The Belarus Economy: The Challenges of Stalled Reforms. wiiw Research Report No.413

Twenty-five years after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Belarus stands out as a special case in transition blending, on the one hand, signs of relative prosperity, socially oriented policies and sprouts of entrepreneurships and, on the other hand, remnants of the communist past. The core of the Belarusian economic model throughout most of this period was a combination of external rents and soft budget constraints on the state-owned part of the economy backed by a strong system of administrative control. In periods of favourable external conditions this mix provided for relatively high rates of economic growth and allowed the authorities to maintain a ‘social contract’ with the population targeting close to full employment. But this model also led to the persistent accumulation of a quasi-fiscal deficit which time and again came to the surface, and its subsequent monetisation provoked macroeconomic and currency turmoil. At present, Belarus’ economic model has run up against its limits and policy changes seem inevitable

Capital dynamics, global value chains, competitiveness and barriers to FDI and capital accumulation in the EU

The study analyses the relationships between capital dynamics, productivity, global value chains and foreign direct investment using panel data techniques. Among other results, we confirm the high importance of tangible and intangible ICT capital for productivity and GVC integration. We examine the extent of underinvestment in ICT in the EU relative to other major economies and identify bottlenecks for efficient capital allocation. The sluggish economic performance of the EU in the post-crisis period has been further challenged by the COVID-19 outbreak. Consolidating policy efforts to facilitate ICT investment, tackling the barriers to ICT adoption and broad-based digitalisation are critical for the EU in order to maintain a competitive edge and unlock new growth opportunities in the new normal.JRC.B.5 - Circular Economy and Industrial Leadershi

Productivity Drivers: Empirical Evidence on the Role of Digital Capital, FDI and Integration

There are marked differences in productivity dynamics between countries as well as industries, often leading to substantial performance gaps, such as the gap in labour productivity between the EU and the US. In this article, we use the 2019 release of the EU KLEMS database to look into the drivers of productivity. In particular, we analyse how different types of capital (including intangible capital), foreign direct investment, integration into global value chains and EU integration affect labour productivity. Key findings are that intangible Information and Communication Technology (ICT) capital is a strong driver of productivity both at sectoral and aggregate levels, even more so than tangible ICT capital. Furthermore, backward global value chain integration and EU integration are positively associated with labour productivity. Contrary to expectations, we do not find evidence of a productivity-enhancing effect of foreign direct investment. Finally, we estimate by how much the productivity gap between the EU and the US could be reduced through different ICT investment policies.JRC.B.5-Circular Economy and Industrial Leadershi

Characterising cycles exhibited by important financial sections in the South African economy

Abstract: Orientation: The 2007–2008 global financial crisis caused negative spillovers to the real economy of the United States as well as other economies across the world. Research purpose: The main aim of this article is to determine the cyclical characteristics of important South African financial sections. Motivation for the study: Financial cycles are complex, making them hard to measure and understand. This, in turn, makes financial cycles and the effect of fluctuations in financial cycles hard to predict and manage..

Inadequate Regional Financial Safety Nets Reflect Complacency

To the extent that financial contagion from the United States and the euro area crisis has occurred in Asia, this paper focuses on the importance of strengthening the regional financial safety nets. By conjecturing that efforts to prevent and manage a crisis are the essence of providing such safety nets, I argue that efforts made by ASEAN+3 officials, especially in the provision of liquidity support during a crisis, are far from adequate. The collapse of Lehman Brothers in the autumn of 2008 could be a game-changer in the global financial market, making the probability of financial contagion higher than ever before. Even with improved financial conditions and stronger regulations in ASEAN+3 member countries, contagion can and will strike. Making the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization more effective is therefore urgent and critical

Financial Cycles Around the World

The study analyses financial cycles based on a global sample of 34 advanced and developing countries over the period 1960Q1 to 2015Q4. We use dynamic factor models and state-space techniques to estimate financial cycles in credit, housing, bond and equity markets, as well as aggregate financial cycles for each country in the sample using a large number of variables conveying price, quantity and risk characteristics of respective markets. The analysis reveals the highly persistent and recurring nature of financial cycles, which tend to fluctuate at frequencies much lower than business cycles, 9‑15 years on average, and are indicative of major financial distress episodes. Our results point to notable intra-regional synchronisation, as well as nontrivial co-movement tendencies between European, American and Asian financial cycles. We also extract global and regional financial cycles, the former closely associated with the dynamics of the US T-bill rate and the VIX index, confirming the existence of common supranational factors governing the boom-bust dynamics of financial market activity around the world

Central, East and Southeast European countries in the global value chain network

The policy brief examines the position of Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) countries in the global value chain (GVC) network. Effective integration in global value chains has been recognised as one of the important ingredients of economic development. The analysis uses the multi-country inputoutput database recently developed by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, covering the period of 2005-2018, to construct and examine the topology of the GVC network focusing on the CESEE region. We show that the CESEE segment of the GVC network has a core-periphery structure with several sectoral clusters forming the closely intertwined core centred around Russia's mining, petroleum and metals industries, as well as the value-added linkages formed by Central European countries with Germany's automotive sector. While these specialisation patterns have intensified over time, the advanced CESEE countries have also managed to diversify their participation in regional value chains. At the same time, a large part of the CESEE region, particularly, the Western Balkans, remains only marginally integrated in the GVC network, calling for additional policy efforts to boost their competitiveness and unlock the potential for a more intensive participation in cross-border production sharing in the region

Estimation of Aggregate and Segment-specific Financial Cycles for a Global Sample of Countries

The paper reports estimation results and technical details on the estimation of financial cycles for a global sample of 34 advanced and developing countries over the period 1960Q1–2015Q4, as well as introduces a database of financial cycles. We estimate several versions of financial cycles for credit, housing, bond and equity markets as well as aggregate financial cycles for each country in the sample. To this end we use stationary and non-stationary dynamic factor models and state-space techniques to extract financial cycles as a common factor from a large number of variables conveying price, quantity and risk characteristics of financial markets

The information and communication technology cluster in the global value chain network

Global value chains (GVCs) are among the critical factors shaping the world economy nowadays. Within cross-border production networks an increasingly important role has been played by the information and communication technology (ICT) sectors. Based on the multi-country input-output database recently developed by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, covering the period 2005-2018, this policy brief examines the structure and the dynamics of global value chains associated with the ICT sectors. To this end we use complex network analysis techniques to characterise the overall topology of the international ICT cluster in the GVC network, identify the key countries and sectors therein from the perspective of their connectivity. The analysis shows that the ICT GVC network is dominated by the mutual value-added trade linkages between China, South Korea and Taiwan in the Computers and electronics manufacturing sector. These sectors are heavily interlinked via backward and forward GVC linkages with a large number of ICT and non-ICT sectors, many of which are located in the USA, China and Germany. In the recent decade, there has been a major shift in terms of importance to the GVC network from ICT manufacturing towards ICT services, especially prominent for the ICT services sector in Ireland, which has become among the most interconnected sectors in the global ICT cluster