Tuberculosis incidence correlates with sunshine : an ecological 28-year time series study

Birmingham is the largest UK city after London, and central Birmingham has an annual tuberculosis incidence of 80 per 100,000. We examined seasonality and sunlight as drivers of tuberculosis incidence. Hours of sunshine are seasonal, sunshine exposure is necessary for the production of vitamin D by the body and vitamin D plays a role in the host response to tuberculosis. Methods: We performed an ecological study that examined tuberculosis incidence in Birmingham from Dec 1981 to Nov 2009, using publicly-available data from statutory tuberculosis notifications, and related this to the seasons and hours of sunshine (UK Meteorological Office data) using unmeasured component models. Results: There were 9,739 tuberculosis cases over the study period. There was strong evidence for seasonality, with notifications being 24.1% higher in summer than winter (p<0.001). Winter dips in sunshine correlated with peaks in tuberculosis incidence six months later (4.7% increase in incidence for each 100 hours decrease in sunshine, p<0.001). Discussion and Conclusion: A potential mechanism for these associations includes decreased vitamin D levels with consequent impaired host defence arising from reduced sunshine exposure in winter. This is the longest time series of any published study and our use of statutory notifications means this data is essentially complete. We cannot, however, exclude the possibility that another factor closely correlated with the seasons, other than sunshine, is responsible. Furthermore, exposure to sunlight depends not only on total hours of sunshine but also on multiple individual factors. Our results should therefore be considered hypothesis-generating. Confirmation of a potential causal relationship between winter vitamin D deficiency and summer peaks in tuberculosis incidence would require a randomized-controlled trial of the effect of vitamin D supplementation on future tuberculosis incidence

Terminus-driven retreat of a major southwest Greenland tidewater glacier during the early 19th century : insights from glacier reconstructions and numerical modelling

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

A comparison of transgenic rodent mutation and in vivo comet assay responses for 91 chemicals.

A database of 91 chemicals with published data from both transgenic rodent mutation (TGR) and rodent comet assays has been compiled. The objective was to compare the sensitivity of the two assays for detecting genotoxicity. Critical aspects of study design and results were tabulated for each dataset. There were fewer datasets from rats than mice, particularly for the TGR assay, and therefore, results from both species were combined for further analysis. TGR and comet responses were compared in liver and bone marrow (the most commonly studied tissues), and in stomach and colon evaluated either separately or in combination with other GI tract segments. Overall positive, negative, or equivocal test results were assessed for each chemical across the tissues examined in the TGR and comet assays using two approaches: 1) overall calls based on weight of evidence (WoE) and expert judgement, and 2) curation of the data based on a priori acceptability criteria prior to deriving final tissue specific calls. Since the database contains a high prevalence of positive results, overall agreement between the assays was determined using statistics adjusted for prevalence (using AC1 and PABAK). These coefficients showed fair or moderate to good agreement for liver and the GI tract (predominantly stomach and colon data) using WoE, reduced agreement for stomach and colon evaluated separately using data curation, and poor or no agreement for bone marrow using both the WoE and data curation approaches. Confidence in these results is higher for liver than for the other tissues, for which there were less data. Our analysis finds that comet and TGR generally identify the same compounds (mainly potent mutagens) as genotoxic in liver, stomach and colon, but not in bone marrow. However, the current database content precluded drawing assay concordance conclusions for weak mutagens and non-DNA reactive chemicals

Epidemic space

The aim of this article is to highlight the importance of 'spatiality' in understanding the materialization of risk society and cultivation of risk sensibilities. More specifically it provides a cultural analysis of pathogen virulence (as a social phenomenon) by means of tracing and mapping the spatial flows that operate in the uncharted zones between the microphysics of infection and the macrophysics of epidemics. It will be argued that epidemic space consists of three types of forces: the vector, the index and the vortex. It will draw on Latour's Actor Network Theory to argue that epidemic space is geared towards instability when the vortex (of expanding associations and concerns) displaces the index (of finding a single cause)

Membrane Sigma-Models and Quantization of Non-Geometric Flux Backgrounds

We develop quantization techniques for describing the nonassociative geometry probed by closed strings in flat non-geometric R-flux backgrounds M. Starting from a suitable Courant sigma-model on an open membrane with target space M, regarded as a topological sector of closed string dynamics in R-space, we derive a twisted Poisson sigma-model on the boundary of the membrane whose target space is the cotangent bundle T^*M and whose quasi-Poisson structure coincides with those previously proposed. We argue that from the membrane perspective the path integral over multivalued closed string fields in Q-space is equivalent to integrating over open strings in R-space. The corresponding boundary correlation functions reproduce Kontsevich's deformation quantization formula for the twisted Poisson manifolds. For constant R-flux, we derive closed formulas for the corresponding nonassociative star product and its associator, and compare them with previous proposals for a 3-product of fields on R-space. We develop various versions of the Seiberg-Witten map which relate our nonassociative star products to associative ones and add fluctuations to the R-flux background. We show that the Kontsevich formula coincides with the star product obtained by quantizing the dual of a Lie 2-algebra via convolution in an integrating Lie 2-group associated to the T-dual doubled geometry, and hence clarify the relation to the twisted convolution products for topological nonassociative torus bundles. We further demonstrate how our approach leads to a consistent quantization of Nambu-Poisson 3-brackets.Comment: 52 pages; v2: references adde

Is Our Universe Natural?

