Using Bayes Theorem to Quantify and Reduce Uncertainties when Monitoring Varying Marine Environments for Indications of a Leak

Monitoring the marine environment for leaks from geological storage projects is a challenge due to the variability of the environment and the extent of the area that migrating CO2 might seep through the seafloor. Due to the environmental risk associated leaks should not be allowed to continue undetected. There is also a cost issue since marine operations are expensive, so false alarms should be avoided. The main question is then: how large a deviation in the monitoring data should cause mobilization of confirmation and localization procedures? Here Baye’s theorem and Bayesian decision theory is suggested as a tool for quantifying certainties and to implement costs for false positives (false alarms) and false negatives (undetected leaks) in the decision procedure. The procedure is exemplified using modeled natural CO2 content variability and the predicted CO2 signal from a simulated leak

The Nordic Seas carbon budget: Sources, sinks, and uncertainties

A carbon budget for the Nordic Seas is derived by combining recent inorganic carbon data from the CARINA database with relevant volume transports. Values of organic carbon in the Nordic Seas' water masses, the amount of carbon input from river runoff, and the removal through sediment burial are taken from the literature. The largest source of carbon to the Nordic Seas is the Atlantic Water that enters the area across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge; this is in particular true for the anthropogenic CO2. The dense overflows into the deep North Atlantic are the main sinks of carbon from the Nordic Seas. The budget show that presently 12.3 ± 1.4 Gt C yr−1 is transported into the Nordic Seas and that 12.5 ± 0.9 Gt C yr−1 is transported out, resulting in a net advective carbon transport out of the Nordic Seas of 0.17 ± 0.06 Gt C yr−1. Taking storage into account, this implies a net air-to-sea CO2 transfer of 0.19 ± 0.06 Gt C yr−1 into the Nordic Seas. The horizontal transport of carbon through the Nordic Seas is thus approximately two orders of magnitude larger than the CO2 uptake from the atmosphere. No difference in CO2 uptake was found between 2002 and the preindustrial period, but the net advective export of carbon from the Nordic Seas is smaller at present due to the accumulation of anthropogenic CO2

Endometrial polyp-induced fallopian tube obstruction

Endometrial polyps are common non-cancerous growths in the uterine lining, leading to unusual bleeding and fertility issues. These generally lack symptoms, but can cause heavy periods, bleeding between cycles, and fertility struggles. Diagnostic methods include hysterosalpingography, hysteroscopy, and histopathological examination. This report covers a 30-year-old woman with irregular cycles and infertility for seven years, diagnosed with an endometrial polyp blocking the fallopian tubes. After a hysteroscopic polypectomy, she experienced symptom relief and her menstrual cycle normalized

Challenges Facing Agribusiness Sector in Lower Shawele Region, Somalia

Agribusiness is a big industry in Somalia country in rural and urban towns. It has been a challenge to manage this profitable business and the risks surrounding this field made it inefficient and non-profitable. This study focuses on agribusiness challenges including infrastructure gaps, financial constraints, humanitarian gabs, security patterns and the absence of government roles. The study employed and interviewed agricultural experts and small farmers and conducted observations in agricultural lands in the Lower Shebelle region. Agricultural experts who were interviewed addressed the problems faced by agro-business persons, including infrastructure gaps such as rough roads, non-functional irrigation systems, insecurity, floods, and labour force migrations that were specific negative impacts on the local communities. The harvested crops especially cash crops, perish during the wet seasons on the farm because of the inaccessibility of roads, which causes a delay in lead time and high transportation costs that result in exit farming to the urban lifestyle. The labour supply from rural households had decreased due to unemployment, insecurity, and land disputes between the domain clans and the local people resulting in clan conflicts in the region. These difficulties have been experienced for the last two decades, which impacted the decline of agri-businesses and agricultural productions, and escalated labour force migrations to the major cities also fuelled the displacements to urban towns. In addition to that, the Al-Shabaab, clan militias, and other unidentified persons imposed illegal double taxations levied on products that increased costs of production and finally caused high price margins and a decline in production capacity

Seasonal variations of hydrographic parameters off the Sudanese coast of the Red Sea, 2009–2015

