Snapshot Provisioning of Cloud Application Stacks to Face Traffic Surges

Traffic surges, like the Slashdot effect, occur when a web application is overloaded by a huge number of requests, potentially leading to unavailability. Unfortunately, such traffic variations are generally totally unplanned, of great amplitude, within a very short period, and a variable delay to return to a normal regime. In this report, we introduce PeakForecast as an elastic middleware solution to detect and absorb a traffic surge. In particular, PeakForecast can, from a trace of queries received in the last seconds, minutes or hours, to detect if the underlying system is facing a traffic surge or not, and then estimate the future traffic using a forecast model with an acceptable precision, thereby calculating the number of resources required to absorb the remaining traffic to come. We validate our solution by experimental results demonstrating that it can provide instantaneous elasticity of resources for traffic surges observed on the Japanese version of Wikipedia during the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in March 2011.Les pics de trafic, tels que l'effet Slashdot, apparaissent lorsqu'une application web doit faire face un nombre important de requêtes qui peut potentiellement entraîner une mise hors service de l'application. Malheureusement, de telles variations de traffic sont en général totalement imprévues et d'une grande amplitude, arrivent pendant une très courte période de temps et le retour à un régime normal prend un délai variable. Dans ce rapport, nous présentons PeakForecast qui est une solution intergicielle élastique pour détecter et absorber les pics de trafic. En particulier, PeakForecast peut, à partir des traces de requêtes reçues dans les dernières secondes, minutes ou heures, détecter si le système sous-jacent fait face ou non à un pic de trafic, estimer le trafic futur en utilisant un modèle de prédiction suffisamment précis, et calculer le nombre de ressources nécessaires à l'absorption du trafic restant à venir. Nous validons notre solution avec des résultats expérimentaux qui démontrent qu'elle fournit une élasticité instantanée des ressources pour des pics de trafic qui ont été observés sur la version japonaise de Wikipedia lors de l'accident nucléaire de Fukushima Daiichi en mars 2011

Development of oedema is associated with an improved glycaemic response in patients initiating thiazolidinediones: a MASTERMIND study

Abstracts of the 51st EASD Annual Meeting, Stockholm, Sweden, 14–18 September 2015This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer VerlagBackground and aims: Oedema is a common and serious side effect of thiazolidinedione therapy. A stratified medicines approach would aim to give thiazolidinediones to patients likely to have a good glycaemic response but to not develop oedema. We investigated whether oedema was associated with glycaemic response to thiazolidinedione therapy. Materials and methods: We retrospectively studied 11,459 patients initiating a thiazolidinedione from UK primary care data (Clinical Practice Research Datalink), and identified medical records of new oedema in the subsequent twelve months. Response was defined as change in HbA1c at twelve months and was adjusted for baseline HbA1c, baseline BMI, gender and compliance (medication possession ratio). In secondary analyses we restricted oedema classification to patients with concomitant weight gain. As a comparison the same analysis was performed in 13,089 patients initiating a sulfonylurea. Results: The 5% of patients with recorded oedema on thiazolidinediones had a mean (CI) 2.2 (1.1-3.2)mmol/mol greater fall in HbA1c (p3 kg (p< 0.001) and a 3.6 (1.8-5.4)mmol/mol greater fall when weight gain >5 kg (p3 kg (p=0.19). Conclusion: Patients with Type 2 diabetes who develop oedema on initiating thiazolidinediones have an improved glycaemic response, and more severe oedema may be associated with greater reductions in HbA1c. An association between oedema and glycaemic response was not observed in patients initiating sulfonylureas. This supports glycaemic lowering and fluid retention being mediated by a common pathway of thiazolidinedione drug action.Supported by: MRC grant MR-K005707-

Adherence to oral glucose-lowering therapies and associations with 1-year HbA_1c:A retrospective cohort analysis in a large primary care database

