Snapshot Provisioning of Cloud Application Stacks to Face Traffic Surges

Traffic surges, like the Slashdot effect, occur when a web application is overloaded by a huge number of requests, potentially leading to unavailability. Unfortunately, such traffic variations are generally totally unplanned, of great amplitude, within a very short period, and a variable delay to return to a normal regime. In this report, we introduce PeakForecast as an elastic middleware solution to detect and absorb a traffic surge. In particular, PeakForecast can, from a trace of queries received in the last seconds, minutes or hours, to detect if the underlying system is facing a traffic surge or not, and then estimate the future traffic using a forecast model with an acceptable precision, thereby calculating the number of resources required to absorb the remaining traffic to come. We validate our solution by experimental results demonstrating that it can provide instantaneous elasticity of resources for traffic surges observed on the Japanese version of Wikipedia during the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in March 2011.Les pics de trafic, tels que l'effet Slashdot, apparaissent lorsqu'une application web doit faire face un nombre important de requêtes qui peut potentiellement entraîner une mise hors service de l'application. Malheureusement, de telles variations de traffic sont en général totalement imprévues et d'une grande amplitude, arrivent pendant une très courte période de temps et le retour à un régime normal prend un délai variable. Dans ce rapport, nous présentons PeakForecast qui est une solution intergicielle élastique pour détecter et absorber les pics de trafic. En particulier, PeakForecast peut, à partir des traces de requêtes reçues dans les dernières secondes, minutes ou heures, détecter si le système sous-jacent fait face ou non à un pic de trafic, estimer le trafic futur en utilisant un modèle de prédiction suffisamment précis, et calculer le nombre de ressources nécessaires à l'absorption du trafic restant à venir. Nous validons notre solution avec des résultats expérimentaux qui démontrent qu'elle fournit une élasticité instantanée des ressources pour des pics de trafic qui ont été observés sur la version japonaise de Wikipedia lors de l'accident nucléaire de Fukushima Daiichi en mars 2011

Anxiety: An Evolutionary Approach

Anxiety disorders are among the most common mental illnesses, with huge attendant suffering. Current treatments are not universally effective, suggesting that a deeper understanding of the causes of anxiety is needed. To understand anxiety disorders better, it is first necessary to understand the normal anxiety response. This entails considering its evolutionary function as well as the mechanisms underlying it. We argue that the function of the human anxiety response, and homologues in other species, is to prepare the individual to detect and deal with threats. We use a signal detection framework to show that the threshold for expressing the anxiety response ought to vary with the probability of threats occurring, and the individual's vulnerability to them if they do occur. These predictions are consistent with major patterns in the epidemiology of anxiety. Implications for research and treatment are discussed

Efficacy of an intensive outpatient rehabilitation program in alcoholism: Predictors of outcome 6 months after treatment

Treatment of alcohol-dependent patients was primarily focused on inpatient settings in the past decades. The efficacy of these treatment programs has been evaluated in several studies and proven to be sufficient. However, with regard to the increasing costs in public healthcare systems, questions about alternative treatment strategies have been raised. Meanwhile, there is growing evidence that outpatient treatment might be comparably effective as inpatient treatment, at least for subgroups of alcohol dependents. On that background, the present study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of a high-structured outpatient treatment program in 103 alcohol-dependent patients. 74 patients (72%) terminated the outpatient treatment regularly. At 6 months' follow-up, 95% patients were successfully located and personally re-interviewed. Analyses revealed that 65 patients (64%) were abstinent at the 6-month follow-up evaluation and 37 patients ( 36%) were judged to be non-abstinent. Pretreatment variables which were found to have a negative impact (non-abstinence) on the 6-month outcome after treatment were a higher severity of alcohol dependence measured by a longer duration of alcohol dependence, a higher number of prior treatments and a stronger alcohol craving (measured by the Obsessive Compulsive Drinking Scale). Further patients with a higher degree of psychopathology measured by the Beck Depression Inventory (depression) and State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (anxiety) relapsed more often. In summary, results of this study indicate a favorable outcome of socially stable alcohol-dependent patients and patients with a lower degree of depression, anxiety and craving in an intensive outpatient rehabilitation program

