Statistical process control of mortality series in the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) adult patient database: implications of the data generating process

for the ANZICS Centre for Outcome and Resource Evaluation (CORE) of the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS)BACKGROUND Statistical process control (SPC), an industrial sphere initiative, has recently been applied in health care and public health surveillance. SPC methods assume independent observations and process autocorrelation has been associated with increase in false alarm frequency. METHODS Monthly mean raw mortality (at hospital discharge) time series, 1995–2009, at the individual Intensive Care unit (ICU) level, were generated from the Australia and New Zealand Intensive Care Society adult patient database. Evidence for series (i) autocorrelation and seasonality was demonstrated using (partial)-autocorrelation ((P)ACF) function displays and classical series decomposition and (ii) “in-control” status was sought using risk-adjusted (RA) exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control limits (3 sigma). Risk adjustment was achieved using a random coefficient (intercept as ICU site and slope as APACHE III score) logistic regression model, generating an expected mortality series. Application of time-series to an exemplar complete ICU series (1995-(end)2009) was via Box-Jenkins methodology: autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and (G)ARCH ((Generalised) Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) models, the latter addressing volatility of the series variance. RESULTS The overall data set, 1995-2009, consisted of 491324 records from 137 ICU sites; average raw mortality was 14.07%; average(SD) raw and expected mortalities ranged from 0.012(0.113) and 0.013(0.045) to 0.296(0.457) and 0.278(0.247) respectively. For the raw mortality series: 71 sites had continuous data for assessment up to or beyond lag ₄₀ and 35% had autocorrelation through to lag ₄₀; and of 36 sites with continuous data for ≥ 72 months, all demonstrated marked seasonality. Similar numbers and percentages were seen with the expected series. Out-of-control signalling was evident for the raw mortality series with respect to RA-EWMA control limits; a seasonal ARMA model, with GARCH effects, displayed white-noise residuals which were in-control with respect to EWMA control limits and one-step prediction error limits (3SE). The expected series was modelled with a multiplicative seasonal autoregressive model. CONCLUSIONS The data generating process of monthly raw mortality series at the ICU level displayed autocorrelation, seasonality and volatility. False-positive signalling of the raw mortality series was evident with respect to RA-EWMA control limits. A time series approach using residual control charts resolved these issues.John L Moran, Patricia J Solomo

Associations of education with 30 year life course blood pressure trajectories: Framingham Offspring Study

Background: Education is inversely associated with cardiovascular disease incidence in developed countries. Blood pressure may be an explanatory biological mechanism. However few studies have investigated educational gradients in longitudinal blood pressure trajectories, particularly over substantial proportions of the life course. Study objectives were to determine whether low education was associated with increased blood pressure from multiple longitudinal assessments over 30 years. Furthermore, we aimed to separate antecedent effects of education, and other related factors, that might have caused baseline differences in blood pressure, from potential long-term effects of education on post-baseline blood pressure changes. Methods: The study examined 3890 participants of the Framingham Offspring Study (mean age 36.7 years, 52.0% females at baseline) from 1971 through 2001 at up to 7 separate examinations using multivariable mixed linear models. Results: Mixed linear models demonstrated that mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) over 30 years was higher for participants with ≤12 vs. ≥17 years education after adjusting for age (3.26 mmHg, 95% CI: 1.46, 5.05 in females, 2.26 mmHg, 95% CI: 0.87, 3.66 in males). Further adjustment for conventional covariates (antihypertensive medication, smoking, body mass index and alcohol) reduced differences in females and males (2.86, 95% CI: 1.13, 4.59, and 1.25, 95% CI: -0.16, 2.66 mmHg, respectively). Additional analyses adjusted for baseline SBP, to evaluate if there may be educational contributions to post-baseline SBP. In analyses adjusted for age and baseline SBP, females with ≤12 years education had 2.69 (95% CI: 1.09, 4.30) mmHg higher SBP over follow-up compared with ≥17 years education. Further adjustment for aforementioned covariates slightly reduced effect strength (2.53 mmHg, 95% CI: 0.93, 4.14). Associations were weaker in males, where those with ≤12 years education had 1.20 (95% CI: -0.07, 2.46) mmHg higher SBP over follow-up compared to males with ≥17 years of education, after adjustment for age and baseline blood pressure; effects were substantially reduced after adjusting for aforementioned covariates (0.34 mmHg, 95% CI: -0.90, 1.68). Sex-by-education interaction was marginally significant (p = 0.046). Conclusion: Education was inversely associated with higher systolic blood pressure throughout a 30-year life course span, and associations may be stronger in females than males.Eric B Loucks, Michal Abrahamowicz, Yongling Xiao, John W Lync