JOURNAL ARTICLEOBJECTIVE: The impact of taking oral glucose-lowering medicines intermittently, rather than as recommended, is unclear. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using community-acquired U.K. clinical data (Clinical Practice Research Database [CPRD] and GoDARTS database) to examine the prevalence of nonadherence to treatment for type 2 diabetes and investigate its potential impact on HbA1c reduction stratified by type of glucose-lowering medication. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Data were extracted for patients treated between 2004 and 2014 who were newly-prescribed metformin, sulfonylurea, thiazolidinedione, or dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors and who continued to obtain prescriptions over 1 year. Cohorts were defined by prescribed medication type, and good adherence was defined as a medication possession ratio ≥0.8. Linear regression was used to determine potential associations between adherence and 1-year baseline-adjusted HbA1c reduction. RESULTS: In CPRD and GoDARTS, 13% and 15% of patients, respectively, were nonadherent. Proportions of nonadherent patients varied by the oral glucose-lowering treatment prescribed (range 8.6% [thiazolidinedione] to 18.8% [metformin]). Nonadherent, compared with adherent, patients had a smaller HbA1c reduction (0.4% [4.4mmmol/mol] and 0.46% [5.0 mmol/mol] for CPRD and GoDARTs, respectively). Difference in HbA1c response for adherent compared with nonadherent patients varied by drug (range 0.38% [4.1 mmol/mol] to 0.75% [8.2 mmol/mol] lower in adherent group). Decreasing levels of adherence were consistently associated with a smaller reduction in HbA1c. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced medication adherence for commonly used glucose-lowering therapies among patients persisting with treatment is associated with smaller HbA1c reductions compared with those taking treatment as recommended. Differences observed in HbA1c responses to glucose-lowering treatments may be explained in part by their intermittent use.A.J.F. and R.R.H. are National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Senior Investigators and receive additional support from the Oxford NIHR Biomedical Research Centre. M.N.W. was supported by a Wellcome Trust Institutional Strategic Support Award (WT097835MF). E.R.P. holds a Wellcome Trust New Investigator award. The MASTERMIND consortium is funded by the U.K. Medical Research Council MR-K005707-1. The funder of the trial had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report

Patients who develop oedema on initiating thiazolidinedione therapy have an improved glycaemic response: a MASTERMIND study

Special Issue: Abstracts of the Diabetes UK Professional Conference 2015, ExCeL London, 11–13 March 2015This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from WileyBackground/aim: Oedema is a common and serious side effect ofthiazolidinedione therapy. A stratified medicine approach wouldaim to give thiazolidinediones to patients likely to have a goodglycaemic response but not to develop oedema. We investigatedwhether oedema was associated with glycaemic response tothiazolidinedione therapy.Methods: We studied 10,486 patients initiating a thiazolidinedionefrom Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), and identifiedmedical records of oedema in the subsequent 12 months. Responsewas defined as change in HbA1c at 12 months and was adjusted forbaseline HbA1c, baseline body mass index, gender and adherence(medication possession ratio). In secondary analyses we restrictedoedema classification to patients with concomitant weight gain. As acomparison the same analysis was performed in 13,089 patientsinitiating a sulfonylurea.Results: The 3% of patients with recorded oedema onthiazolidinediones had a mean (confidence interval) 3 (1.7–4.3)mmol/mol greater fall in HbA1c (p 3kg (p 8kg (p 3kg (p=0.19).Conclusion: Patients with Type 2 diabetes who develop oedemaon initiating thiazolidinediones have an improved glycaemicresponse, and more severe oedema is associated with greaterHbA1c reduction. This supports glycaemic lowering andfluid retention being mediated by a common pathway ofthiazolidinedione drug action

Predicting Distribution of Aedes Aegypti and Culex Pipiens Complex, Potential Vectors of Rift Valley Fever Virus in Relation to Disease Epidemics in East Africa.

The East African region has experienced several Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks since the 1930s. The objective of this study was to identify distributions of potential disease vectors in relation to disease epidemics. Understanding disease vector potential distributions is a major concern for disease transmission dynamics. DIVERSE ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELLING TECHNIQUES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED FOR THIS PURPOSE: we present a maximum entropy (Maxent) approach for estimating distributions of potential RVF vectors in un-sampled areas in East Africa. We modelled the distribution of two species of mosquitoes (Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex) responsible for potential maintenance and amplification of the virus, respectively. Predicted distributions of environmentally suitable areas in East Africa were based on the presence-only occurrence data derived from our entomological study in Ngorongoro District in northern Tanzania. Our model predicted potential suitable areas with high success rates of 90.9% for A. aegypti and 91.6% for C. pipiens complex. Model performance was statistically significantly better than random for both species. Most suitable sites for the two vectors were predicted in central and northwestern Tanzania with previous disease epidemics. Other important risk areas include western Lake Victoria, northern parts of Lake Malawi, and the Rift Valley region of Kenya. Findings from this study show distributions of vectors had biological and epidemiological significance in relation to disease outbreak hotspots, and hence provide guidance for the selection of sampling areas for RVF vectors during inter-epidemic periods

