Climate Policy Under Fat-Tailed Risk: An Application of Dice

Uncertainty plays a significant role in evaluating climate policy, and fat-tailed uncertainty may dominate policy advice. Should we make our utmost effort to prevent the arbitrarily large impacts of climate change under deep uncertainty? In order to answer to this question, we propose a new way of investigating the impact of (fat-tailed) uncertainty on optimal climate policy: the curvature of the optimal carbon tax against the uncertainty. We find that the optimal carbon tax increases as the uncertainty about climate sensitivity increases, but it does not accelerate as implied by Weitzman's Dismal Theorem. We find the same result in a wide variety of sensitivity analyses. These results emphasize the importance of balancing the costs of climate change against its benefits, also under deep uncertainty. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht

Memory development: implications for adults recalling childhood experiences in the courtroom

Adults frequently provide compelling, detailed accounts of early childhood experiences in the courtroom. Judges and jurors are asked to decide guilt or innocence based solely on these decades-old memories using 'common sense' notions about memory. However, these notions are not in agreement with findings from neuroscientific and behavioural studies of memory development. Without expert guidance, judges and jurors may have difficulty in properly adjudicating the weight of memory evidence in cases involving adult recollections of childhood experiences

Attentional WM is not necessarily specifically related with fluid intelligence: the case of smart children with ADHD symptoms.

Executive functions and, in particular, Attentional (active) Working Memory (WM) have been associated with fluid intelligence. The association contrasts with the hypothesis that children with ADHD exhibit problems with WM tasks requiring controlled attention and may have a good fluid intelligence. This paper examines whether children who are intelligent but present ADHD symptoms fail in attentional WM tasks. The latter result would be problematic for theories assuming the generality of a strict relationship between intelligence and WM. To study these issues, a battery of tests was administered to a group of 58 children who all displayed symptoms of ADHD. All children were between the age of 8 and 11 years, and were described by their teachers as smart. Children were compared to a control group matched for age, schooling, and gender. The battery included a test of fluid intelligence (Raven's Coloured Matrices), and a series of visuospatial WM tasks. Results showed that children with ADHD were high in intelligence but significantly lower than the controls in WM tasks requiring high attentional control, whereas there was no difference in WM tasks requiring low attentional control. Furthermore, only high attentional control WM tasks were significantly related to Raven's performance in the control group, whereas all WM tasks were similarly related in the ADHD group. It is concluded that performance in high attentional control WM tasks may be related to fluid intelligence, but also to a specific control component that is independent of intelligence and is poor in children with ADHD

The influence of postgraduate qualifications on educational identity formation of healthcare professionals

Demand for postgraduate qualifications in medical education can be judged by the increase in providers worldwide over the last two decades. However, research into the impact of such courses on identity formation of healthcare professionals is limited. This study investigates the influence of such programmes on graduates’ educational identities, practices and career progression. Informed by constructivist grounded theory (CGT), semi-structured interviews were conducted with 27 graduates (2008–2012) from one postgraduate programme, who were at different stages in their careers worldwide. The audio data were transcribed and analysed using a CGT approach. Participants enrolled in award-bearing medical education courses for various intrinsic and extrinsic reasons. The findings from this study highlight their development as educators, and educational researchers, leaders and learners, as their self-efficacy in educational practices and engagement in scholarly activities increased. Graduates attributed career progression to the qualification, with many being promoted into senior positions. They also described substantial performance attainments in the workplace. The findings contribute to understanding the complexity and nuances of educational identity formation of healthcare professionals. A qualification in medical education encouraged transformational changes and epistemological development as an educator. Awareness of these findings will inform both those considering enrolment and those supporting them of potential benefits of these programmes

Global economic impacts of climate variability and change during the 20th century

Estimates of the global economic impacts of observed climate change during the 20th century obtained by applying five impact functions of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) are separated into their main natural and anthropogenic components. The estimates of the costs that can be attributed to natural variability factors and to the anthropogenic intervention with the climate system in general tend to show that: 1) during the first half of the century, the amplitude of the impacts associated with natural variability is considerably larger than that produced by anthropogenic factors and the effects of natural variability fluctuated between being negative and positive. These non-monotonic impacts are mostly determined by the low-frequency variability and the persistence of the climate system; 2) IAMs do not agree on the sign (nor on the magnitude) of the impacts of anthropogenic forcing but indicate that they steadily grew over the first part of the century, rapidly accelerated since the mid 1970's, and decelerated during the first decade of the 21st century. This deceleration is accentuated by the existence of interaction effects between natural variability and natural and anthropogenic forcing. The economic impacts of anthropogenic forcing range in the tenths of percentage of the world GDP by the end of the 20th century; 3) the impacts of natural forcing are about one order of magnitude lower than those associated with anthropogenic forcing and are dominated by the solar forcing; 4) the interaction effects between natural and anthropogenic factors can importantly modulate how impacts actually occur, at least for moderate increases in external forcing. Human activities became dominant drivers of the estimated economic impacts at the end of the 20th century, producing larger impacts than those of low-frequency natural variability. Some of the uses and limitations of IAMs are discussed

