Australian east coast mid-latitude cyclones in the 20th Century Reanalysis ensemble

Extratropical and subtropical cyclones, and their associated fronts, produce the majority of rainfall and extreme weather in the mid-latitudes around the world. In the Southern Hemisphere in particular, where observations are sparse, we have limited knowledge of their long-term variability and trends. While the long time period of the 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR) offers potential to assess longer-term changes, the lack of observational data sets makes it difficult to assess its reliability. We assess the skill of the 20CR at representing mid-latitude cyclones through a case study on the east coast of Australia. In this region, a comprehensive database has recently been developed of all severe floods between 1871 and 2012, of which >70% are associated with a coastal low-pressure system. Through use of the full 20CR 56-member ensemble, we are able to identify the majority of severe Australian east coast lows as early as the late 19th century, as well as recreate the cyclone tracks for some of the most severe events. The analysis shows that the full ensemble can be used for a long-term assessment of interannual variability in cyclone frequency from at least 1911, despite large inhomogeneities in the ensemble mean pressure fields

The influence of topography on midlatitude cyclones on Australia's east coast

The east coast of Australia has a relatively high frequency of midlatitude cyclones, locally known as East Coast Lows (ECLs), which can cause severe weather including widespread flooding and coastal erosion. The elevated topography close to the east coast has been hypothesized to play a role in both the genesis and impacts of cyclones in this region, but existing studies have been limited to case studies of individual events. In this paper we present the results from two 20 year simulations over the Australian region using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and assess the results from removing all topography in the region on both mean atmospheric circulation and ECL frequency. Removing topography results in an increase in sea level pressure to the south of Australia and an increase in moisture flux convergence and rainfall near the east coast, as well as a decrease in potential vorticity to the north of the ECL region. This results in a change in the spatial distribution of cyclones, with a 37% decrease in the frequency of cyclones that develop to the south of the ECL region but a 20% increase in cyclones near the east coast. This results in little overall change in the frequency of ECLs and suggests that coarse topography is unlikely to be responsible for the difficulties in simulating coastal cyclones in global climate models

Impact of identification method on the inferred characteristics and variability of Australian east coast lows

The Australian east coast low (ECL) is both a major cause of damaging severe weather and an important contributor to rainfall and dam inflowalong the east coast, and is of interest to a wide range of groups including catchment managers and emergency services. For this reason, several studies in recent years have developed and interrogated databases of east coast lows using a variety of automated cyclone detection methods and identification criteria. This paper retunes each method so that all yield a similar event frequency within the ECL region, to enable a detailed intercomparison of the similarities, differences, and relative advantages of each method. All methods are shown to have substantial skill at identifying ECL events leading to major impacts or explosive development, but the choice of method significantly affects both the seasonal and interannual variation of detected ECL numbers. This must be taken into consideration in studies on trends or variability in ECLs, with a subcategorization of ECL events by synoptic situation of key importance

Depressive symptoms from kindergarten to early school age: Longitudinal associations with social skills deficits and peer victimization

Background: Depressive symptoms in children are associated with social skills deficits and problems with peers. We propose a model which suggests different mechanisms for the impact of deficits in self-oriented social skills (assertiveness and social participation) and other-oriented social skills (pro-social, cooperative and non-aggressive behaviors) on children's depressive symptoms. We hypothesized that deficits in self-oriented social skills have a direct impact on children's depressive symptoms because these children have non-rewarding interactions with peers, whereas the impact of deficits in other-oriented social skills on depressive symptoms is mediated through negative reactions from peers such as peer victimization. Method: 378 kindergarten children (163 girls) participated at two assessments (Age at T1: M = 5.8, T2: M = 7.4). Teachers completed questionnaires on children's social skills at T1. Teacher reports on peer victimization and depressive symptoms were assessed at both assessment points. Results: Our study partially confirmed the suggested conceptual model. Deficits in self-oriented social skills significantly predicted depressive symptoms, whereas deficits in other-oriented social skills were more strongly associated with peer victimization. Longitudinal associations between other-oriented social skills and depressive symptoms were mediated through peer victimization. Conclusion: The study emphasizes the role of deficits in self-oriented social skills and peer victimization for the development of internalizing disorders

Dynamics and predictability of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation: an Australian perspective on progress and challenges

El Niño and La Niña, the warm and cold phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), cause significant year-to-year disruptions in global climate including in the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere. Australia is one of the countries where its climate, including droughts and flooding rains, is highly sensitive to the temporal and spatial variations of ENSO. The dramatic impacts of ENSO on the environment, society, health, and economies worldwide make the application of reliable ENSO predictions a powerful way to manage risks and resources. An improved understanding of ENSO dynamics in a changing climate has the potential to lead to more accurate and reliable ENSO predictions by facilitating improved forecast systems. This motivated an Australian national workshop on ENSO dynamics and prediction that was held in Sydney, Australia, in November 2017. This workshop followed the aftermath of the 2015/16 extreme El Niño which exhibited different characteristics to previous extreme El Niños and whose early evolution since 2014 was challenging to predict. This essay summarizes the collective workshop perspective on recent progress and challenges in understanding ENSO dynamics and predictability, and improving forecast systems. While this essay discusses key issues from an Australian perspective, many of the same issues are important for other ENSO-affected countries, and for the international ENSO research community