Fluid-structure interaction in abdominal aortic aneurysms: effects of asymmetry and wall thickness

BACKGROUND: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a prevalent disease which is of significant concern because of the morbidity associated with the continuing expansion of the abdominal aorta and its ultimate rupture. The transient interaction between blood flow and the wall contributes to wall stress which, if it exceeds the failure strength of the dilated arterial wall, will lead to aneurysm rupture. Utilizing a computational approach, the biomechanical environment of virtual AAAs can be evaluated to study the affects of asymmetry and wall thickness on this stress, two parameters that contribute to increased risk of aneurysm rupture. METHODS: Ten virtual aneurysm models were created with five different asymmetry parameters ranging from β = 0.2 to 1.0 and either a uniform or variable wall thickness to study the flow and wall dynamics by means of fully coupled fluid-structure interaction (FSI) analyses. The AAA wall was designed to have a (i) uniform 1.5 mm thickness or (ii) variable thickness ranging from 0.5 – 1.5 mm extruded normally from the boundary surface of the lumen. These models were meshed with linear hexahedral elements, imported into a commercial finite element code and analyzed under transient flow conditions. The method proposed was then compared with traditional computational solid stress techniques on the basis of peak wall stress predictions and cost of computational effort. RESULTS: The results provide quantitative predictions of flow patterns and wall mechanics as well as the effects of aneurysm asymmetry and wall thickness heterogeneity on the estimation of peak wall stress. These parameters affect the magnitude and distribution of Von Mises stresses; varying wall thickness increases the maximum Von Mises stress by 4 times its uniform thickness counterpart. A pre-peak systole retrograde flow was observed in the AAA sac for all models, which is due to the elastic energy stored in the compliant arterial wall and the expansion force of the artery during systole. CONCLUSION: Both wall thickness and geometry asymmetry affect the stress exhibited by a virtual AAA. Our results suggest that an asymmetric AAA with regional variations in wall thickness would be exposed to higher mechanical stresses and an increased risk of rupture than a more fusiform AAA with uniform wall thickness. Therefore, it is important to accurately reproduce vessel geometry and wall thickness in computational predictions of AAA biomechanics

Regular Khat (Catha edulis) chewing is associated with elevated diastolic blood pressure among adults in Butajira, Ethiopia: A comparative study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Fresh leaves and buds of the Khat plant (<it>Catha edulis</it>) contain Cathinone, an amphetamine like alkaloid responsible for its pharmacological action. Chewing of Khat has been associated with a transient rise in blood pressure and heart rate in experimental studies. Few studies examined the effect of regular or frequent Khat chewing on blood pressure at the population level. This study was conducted to examine the association of regular Khat chewing with blood pressure among adults.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We compared systolic and diastolic blood pressure of adults 35-65 years of age who reported regular chewing of Khat during the preceding five years to those who never chewed Khat during the same period. Study participants were recruited from purposively selected urban and rural villages of Butajira District in Ethiopia. The comparative groups, chewers (334) and non-chewers (330), were identified from among the general population through a house-to-house visit using a screening questionnaire. They were frequency-matched for sex and age within a five-year range. Data were collected through structured interviews and physical measurements including blood pressure, weight and height.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The prevalence of hypertension was significantly higher among Khat chewers (13.4%) than non-chewers (10.7%), odds ratio (OR) = 1.66 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05, 3.13). A considerably high proportion of chewers (29.9%) than non-chewers (20.6%) had sub-optimal diastolic blood pressure (> 80 mmHg). The mean (sd) diastolic blood pressure was significantly higher among Khat chewers [75.0 (11.6)] than non-chewers [72.9 (11.7)], P < 0.05. Similarly, Khat chewers had significantly higher mean (sd) heart rate [76.3 (11.5)] than non-chewers [73.9 (12.6)], P < 0.05. There was no significant difference in mean systolic blood pressure between the two groups.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Regular chewing of Khat is associated with elevated mean diastolic blood pressure, which is consistent with the peripheral vasoconstrictor effect of Cathinone. Regular Khat chewing may have sustained effects on the cardiovascular system that can contribute to elevated blood pressure at the population level.</p