© The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Regional Studies in Marine Science 18 (2018): 1-10, doi:10.1016/j.rsma.2017.12.004.The variations of temperature and salinity in the Sudanese coastal zone of the Red Sea are studied for the first time using measurements acquired from survey cruises during 2009–2013 and from a mooring during 2014–2015. The measurements show that temperature and salinity variability above the permanent pycnocline is dominated by seasonal signals, similar in character to seasonal temperature and salinity oscillations observed further north on the eastern side of the Red Sea. Using estimates of heat flux, circulation and horizontal temperature/salinity gradients derived from a number of sources, we determined that the observed seasonal signals of temperature and salinity are not the product of local heat and mass flux alone, but are also due to alongshore advection of waters with spatially varying temperature and salinity. As the temperature and salinity gradients, characterized by warmer and less saline water to the south, exhibit little seasonal variation, the seasonal salinity and temperature variations are closely linked to an observed seasonal oscillation in the along-shore flow, which also has a mean northward component. We find that the inclusion of the advection terms in the heat and mass balance has two principal effects on the computed temperature and salinity series. One is that the steady influx of warmer and less saline water from the south counteracts the long-term trend of declining temperatures and rising salinities computed with only the local surface flux terms, and produces a long-term steady state in temperature and salinity. The second effect is produced by the seasonal alongshore velocity oscillation and most profoundly affects the computed salinity, which shows no seasonal signal without the inclusion of the advective term. In both the observations and computed results, the seasonal salinity signal lags that of temperature by roughly 3 months.The SPS surveys were funded by the Norwegian Norad’s Program for Master Studies and organized by IMR–RSU in Port Sudan. The central Red Sea mooring data were acquired as part of a WHOI–KAUST collaboration funded by Award Nos. USA00001, USA00002, and KSA00011 to the WHOI by the KAUST in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The work of I. Skjelvan and A.M. Omar was partly supported by the Research Council of Norway through the MIMT Center for Research-based Innovation. This work is part of a Ph.D. project at GFI–UiB funded by the Norwegian Quota program

Initial Public Offering Effects on Volatility in US Stock Market

This paper aims to investigate the effect of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) on stock market volatility in the United States using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. The study utilizes daily data from January 2020 to October 2022 on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500) and IPO firms listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) their IPO dates during the same period. The GARCH model is employed to estimate the volatility of the S&P 500 index stock prices after the IPOs announcements during the first day, first five days, and first ten days. The study finds that IPOs significantly impact volatility in the US market, and the effect is more pronounced in the short term. We discovered that IPOs after their announcements during the first five days have a negative impact on other stock prices in the S&P500 index. The effects are stronger for the first day of initial public offering come to the market while there is a negative impact on the 10th day of IPOs in the market but it is not statistically significant. The downward-sloping demand curve hypothesis is supported by these findings. These results have important implications for investors, market regulators, and policymakers. Investors should be aware of the potential for increased volatility during periods of IPO activity and adjust their investment strategies accordingly. Market regulators may need to consider implementing measures to mitigate the impact of IPOs on market volatility. Policymakers may also need to consider the potential economic effects of IPOs and the associated increase in market volatility to ensure a stable and efficient stock market

The effect of personnel empowerment on organisational commitment: A case of Somali commercial banks