Buses, cars, bicycles and walkers the influence of the type of human transport on the flight responses of waterbirds

One way to manage disturbance to waterbirds in natural areas where humans require access is to promote the occurrence of stimuli for which birds tolerate closer approaches, and so cause fewer responses. We conducted 730 experimental approaches to 39 species of waterbird, using five stimulus types (single walker, three walkers, bicycle, car and bus) selected to mimic different human management options available for a controlled access, Ramsar-listed wetland. Across species, where differences existed (56% of 25 cases), motor vehicles always evoked shorter flight-initiation distances (FID) than humans on foot. The influence of stimulus type on FID varied across four species for which enough data were available for complete cross-stimulus analysis. All four varied FID in relation to stimuli, differing in 4 to 7 of 10 possible comparisons. Where differences occurred, the effect size was generally modest, suggesting that managing stimulus type (e.g. by requiring people to use vehicles) may have species-specific, modest benefits, at least for the waterbirds we studied. However, different stimulus types have different capacities to reduce the frequency of disturbance (i.e. by carrying more people) and vary in their capacity to travel around important habita

Geographical ecology of dry forest tree communities in the West Indies

© 2018 The Authors. Journal of Biogeography Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd Aim: Seasonally dry tropical forest (SDTF) of the Caribbean Islands (primarily West Indies) is floristically distinct from Neotropical SDTF in Central and South America. We evaluate whether tree species composition was associated with climatic gradients or geographical distance. Turnover (dissimilarity) in species composition of different islands or among more distant sites would suggest communities structured by speciation and dispersal limitations. A nested pattern would be consistent with a steep resource gradient. Correlation of species composition with climatic variation would suggest communities structured by broad-scale environmental filtering. Location: The West Indies (The Bahamas, Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Lucia), Providencia (Colombia), south Florida (USA) and Florida Keys (USA). Taxon: Seed plants—woody taxa (primarily trees). Methods: We compiled 572 plots from 23 surveys conducted between 1969 and 2016. Hierarchical clustering of species in plots, and indicator species analysis for the resulting groups of sites, identified geographical patterns of turnover in species composition. Nonparametric analysis of variance, applied to principal components of bioclimatic variables, determined the degree of covariation in climate with location. Nestedness versus turnover in species composition was evaluated using beta diversity partitioning. Generalized dissimilarity modelling partitioned the effect of climate versus geographical distance on species composition. Results: Despite a set of commonly occurring species, SDTF tree community composition was distinct among islands and was characterized by spatial turnover on climatic gradients that covaried with geographical gradients. Greater Antillean islands were characterized by endemic indicator species. Northern subtropical areas supported distinct, rather than nested, SDTF communities in spite of low levels of endemism. Main conclusions: The SDTF species composition was correlated with climatic variation. SDTF on large Greater Antillean islands (Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba) was characterized by endemic species, consistent with their geological history and the biogeography of plant lineages. These results suggest that both environmental filtering and speciation shape Caribbean SDTF tree communities

Protein-Protein Fusion Catalyzed by Sortase A

Chimeric proteins boast widespread use in areas ranging from cell biology to drug delivery. Post-translational protein fusion using the bacterial transpeptidase sortase A provides an attractive alternative when traditional gene fusion fails. We describe use of this enzyme for in vitro protein ligation and report the successful fusion of 10 pairs of protein domains with preserved functionality — demonstrating the robust and facile nature of this reaction

Genetic Interactions between Chromosomes 11 and 18 Contribute to Airway Hyperresponsiveness in Mice

We used two-dimensional quantitative trait locus analysis to identify interacting genetic loci that contribute to the native airway constrictor hyperresponsiveness to methacholine that characterizes A/J mice, relative to C57BL/6J mice. We quantified airway responsiveness to intravenous methacholine boluses in eighty-eight (C57BL/6J X A/J) F2 and twenty-seven (A/J X C57BL/6J) F2 mice as well as ten A/J mice and six C57BL/6J mice; all studies were performed in male mice. Mice were genotyped at 384 SNP markers, and from these data two-QTL analyses disclosed one pair of interacting loci on chromosomes 11 and 18; the homozygous A/J genotype at each locus constituted the genetic interaction linked to the hyperresponsive A/J phenotype. Bioinformatic network analysis of potential interactions among proteins encoded by genes in the linked regions disclosed two high priority subnetworks - Myl7, Rock1, Limk2; and Npc1, Npc1l1. Evidence in the literature supports the possibility that either or both networks could contribute to the regulation of airway constrictor responsiveness. Together, these results should stimulate evaluation of the genetic contribution of these networks in the regulation of airway responsiveness in humans