Study protocol: a randomised controlled trial investigating the effect of exercise training on peripheral blood gene expression in patients with stable angina

Background: Exercise training has been shown to reduce angina and promote collateral vessel development in patients with coronary artery disease. However, the mechanism whereby exercise exerts these beneficial effects is unclear. There has been increasing interest in the use of whole genome peripheral blood gene expression in a wide range of conditions to attempt to identify both novel mechanisms of disease and transcriptional biomarkers. This protocol describes a study in which we will assess the effect of a structured exercise programme on peripheral blood gene expression in patients with stable angina, and correlate this with changes in angina level, anxiety, depression, and exercise capacity. Methods/Design: Sixty patients with stable angina will be recruited and randomised 1: 1 to exercise training or conventional care. Patients randomised to exercise training will attend an exercise physiology laboratory up to three times weekly for supervised aerobic interval training sessions of one hour in total duration. Patients will undergo assessments of angina, anxiety, depression, and peripheral blood gene expression at baseline, after six and twelve weeks of training, and twelve weeks after formal exercise training ceases. Discussion: This study will provide comprehensive data on the effect of exercise training on peripheral blood gene expression in patients with angina. By correlating this with improvement in angina status we will identify candidate peripheral blood transcriptional markers predictive of improvements in angina level in response to exercise training

Childbearing postponement and child well-being: a complex and varied relationship?

Over the past several decades, U.S. fertility has followed a trend toward the postponement of motherhood. The socioeconomic causes and consequences of this trend have been the focus of attention in the demographic literature. Given the socioeconomic advantages of those who postpone having children, some authors have argued that the disadvantage experienced by certain groups would be reduced if they postponed their births. The weathering hypothesis literature, by integrating a biosocial perspective, complicates this argument and posits that the costs and benefits of postponement may vary systematically across population subgroups. In particular, the literature on the weathering hypothesis argues that as a consequence of their unique experiences of racism and disadvantage, African American women may experience a more rapid deterioration of their health, which could offset or eventually reverse any socioeconomic benefit of postponement. But because very few African American women postpone motherhood, efforts to find compelling evidence to support the arguments of this perspective rely on a strategy of comparison that is problematic because a potentially selected group of older black mothers are used to represent the costs of postponement. This might explain why the weathering hypothesis has played a rather limited role in the way demographers conceptualize postponement and its consequences for well-being. In order to explore the potential utility of this perspective, we turn our attention to the UK context. Because first-birth fertility schedules are similar for black and white women, we can observe (rather than assume) whether the meaning and consequences of postponement vary across these population subgroups. The results, obtained using linked UK census and birth record data, reveal evidence consistent with the weathering hypothesis in the United Kingdom and lend support to the arguments that the demographic literature would benefit from integrating insights from this biosocial perspective

Spatial heterogeneity of habitat suitability for Rift Valley fever occurrence in Tanzania: an ecological niche modelling approach

Despite the long history of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Tanzania, extent of its suitable habitat in the country remains unclear. In this study we investigated potential effects of temperature, precipitation, elevation, soil type, livestock density, rainfall pattern, proximity to wild animals, protected areas and forest on the habitat suitability for RVF occurrence in Tanzania. Presence-only records of 193 RVF outbreak locations from 1930 to 2007 together with potential predictor variables were used to model and map the suitable habitats for RVF occurrence using ecological niche modelling. Ground-truthing of the model outputs was conducted by comparing the levels of RVF virus specific antibodies in cattle, sheep and goats sampled from locations in Tanzania that presented different predicted habitat suitability values. Habitat suitability values for RVF occurrence were higher in the northern and central-eastern regions of Tanzania than the rest of the regions in the country. Soil type and precipitation of the wettest quarter contributed equally to habitat suitability (32.4% each), followed by livestock density (25.9%) and rainfall pattern (9.3%). Ground-truthing of model outputs revealed that the odds of an animal being seropositive for RVFV when sampled from areas predicted to be most suitable for RVF occurrence were twice the odds of an animal sampled from areas least suitable for RVF occurrence (95% CI: 1.43, 2.76, p < 0.001). The regions in the northern and central-eastern Tanzania were more suitable for RVF occurrence than the rest of the regions in the country. The modelled suitable habitat is characterised by impermeable soils, moderate precipitation in the wettest quarter, high livestock density and a bimodal rainfall pattern. The findings of this study should provide guidance for the design of appropriate RVF surveillance, prevention and control strategies which target areas with these characteristics

