MEDEAS: a new modeling framework integrating global biophysical and socioeconomic constraints

Producción CientíficaA diversity of integrated assessment models (IAMs) coexists due to the different approaches developed to deal with the complex interactions, high uncertainties and knowledge gaps within the environment and human societies. This paper describes the open-source MEDEAS modeling framework, which has been developed with the aim of informing decision-making to achieve the transition to sustainable energy systems with a focus on biophysical, economic, social and technological restrictions and tackling some of the limitations identified in the current IAMs. MEDEAS models include the following relevant characteristics: representation of biophysical constraints to energy availability; modeling of the mineral and energy investments for the energy transition, allowing a dynamic assessment of the potential mineral scarcities and computation of the net energy available to society; consistent representation of climate change damages with climate assessments by natural scientists; integration of detailed sectoral economic structure (input–output analysis) within a system dynamics approach; energy shifts driven by physical scarcity; and a rich set of socioeconomic and environmental impact indicators. The potentialities and novel insights that this framework brings are illustrated by the simulation of four variants of current trends with the MEDEAS-world model: the consideration of alternative plausible assumptions and methods, combined with the feedback-rich structure of the model, reveal dynamics and implications absent in classical models. Our results suggest that the continuation of current trends will drive significant biophysical scarcities and impacts which will most likely derive in regionalization (priority to security concerns and trade barriers), conflict, and ultimately, a severe global crisis which may lead to the collapse of our modern civilization. Despite depicting a much more worrying future than conventional projections of current trends, we however believe it is a more realistic counterfactual scenario that will allow the design of improved alternative sustainable pathways in future work.Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (Project CO2017-85110-R)Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (Project JCI-2016–28833)MEDEAS project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon2020 research and innovation programme under grant agree-ment no. 691287.LOCOMOTION project, funded by the EuropeanUnion’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement no. 82110

Fossil Fuels, Let’s Leave Them under Earth. Four Reasons to Vote “Yes” at the Italian Referendum on Drilling

The referendum that will be held on 17 April 2016 is calling Italians to express their willingness on an aspect of licensing the sea drilling activities: The end of the licenses to the offshore exploitation of fossil fuel resources within the 12 miles from the coast

Fossil Fuels, Let’s Leave Them under Earth. Four Reasons to Vote “Yes” at the Italian Referendum on Drilling

The referendum that will be held on 17 April 2016 is calling Italians to express their willingness on an aspect of licensing the sea drilling activities: The end of the licenses to the offshore exploitation of fossil fuel resources within the 12 miles from the coast

Daytime Sleepiness, Apnea, Neuroimaging Correlates and Cortisol Dysregulation in a Memory Clinic Cohort

BackgroundSleep disturbances as well as cortisol hypersecretion are increasingly acknowledged as risk factors for Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, the mechanisms underlying the association, and the interplay with cortisol abnormalities, remain unclear.ObjectivesThis study aims to identify how self-reported sleep disturbances are associated with structural brain measures and diurnal cortisol dysregulation among memory clinic patients.DesignA cross-sectional study performed at Karolinska University Hospital Memory Clinic, Sweden.ParticipantsThe study was based on 146 memory clinic patients diagnosed with either subjective cognitive impairment or mild cognitive impairment.MeasurementsSelf-reported sleep was measured using the Karolinska Sleep Questionnaire. MRI or CT was used to quantify structural brain measures using four visual rating scales (Scheltens, Pasquier, Koedam, and Fazekas scales), and salivary cortisol was sampled to measure diurnal cortisol patterns through measures of cortisol immediately after awakening, cortisol awakening response, bedtime cortisol, total cortisol from awakening to bedtime, and the AM/PM cortisol ratio.ResultsIncreased sleep apnea index (OR=1.20, 95% CI=1.04:1.39, p=0.015) was associated with greater odds of posterior brain atrophy, measured by the Koedam visual rating scale, and reduced awakening Cortisol (beta=-0.03, 95% CI=- 0.07:0.00, p=0.045). Increased daytime sleepiness was associated with both reduced awakening cortisol (beta=-0.03, 95% CI=-0.06:0.00, p=0.025) and a reduced AM/PM cortisol ratio (beta=-0.04, CI=-0.08:-0.01, p= 0.021).ConclusionIn a memory clinic cohort self-reported sleep disturbances are associated with both worse structural brain tissue integrity and altered diurnal cortisol profiles. These findings may add insights into possible mechanisms behind sleep disturbances in aging with subjective and cognitive impairment.</p

Influence of forest decline on the abundance and diversity of Raphidioptera and Mecoptera species dwelling in oak canopies

International audienceTrees in a state of decline exhibit a reduced foliage density and accumulate dead branches in their crowns. Consequently, forest decline can markedly affect both the habitats and sources of food for canopy-dwelling insects. The decline-induced increase in canopy openness may also modify the understory, shrub and ground layers, and have cascading effects on associated species. Flight interception traps and green Lindgren traps were used to survey the canopy-dwelling insects in stands of healthy and declining oak trees, in particular two insect orders: Raphidioptera, saproxylic insects associated with canopies, and Mecoptera, necrophagous or opportunistic species associated with the herbaceous or shrub strata. Overall, green Lindgren traps caught more of these insects than flight interception traps. The traps caught five species of Raphidioptera. Three of them, Subilla confinis, Phaeostigma major and, to a lesser extent, Phaeostigma notata, were more abundant in stands or plots with declining trees. However, the other two species of Raphidioptera, Atlantoraphidia maculicollis and Xanthostigma xanthostigma exhibited a reverse trend. Two species of Mecoptera, Panorpa germanica and Panorpa communis, were particularly abundant, but unaffected by the level of decline. Our results show that declining forests can either host more or fewer species of Raphidioptera with saproxylic larvae, whereas Mecoptera with ground-living larvae were unaffected. Seasonal phenology and sex ratio of the species are also discussed