Sleepy Markets and the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift – A Study on the Nordic Stock Markets during 2014–2022

This study presents results on the phenomenon of post earnings announcement drift (PEAD) in the Nordic countries during January 2014 to December 2022, regarding its existence and the possibility of successfully building a long-short trading strategy. Although the phenomenon has been extensively researched in international markets, the Nordic countries as a whole has interestingly enough not been thoroughly examined. The results indicate that the drift e↵ect is evident in the evaluated sample of the companies listed on the Nordic stock markets through holding periods of 3, 6, and 12 months following the announcement date. Excess return is surprisingly found in both the LONG and SHORT positions throughout all time-periods, however a HEDGE position holding the return spread of the LONG and SHORT positions did not generate abnormal returns. Utilizing the three-factor model of Fama and French (1993) controlling for risk-factors finds that returns are robust to risk- factors on the shorter time frames, but can partly be explained by the value factor on the 12 month time frame

Un modèle économétrique de l'agriculture française (MAGALI)

MAGALI is an econometric model for French agriculture designed for mid-term agricultural policy analysis. It provides explanation for supply of 27 agricultural products, their corresponding inputs and farm accounts, in order to determine farm income level. It also describes structural change of the agricultural sector through demography and investment. The main characteristics of the French farm sector evolution are well-known. The sluggish growth of the seventies has resulted in low investment, slow growth of individual income, and even decrease of total farm sector income, since 1977. Several explanations can be put forward : general economic conditions, worsened by weather accidents, or structural unfitness of French agriculture to market et requirements. Trough dynamic simulations on the past, MAGALI can try to distinguish these various effects. These simulations should clearly point out that MAGALI is mainly built for agricultural policy analysis (in the past or future), particularly through exogenous prices. They also confirm the high sensitivity of French agriculture to price changes and particularly to the « terms of trade » with the non-farm sector

Un modèle économétrique de l'agriculture française (MAGALI)

MAGALI is an econometric model for French agriculture designed for mid-term agricultural policy analysis. It provides explanation for supply of 27 agricultural products, their corresponding inputs and farm accounts, in order to determine farm income level. It also describes structural change of the agricultural sector through demography and investment. The main characteristics of the French farm sector evolution are well-known. The sluggish growth of the seventies has resulted in low investment, slow growth of individual income, and even decrease of total farm sector income, since 1977. Several explanations can be put forward : general economic conditions, worsened by weather accidents, or structural unfitness of French agriculture to market et requirements. Trough dynamic simulations on the past, MAGALI can try to distinguish these various effects. These simulations should clearly point out that MAGALI is mainly built for agricultural policy analysis (in the past or future), particularly through exogenous prices. They also confirm the high sensitivity of French agriculture to price changes and particularly to the « terms of trade » with the non-farm sector

Maîtriser l'offre de lait : le cas français, à travers les simulations du modèle MAGALI

The MAGALI model was built mostly to test alternative price policies, their influence on supply of the various commodities. In the short-term, structural situations are rigid and constrain short-term supply. On account of the inertia of the French production setup, price policies appear poorly suited to bring about a rapid response to an over-supply. Drastic price reductions would be needed to obtain production adjustments within acceptable time-lags. Such reductions would often be politically unbearable on account of their income effects and they could durably affect the French production capacity. These policies are compared with production quotas in the case of milk

Une représentation macroéconomique de l'agriculture française : Maalt (projections 1990 et variantes)

An econometric model of the French agricultural sector was estimated at the aggregate level over the 1959-1982 period. It explains investment, labor force, capital, purchases and final product. Labor productivity and income indicators are derived (using value added). The estimation procedure used econometric techniques for the factor derived demand equations. The production function is a Cobb Douglas with elasticities set at the observed leveJ of factor shares in the seventies. Projections to the 1990 horizon were made under various assumptions of farm prices and input costs. For the base run reasonnably optimist price changes were chosen. However they lead to a slow down for aggregate product, investment and farm purchases growth. Similarly the labor force decreases at slightly slower rate. The income per head indicator is the only one to grow at a rate comparable to the seventies. Simulation runs showed the sensitivity of the endogenous variables, particularly income per head to farm prices and input costs (except for labor force). Retrospective simulation runs were performed in order to give an overall estimation of the consequences of the crisis on the farm sector. They appear to be quite large as expected, and they have been aggravated by the negative MCA's. The productive capacity of the sector seems to have been undermined by the sluggish economy and the future of the sector turns out to depend more on macroeconomic policies than on strictly agricultural policies

Maîtriser l'offre de lait : le cas français, à travers les simulations du modèle MAGALI

The MAGALI model was built mostly to test alternative price policies, their influence on supply of the various commodities. In the short-term, structural situations are rigid and constrain short-term supply. On account of the inertia of the French production setup, price policies appear poorly suited to bring about a rapid response to an over-supply. Drastic price reductions would be needed to obtain production adjustments within acceptable time-lags. Such reductions would often be politically unbearable on account of their income effects and they could durably affect the French production capacity. These policies are compared with production quotas in the case of milk

Mismatched anti-predator behavioral responses in predator-naïve larval anurans

Organisms are adept at altering behaviors to balance the tradeoff between foraging and predation risk in spatially and temporally shifting predator environments. In order to optimize this tradeoff, prey need to be able to display an appropriate response based on degree of predation risk. To be most beneficial in the earliest life stages in which many prey are vulnerable to predation, innate anti-predator responses should scale to match the risk imposed by predators until learned anti-predator responses can occur. We conducted an experiment that examined whether tadpoles with no previous exposure to predators (i.e., predator-naive) exhibit innate antipredator behavioral responses (e.g., via refuge use and spatial avoidance) that match the actual risk posed by each predator. Using 7 treatments (6 free-roaming, lethal predators plus no-predator control), we determined the predation rates of each predator on Lithobates sphenocephalus tadpoles. We recorded behavioral observations on an additional 7 nonlethal treatments (6 caged predators plus no-predator control). Tadpoles exhibited innate responses to fish predators, but not non-fish predators, even though two non-fish predators (newt and crayfish) consumed the most tadpoles. Due to a mismatch between innate response and predator consumption, tadpoles may be vulnerable to greater rates of predation at the earliest life stages before learning can occur. Thus, naïve tadpoles in nature may be at a high risk to predation in the presence of a novel predator until learned anti-predator responses provide additional defenses to the surviving tadpoles.ECU Open Access Publishing Support Fun

Does a complex life cycle affect adaptation to environmental change? Genome-informed insights for characterizing selection across complex life cycle

Complex life cycles, in which discrete life stages of the same organism differ in form or function and often occupy different ecological niches, are common in nature. Because stages share the same genome, selective effects on one stage may have cascading consequences through the entire life cycle. Theoretical and empirical studies have not yet generated clear predictions about how life cycle complexity will influence patterns of adaptation in response to rapidly changing environments or tested theoretical predictions for fitness trade-offs (or lack thereof) across life stages. We discuss complex life cycle evolution and outline three hypotheses-ontogenetic decoupling, antagonistic ontogenetic pleiotropy and synergistic ontogenetic pleiotropy-for how selection may operate on organisms with complex life cycles. We suggest a within-generation experimental design that promises significant insight into composite selection across life cycle stages. As part of this design, we conducted simulations to determine the power needed to detect selection across a life cycle using a population genetic framework. This analysis demonstrated that recently published studies reporting within-generation selection were underpowered to detect small allele frequency changes (approx. 0.1). The power analysis indicates challenging but attainable sampling requirements for many systems, though plants and marine invertebrates with high fecundity are excellent systems for exploring how organisms with complex life cycles may adapt to climate change