Quantitative phosphoproteome analysis of embryonic stem cell differentiation toward blood

Murine embryonic stem (ES) cells can differentiate in vitro into three germ layers (endodermic, mesodermic, ectodermic). Studies on the differentiation of these cells to specific early differentiation stages has been aided by an ES cell line carrying the Green Fluorescent Protein (GFP) targeted to the Brachyury (Bry) locus which marks mesoderm commitment. Furthermore, expression of the Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor receptor 2 (Flk1) along with Bry defines hemangioblast commitment. Isobaric-tag for relative and absolute quantification (iTRAQTM) and phosphopeptide enrichment coupled to liquid chromatography separation and mass spectrometry allow the study of phosphorylation changes occurring at different stages of ES cell development using Bry and Flk1 expression respectively. We identified and relatively quantified 37 phosphoentities which are modulated during mesoderm-induced ES cells differentiation, comparing epiblast-like, early mesoderm and hemangioblast-enriched cells. Among the proteins differentially phosphorylated toward mesoderm differentiation were: the epigenetic regulator Dnmt3b, the protein kinase GSK3b, the chromatin remodeling factor Smarcc1, the transcription factor Utf1; as well as protein specifically related to stem cell differentiation, as Eomes, Hmga2, Ints1 and Rif1. As most key factors regulating early hematopoietic development have also been implicated in various types of leukemia, understanding the post-translational modifications driving their regulation during normal development could result in a better comprehension of their roles during abnormal hematopoiesis in leukemia

INTERGROWTH-21st Gestational Dating and Fetal and Newborn Growth Standards in Peri-Urban Nairobi, Kenya: Quasi-Experimental Implementation Study Protocol.

BACKGROUND: The burden of preterm birth, fetal growth impairment, and associated neonatal deaths disproportionately falls on low- and middle-income countries where modern obstetric tools are not available to date pregnancies and monitor fetal growth accurately. The INTERGROWTH-21st gestational dating, fetal growth monitoring, and newborn size at birth standards make this possible. OBJECTIVE: To scale up the INTERGROWTH-21st standards, it is essential to assess the feasibility and acceptability of their implementation and their effect on clinical decision-making in a low-resource clinical setting. METHODS: This study protocol describes a pre-post, quasi-experimental implementation study of the standards at Jacaranda Health, a maternity hospital in peri-urban Nairobi, Kenya. All women with viable fetuses receiving antenatal and delivery services, their resulting newborns, and the clinicians caring for them from March 2016 to March 2018 are included. The study comprises a 12-month preimplementation phase, a 12-month implementation phase, and a 5-month post-implementation phase to be completed in August 2018. Quantitative clinical and qualitative data collected during the preimplementation and implementation phases will be assessed. A clinician survey was administered eight months into the implementation phase, month 20 of the study. Implementation outcomes include quantitative and qualitative analyses of feasibility, acceptability, adoption, appropriateness, fidelity, and penetration of the standards. Clinical outcomes include appropriateness of referral and effect of the standards on clinical care and decision-making. Descriptive analyses will be conducted, and comparisons will be made between pre- and postimplementation outcomes. Qualitative data will be analyzed using thematic coding and compared across time. The study was approved by the Amref Ethics and Scientific Review Committee (Kenya) and the Harvard University Institutional Review Board. Study results will be shared with stakeholders through conferences, seminars, publications, and knowledge management platforms. RESULTS: From October 2016 to February 2017, over 90% of all full-time Jacaranda clinicians (26/28) received at least one of the three aspects of the INTERGROWTH-21st training: gestational dating ultrasound, fetal growth monitoring ultrasound, and neonatal anthropometry standards. Following the training, implementation and evaluation of the standards in Jacaranda Health's clinical workflow will take place from March 2017 through March 5, 2018. Data analysis will be finalized, and results will be shared by August 2018. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study will have major implications on the national and global scale up of the INTERGROWTH-21st standards and on the process of scaling up global standards in general, particularly in limited-resource settings. REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER: RR1-10.2196/10293