The age of anxiety? It depends where you look: changes in STAI trait anxiety, 1970–2010

Purpose Population-level surveys suggest that anxiety has been increasing in several nations, including the USA and UK. We sought to verify the apparent anxiety increases by looking for systematic changes in mean anxiety questionnaire scores from research publications. Methods We analyzed all available mean State–Trait Anxiety Inventory scores published between 1970 and 2010. We collected 1703 samples, representing more than 205,000 participants from 57 nations. Results Results showed a significant anxiety increase worldwide, but the pattern was less clear in many individual nations. Our analyses suggest that any increase in anxiety in the USA and Canada may be limited to students, anxiety has decreased in the UK, and has remained stable in Australia. Conclusions Although anxiety may have increased worldwide, it might not be increasing as dramatically as previously thought, except in specific populations, such as North American students. Our results seem to contradict survey results from the USA and UK in particular. We do not claim that our results are more reliable than those of large population surveys. However, we do suggest that mental health surveys and other governmental sources of disorder prevalence data may be partially biased by changing attitudes toward mental health: if respondents are more aware and less ashamed of their anxiety, they are more likely to report it to survey takers. Analyses such as ours provide a useful means of double-checking apparent trends in large population surveys

Study protocol: a randomised controlled trial investigating the effect of exercise training on peripheral blood gene expression in patients with stable angina

Background: Exercise training has been shown to reduce angina and promote collateral vessel development in patients with coronary artery disease. However, the mechanism whereby exercise exerts these beneficial effects is unclear. There has been increasing interest in the use of whole genome peripheral blood gene expression in a wide range of conditions to attempt to identify both novel mechanisms of disease and transcriptional biomarkers. This protocol describes a study in which we will assess the effect of a structured exercise programme on peripheral blood gene expression in patients with stable angina, and correlate this with changes in angina level, anxiety, depression, and exercise capacity. Methods/Design: Sixty patients with stable angina will be recruited and randomised 1: 1 to exercise training or conventional care. Patients randomised to exercise training will attend an exercise physiology laboratory up to three times weekly for supervised aerobic interval training sessions of one hour in total duration. Patients will undergo assessments of angina, anxiety, depression, and peripheral blood gene expression at baseline, after six and twelve weeks of training, and twelve weeks after formal exercise training ceases. Discussion: This study will provide comprehensive data on the effect of exercise training on peripheral blood gene expression in patients with angina. By correlating this with improvement in angina status we will identify candidate peripheral blood transcriptional markers predictive of improvements in angina level in response to exercise training

A pilot randomised controlled trial investigating a mindfulness-based stress reduction (MBSR) intervention in individuals with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH): the PATHWAYS study

Background: Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is an uncommon condition with progressive heart failure and premature death. Treatment costs up to £120,000 per patient per year, and the psychological burden of PAH is substantial. Mindfulness-based stress reduction (MBSR) is an intervention with the potential to reduce this burden, but to date, it has not been applied to people with pulmonary hypertension. We wished to determine whether a trial of MBSR for people with PAH would be feasible. Methods: A customised gentle MBSR programme of eight sessions was developed for people with physical disability due to PAH, and they were randomised to group-based MBSR or treatment as usual. The completeness of outcome measures including Beck Anxiety Index, Beck Depression Inventory and standard physical assessment at 3 months after randomisation were recorded. Health care utilisation was measured. Attendance at the sessions and the costs involved in delivering the intervention were assessed. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to explore the acceptability of the MBSR intervention and when appropriate the reasons for trial non-participation. Results: Fifty-two patients were recruited, but only 34 were randomised due to patients finding it difficult to travel to sessions. Twenty-two completed all questionnaires and attended all clinics, both routine and additional in order to collect outcomes measures. The MSBR sessions were delivered in Bristol, Cardiff and London, costing, on average, between £2234 (Cardiff) and £4128 (London) per patient to deliver. Attendance at each session averaged between two patients in Bristol and Cardiff and three in London. For those receiving treatment as usual, clinician blinding was achievable. Interviews revealed that people who attended MBSR found it interesting and helpful in managing their symptoms and minimising the psychological component of their disease. Conclusions: We found that attendance at group MBSR was poor in people with chronic PAH within the context of a trial. Achieving better MBSR intervention attendance or use of an Internet-based programme might maximise the benefit of MBSR