Personel güçlendirme ve örgütsel bağlılık, örgütsel etkinliğin artırılmasında kritik öneme sahip bir yönetim stratejisi olarak büyük ilgi görmüştür. Bu çalışma, Somali ticari bankaları örneğinde personel güçlendirmenin örgütsel bağlılık üzerindeki etkisini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Tanımlanan araştırma hedefleri doğrultusunda, nicel bir yaklaşım kullanılarak anket yoluyla toplanan veri kesitsel bir araştırma tasarımı tercih edilmiştir. Çalışma, Somali’deki 13 ticari bankada yönetici pozisyonundaki bireylere odaklanmış ve bankaların hem genel merkezinde hem de şubelerinde çalışan 264 yöneticiden veri toplanmıştır. Araştırma değişkenleri arasındaki ilişkileri incelemek için doğrusal ve çoklu regresyon analizleri kullanılmıştır. Çalışma, personel güçlendirmenin örgütsel bağlılık üzerinde anlamlı, pozitif etkileri olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Bu bağlamda çalışma elde edilen bulgulardan yola çıkarak, personel güçlendirme boyutlarından anlamlılık, özerklik ve etki boyutlarının duygusal bağlılık üzerinde anlamlı pozitif etkiye sahip olduğunu ve tersine yeterlilik boyutunun negatif bir etki gösterdiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Benzer şekilde; anlamlılık ve özerklik, devam bağlılığı ile istatistiksel olarak anlamlı pozitif bir ilişki göstermektedir. Ancak, yeterlilik ve etki boyutu, istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olmayan pozitif bir etki göstermektedir. Çalışmada, personel güçlendirmenin hiçbir boyutunun normatif bağlılık üzerinde anlamlı bir etki göstermediği ortaya konulmaktadır.Personnel empowerment and organizational commitment have received significant attention as a management strategy critical to improving organizational effectiveness. This study aims to reveal the effects of personnel empowerment on organizational commitment in the case of Somali commercial banks. In line with the established research objectives, a cross-sectional research design was used to collect data through a survey using a quantitative approach. The study targeted employees in managerial positions at 13 commercial banks in Somalia and collected data from 264 managers working at both headquarters and branches of the selected banks. Following the reliability analysis, the research employed linear and multiple regression analyses to examine the relationships among the research variables. The study found that personnel empowerment has significant positive effects on organizational commitment. Based on the result of personnel empowerment dimensions the findings reveal that meaning, autonomy and impact dimension has significant positive on affective commitment, and conversely the competence dimension shows a negative effect. Likewise, meaning and autonomy demonstrate a statistically significant positive relationship with continuance commitment. However, competence and impact dimension show a positive effect that is not statistically significant. The study found that none of the dimensions of personnel empowerment showed significant effects on normative commitment

The role of the Barents Sea in the Arctic climate system

Present global warming is amplified in the Arctic and accompanied by unprecedented sea ice decline. Located along the main pathway of Atlantic Water entering the Arctic, the Barents Sea is the site of coupled feedback processes that are important for creating variability in the entire Arctic air-ice-ocean system. As warm Atlantic Water flows through the Barents Sea, it loses heat to the Arctic atmosphere. Warm periods, like today, are associated with high northward heat transport, reduced Arctic sea ice cover, and high surface air temperatures. The cooling of the Atlantic inflow creates dense water sinking to great depths in the Arctic Basins, and ~60% of the Arctic Ocean carbon uptake is removed from the carbon-saturated surface this way. Recently, anomalously large ocean heat transport has reduced sea ice formation in the Barents Sea during winter. The missing Barents Sea winter ice makes up a large part of observed winter Arctic sea ice loss, and in 2050, the Barents Sea is projected to be largely ice free throughout the year, with 4°C summer warming in the formerly ice-covered areas. The heating of the Barents atmosphere plays an important role both in “Arctic amplification” and the Arctic heat budget. The heating also perturbs the large-scale circulation through expansion of the Siberian High northward, with a possible link to recent continental wintertime cooling. Large air-ice-ocean variability is evident in proxy records of past climate conditions, suggesting that the Barents Sea has had an important role in Northern Hemisphere climate for, at least, the last 2500 years

PVTx Properties of a Two-phase CO2 Jet from Ruptured Pipeline

Span and Wagner equation of state (SW EOS) have been used to investigate changes in the thermodynamic properties of CO2 during a depressurization process from a pipeline into marine environment. The process is assumed to be isenthalpic, as only the thermodynamic change at the moment of depressurization is considered. The calculations show that the depth location of the pipeline influences greatly the density, temperature and volume changes, because of the difference in the surrounding pressures. In general the two-phase area is reached at depths shallower than 600 meters, which yields for the Norwegian Continental Shelf, as it is mainly shallower than 500 meters depth. There is a rapid decrease in density in the two-phase area causing a rapid expansion in the volume of CO2 from 4 MPa to 1 MPa. At the shallowest depth considered (100m) the volume fraction consist almost entirely of gas, and the density change give a significant increase in volume.publishedVersio