It goes without saying that we are stuck with the universe we have. Nevertheless, we would like to go beyond simply describing our observed universe, and try to understand why it is that way rather than some other way. Physicists and cosmologists have been exploring increasingly ambitious ideas that attempt to explain why certain features of our universe aren't as surprising as they might first appear.Comment: Invited review for Nature, 11 page

Off-Diagonal Deformations of Kerr Metrics and Black Ellipsoids in Heterotic Supergravity

Geometric methods for constructing exact solutions of motion equations with first order $\alpha ^{\prime}$ corrections to the heterotic supergravity action implying a non-trivial Yang-Mills sector and six dimensional, 6-d, almost-K\"ahler internal spaces are studied. In 10-d spacetimes, general parametrizations for generic off-diagonal metrics, nonlinear and linear connections and matter sources, when the equations of motion decouple in very general forms are considered. This allows us to construct a variety of exact solutions when the coefficients of fundamental geometric/physical objects depend on all higher dimensional spacetime coordinates via corresponding classes of generating and integration functions, generalized effective sources and integration constants. Such generalized solutions are determined by generic off-diagonal metrics and nonlinear and/or linear connections. In particular, as configurations which are warped/compactified to lower dimensions and for Levi-Civita connections. The corresponding metrics can have (non) Killing and/or Lie algebra symmetries and/or describe (1+2)-d and/or (1+3)-d domain wall configurations, with possible warping nearly almost-K\"ahler manifolds, with gravitational and gauge instantons for nonlinear vacuum configurations and effective polarizations of cosmological and interaction constants encoding string gravity effects. A series of examples of exact solutions describing generic off-diagonal supergravity modifications to black hole/ ellipsoid and solitonic configurations are provided and analyzed. We prove that it is possible to reproduce the Kerr and other type black solutions in general relativity (with certain types of string corrections) in 4-d and to generalize the solutions to non-vacuum configurations in (super) gravity/ string theories.Comment: latex2e, 44 pages with table of content, v2 accepted to EJPC with minor typos modifications requested by editor and referee and up-dated reference

Contact Manifolds, Contact Instantons, and Twistor Geometry

Recently, Kallen and Zabzine computed the partition function of a twisted supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory on the five-dimensional sphere using localisation techniques. Key to their construction is a five-dimensional generalisation of the instanton equation to which they refer as the contact instanton equation. Subject of this article is the twistor construction of this equation when formulated on K-contact manifolds and the discussion of its integrability properties. We also present certain extensions to higher dimensions and supersymmetric generalisations.Comment: v3: 28 pages, clarifications and references added, version to appear in JHE

Mapping of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Complex Genetic Diversity Profiles in Tanzania and Other African Countries

The aim of this study was to assess and characterize Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) genotypic diversity in Tanzania, as well as in neighbouring East and other several African countries. We used spoligotyping to identify a total of 293 M. tuberculosis clinical isolates (one isolate per patient) collected in the Bunda, Dar es Salaam, Ngorongoro and Serengeti areas in Tanzania. The results were compared with results in the SITVIT2 international database of the Pasteur Institute of Guadeloupe. Genotyping and phylogeographical analyses highlighted the predominance of the CAS, T, EAI, and LAM MTBC lineages in Tanzania. The three most frequent Spoligotype International Types (SITs) were: SIT21/CAS1-Kili (n = 76; 25.94%), SIT59/LAM11-ZWE (n = 22; 7.51%), and SIT126/EAI5 tentatively reclassified as EAI3-TZA (n = 18; 6.14%). Furthermore, three SITs were newly created in this study (SIT4056/EAI5 n = 2, SIT4057/T1 n = 1, and SIT4058/EAI5 n = 1). We noted that the East-African-Indian (EAI) lineage was more predominant in Bunda, the Manu lineage was more common among strains isolated in Ngorongoro, and the Central-Asian (CAS) lineage was more predominant in Dar es Salaam (p-value<0.0001). No statistically significant differences were noted when comparing HIV status of patients vs. major lineages (p-value = 0.103). However, when grouping lineages as Principal Genetic Groups (PGG), we noticed that PGG2/3 group (Haarlem, LAM, S, T, and X) was more associated with HIV-positive patients as compared to PGG1 group (Beijing, CAS, EAI, and Manu) (p-value = 0.03). This study provided mapping of MTBC genetic diversity in Tanzania (containing information on isolates from different cities) and neighbouring East African and other several African countries highlighting differences as regards to MTBC genotypic distribution between Tanzania and other African countries. This work also allowed underlining of spoligotyping patterns tentatively grouped within the newly designated EAI3-TZA lineage (remarkable by absence of spacers 2 and 3, and represented by SIT126) which seems to be specific to Tanzania. However, further genotyping information would be needed to confirm this specificity