Evaluation of Xpert® MTB/RIF and ustar easyNAT™ TB IAD for diagnosis of tuberculous lymphadenitis of children in Tanzania : a prospective descriptive study

Fine needle aspiration biopsy has become a standard approach for diagnosis of peripheral tuberculous lymphadenitis. The aim of this study was to compare the performance of Xpert MTB/RIF and Ustar EasyNAT TB IAD nucleic acid amplification assays, against acid-fast bacilli microscopy, cytology and mycobacterial culture for the diagnosis of TB lymphadenitis in children from a TB-endemic setting in Tanzania.; Children of 8 weeks to 16 years of age, suspected of having TB lymphadenitis, were recruited at a district hospital in Tanzania. Fine needle aspirates of lymph nodes were analysed using acid-fast bacilli microscopy, liquid TB culture, cytology, Xpert MTB/RIF and EasyNAT. Latent class analysis and comparison against a composite reference standard comprising "culture and/or cytology" was done, to assess the performance of Xpert MTB/RIF and EasyNAT for the diagnosis of TB lymphadenitis.; Seventy-nine children were recruited; 4 were excluded from analysis. Against a composite reference standard of culture and/or cytology, Xpert MTB/RIF and EasyNAT had a sensitivity and specificity of 58 % and 93 %; and 19 % and 100 % respectively. Relative to latent class definitions, cytology had a sensitivity of 100 % and specificity of 94.7 %.; Combining clinical assessment, cytology and Xpert MTB/RIF may allow for a rapid and accurate diagnosis of childhood TB lymphadenitis. Larger diagnostic evaluation studies are recommended to validate these findings and on Xpert MTB/RIF to assess its use as a solitary initial test for TB lymphadenitis in children

Internet-based, culturally sensitive, problem-solving therapy for turkish migrants with depression: Randomized controlled trial

Background: Turkish migrants living in the Netherlands have a high prevalence of depressive disorders, but experience considerable obstacles to accessing professional help. Providing easily accessible Internet treatments may help to overcome these barriers. Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of a culturally sensitive, guided, self-help, problem-solving intervention through the Internet for reducing depressive symptoms in Turkish migrants. Methods: A two-armed randomized controlled trial was conducted. The primary outcome measure was the severity of depressive symptoms; secondary outcome measures were somatic symptoms, anxiety, quality of life, and satisfaction with the treatment. Participants were assessed online at baseline, posttest (6 weeks after baseline), and 4 months after baseline. Posttest results were analyzed on the intention-to-treat sample. Missing values were estimated by means of multiple imputation. Differences in clinical outcome between groups were analyzed with a t test. Cohen's d was used to determine the between-groups effect size at posttreatment and follow-up. Results: Turkish adults (N=96) with depressive symptoms were randomized to the experimental group (n=49) or to a waitlist control group (n=47). High attrition rates were found among the 96 participants of which 42% (40/96) did not complete the posttest (6 weeks) and 62% (59/96) participants did not complete the follow-up assessment at 4 months. No significant difference between the experimental group and the control group was found for depression at posttest. Recovery occurred significantly more often in the experimental group (33%, 16/49) than in the control group (9%, 4/47) at posttest (P=.02). Because of the high attrition rate, a completers-only analysis was conducted at follow-up. The experimental group showed significant improvement in depression compared to the control group both at posttest (P=.01) and follow-up (P=.01). Conclusions: The results of this study did not show a significant effect on the reduction of depressive symptoms. However, the effect size at posttest was high, which might be an indicator of the possible effectiveness of the intervention when assessed in a larger sample and robust trial. Future research should replicate our study with adequately powered samples. © Burçin Ünlü Ince, Pim Cuijpers, Edith van 't Hof, Wouter van Ballegooijen, Helen Christensen, Heleen Riper