Predicting site index from climate and soil variables for cork oak (Quercus suber L.) stands in Portugal

Site productivity, assessed through site index, was modelled using partial least squares regression as a function of soil and climatic variables. Two alternative models were developed: a full model, considering all available explanatory variables, and a reduced model, considering only variables that can be obtained without digging a soil pit. The reduced model was used for mapping the site index distribution in Portugal, on the basis of existing digital cartography available for the whole country. The developed models indicate the importance of water availability and soil water holding capacity for site index value distribution. Site index was related to climate, namely evaporation and frost, and soil characteristics such as lithology, soil texture, soil depth, thickness of the A horizon and soil classification. The variability of the estimated values within the map (9.5–16.8 m with an average value of 13.4 m) reflects the impact of soil characteristics on the site productivity estimation. These variables should be taken into consideration during the establishment of new plantations of cork oak, and management of existing plantations. Results confirm the potential distribution of cork oak in coastal regions. They also suggest the existence of a considerable area, located both North and South of the Tagus river, where site indices values of medium (]13;15]) to high (]15;17]) productivity classes may be expected. The species is then expected to be able to have good productivity along the northern coastal areas of Portugal, where presently it is not a common species but where, according to historical records, it occurred until the middle of the sixteenth century. The present research focused on tree growth. Cork growth and cork quality distribution needs to be further researched through the establishment of long term experimental sites along the distribution area of cork oak, namely in the central and northern coastal areas of the countryinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Understanding adolescent and young adult use of family physician services: a cross-sectional analysis of the Canadian Community Health Survey

BACKGROUND: Primary health care is known to have positive effects on population health and may reduce at-risk behavior and health problems in adolescence. Yet little is known about the factors that are associated with adolescent and young adult utilization of family physician services. It is critical to determine the factors associated with utilization to inform effective primary health care policy. We address this gap in the primary health care literature by examining three issues concerning adolescent and young adult family physician use: inequity; the unique developmental stage of adolescence; and the distinction between utilization (users versus non-users) and intensity (high users versus low users). METHODS: We conducted nested logistic regressions for two outcomes: utilization and intensity of family physician services for early adolescence, middle adolescence, and young adulthood using the 2005 Canadian Community Health Survey. RESULTS: Chronic conditions were associated with utilization in early and middle adolescence and intensity in all age groups. Respondents from Quebec had lower odds of utilization. Those without a regular medical doctor had much lower odds of being users. The factors associated with use in early and middle adolescence were in keeping with parental involvement while the factors in young adulthood show the emerging independence of this group. CONCLUSIONS: We highlight key messages not known previously for adolescent and young adult use of family physician services. There is inequity concerning regional variation and for those who do not have a regular medical doctor. There is variation in factors associated with family physician services across the three age groups of adolescence. Health care and health care policies aimed at younger adolescents must consider that parents are still the primary decision-maker while older adolescents are more autonomous. There is variation in the factors associated with the two outcomes of utilization and intensity of services. Factors associated with utilization must be understood when considering the equitability of access to primary health care while factors associated with intensity must be understood when considering appropriate use of resources. The understanding gained from this study can inform health care policy that is responsive to the critical developmental stage of adolescence and young adulthood

Dichrostachys cinerea (L.) Wight et Arn (Mimosaceae) hydro-alcoholic extract action on the contractility of tracheal smooth muscle isolated from guinea-pig

