementation of cost-effective management strategies that account for this complexity is hindered by a lack of knowledge of the nature, extent and severity of deer impacts. To clarify the knowledge base and identify research needs, we conducted a systematic review of the impacts and management of wild deer in Australia. Most wild deer are in south-eastern Australia, but bioclimatic analysis suggested that four species are well suited to the tropical and subtropical climates of northern Australia. Deer could potentially occupy most of the continent, including parts of the arid interior. The most significant impacts are likely to occur through direct effects of herbivory, with potentially cascading indirect effects on fauna and ecosystem processes. However, evidence of impacts in Australia is largely observational, and few studies have experimentally partitioned the impacts of deer from those of sympatric native and other introduced herbivores. Furthermore, there has been little rigorous testing of the efficacy of deer management in Australia, and our understanding of the deer ecology required to guide deer management is limited. We identified the following six priority research areas: (i) identifying long-term changes in plant communities caused by deer; (ii) understanding interactions with other fauna; (iii) measuring impacts on water quality; (iv) assessing economic impacts on agriculture (including as disease vectors); (v) evaluating efficacy of management for mitigating deer impacts; and (vi) quantifying changes in distribution and abundance. Addressing these knowledge gaps will assist the development and prioritisation of cost-effective management strategies and help increase stakeholder support for managing the impacts of deer on Australian ecosystems

Assessing the economic benefits of starling detection and control to Western Australia

© 2015 Environment Institute of Australia and New Zealand Inc. The common starling (Sturnus vulgaris) has a proven invasion history in many countries, and at a continental scale in North America and Australasia. In Australia, starlings are firmly established throughout the eastern states and Tasmania. Incursions of starlings into Western Australia (WA) represent a significant threat to this State’s agricultural, public amenity and biodiversity assets. We present models of starling population dynamics that incorporate environmental and control effort variability. We incorporate knowledge of starling ecology with economic data to assess the potential economic cost of starlings establishing in WA, evaluating the cost–benefits for each management scenario. We calculated starling population size will approach carrying capacity in WA within as little as 30 years if left unchecked. A population of this size could cost the WA economy up to $43.7 million annually in 2011/2012 dollars. Over a 50 year horizon, the conservative benefit–cost ratio for ongoing detection and control at the current level of expenditure is 6.03:1. However, even under current levels of control, starling numbers are projected to increase to almost 11 million by 2061. Further improvements in the efficiency of starling detection and control and/or an increased level of expenditure on detection and control are required