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p><it>Dichrostachys cinerea </it>(L.) Wight et Arn. (Mimosaceae) is largely used in ethno-medically across Africa, and mainly employed for the treatment of asthma in Ivory Coast and Gabon. The paper analyses the relaxation induced by the methanolic extract of <it>D. cinerea </it>(Edici) in the guinea-pig trachea preparations (GPTPs). Purpose: This study aimed to bring out the scientific basis to the use of this plant leading to the validation of this phytomedicine.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>The aorta obtained from guinea-pigs was immediately placed in a Mac Ewen solution. Experiments were performed in preparations suspended between two L-shaped stainless steel hooks in a 10 ml organ bath containing Mac Ewen solution. The isometric contractile force of the aorta strips of guinea-pig were recorded by using a strain gauge. The different drugs were directly administered into the organ bath and the magnitude of GPTPs was evaluated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Phytochemical analysis of the methanolic extract of Dichrostachys <it>cinerea </it>(Edici) using chemical methods revealed the presence of flavenoids, tannins, sterols, triterpenes and polyphenols. Pharmacological studies performed in GPTPs show that of <it>Dichrostachys cinerea </it>(0.1 mg/ml - 2 mg/ml) evoked a broncho-constriction in GPTPs. Whereas, at concentration up to 2 mg/ml, Edici induced a significant dose-dependent relaxation in the GPTPs. KCl-, ACh- or histamine-evoked contractions of isolated trachea was significantly inhibited by increasing concentrations of Edici (3.5-10 mg/ml). Edici (10 mg/ml) as well as promethazine (0.25 mg/ml) significantly inhibited contractions induced by increasing concentrations of histamine (1×10^-7-1×10^-4mg/ml). In the presence of atropine at a concentration of 10^-6mg/ml, contractile response curve (CRC) evoked by ACh (1×10^-5-1×10^-2mg/ml) was significantly abolished in concentration-dependent manner. Edici did not significantly reduced ACh evoked contraction (10^-5-10^-2mg/ml).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These observations suggest that Edici could act through two mechanisms: firstly by activation of β-adrenergic or histaminergic receptors; and secondly muscarinic receptors may not be greatly involved, that justifying the use of the extract in traditional Medicine in Africa.</p

Working conditions, self-perceived stress, anxiety, depression and quality of life: A structural equation modelling approach

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The relationships between working conditions [job demand, job control and social support]; stress, anxiety, and depression; and perceived quality of life factors [physical health, psychological wellbeing, social relationships and environmental conditions] were assessed using a sample of 698 male automotive assembly workers in Malaysia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The validated Malay version of the Job Content Questionnaire (JCQ), Depression Anxiety Stress Scales (DASS) and the World Health Organization Quality of Life-Brief (WHOQOL-BREF) were used. A structural equation modelling (SEM) analysis was applied to test the structural relationships of the model using AMOS version 6.0, with the maximum likelihood ratio as the method of estimation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The results of the SEM supported the hypothesized structural model (<it>χ</it>²= 22.801, <it>df </it>= 19, <it>p </it>= 0.246). The final model shows that social support (JCQ) was directly related to all 4 factors of the WHOQOL-BREF and inversely related to depression and stress (DASS). Job demand (JCQ) was directly related to stress (DASS) and inversely related to the environmental conditions (WHOQOL-BREF). Job control (JCQ) was directly related to social relationships (WHOQOL-BREF). Stress (DASS) was directly related to anxiety and depression (DASS) and inversely related to physical health, environment conditions and social relationships (WHOQOL-BREF). Anxiety (DASS) was directly related to depression (DASS) and inversely related to physical health (WHOQOL-BREF). Depression (DASS) was inversely related to the psychological wellbeing (WHOQOL-BREF). Finally, stress, anxiety and depression (DASS) mediate the relationships between job demand and social support (JCQ) to the 4 factors of WHOQOL-BREF.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These findings suggest that higher social support increases the self-reported quality of life of these workers. Higher job control increases the social relationships, whilst higher job demand increases the self-perceived stress and decreases the self-perceived quality of life related to environmental factors. The mediating role of depression, anxiety and stress on the relationship between working conditions and perceived quality of life in automotive workers should be taken into account in managing stress amongst these workers.</p

Comparative 3D QSAR study on β1-, β2-, and β3-adrenoceptor agonists

A quantitative structure–activity relationship study of tryptamine-based derivatives of β1-, β2-, and β3-adrenoceptor agonists was conducted using comparative molecular field analysis (CoMFA). Correlation coefficients (cross-validated r2) of 0.578, 0.595, and 0.558 were obtained for the three subtypes, respectively, in three different CoMFA models. All three CoMFA models have different steric and electrostatic contributions, implying different requirements inside the binding cavity. The CoMFA coefficient contour plots of the three models and comparisons among these plots provide clues regarding the main chemical features responsible for the biological activity variations and also result in predictions which correlate very well with the observed biological activity. Based on the analysis, a summary regeospecific description of the requirements for improving β-adrenoceptor subtype selectivity is given