Alternative models for measuring temporal trends in incidence and mortality rates

The average percent change (APC) is often used to measure temporal trends. Under the assumption of linearity on the logarithmic scale, the APC is estimated by using a generalized linear model. A serious limitation of least-squares type estimators is their sensitivity to outliers. The goal of this study is two-fold: firstly, we propose a robust and easy-to-compute measure of the temporal trend based on the median of the rates (median percent change - MPC), rather than their mean; secondly, we investigate the performance of several models for estimating the rate of change when some of the most common model assumptions are violated. We provide some general guidance on the practices of the estimation of temporal trends when using different models under different circumstances. Also, we analyzed an English cancer registration dataset to illustrate the proposed method. The MPC provides a robust alternative to APC. We believe that, as a good practice, both APC and MPC should be presented when sensitivity issues arise. The modelling of data subsets, in any case, should reflect the peculiarity of the process from where the dataset has originated

The potential for land sparing to offset greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture

Greenhouse gas emissions from global agriculture are increasing at around 1% per annum, yet substantial cuts in emissions are needed across all sectors. The challenge of reducing agricultural emissions is particularly acute, because the reductions achievable by changing farming practices are limited and are hampered by rapidly rising food demand. Here we assess the technical mitigation potential offered by land sparing-increasing agricultural yields, reducing farm land area and actively restoring natural habitats on the land spared. Restored habitats can sequester carbon and can offset emissions from agriculture. Using the United Kingdom as an example, we estimate net emissions in 2050 under a range of future agricultural scenarios. We find that a land-sparing strategy has the technical potential to achieve significant reductions in net emissions from agriculture and land-use change. Coupling land sparing with demand-side strategies to reduce meat consumption and food waste can further increase the technical mitigation potential, however economic and implementation considerations might limit the degree to which this technical potential could be realised in practice.This research was funded by the Cambridge Conservation Initiative Collaborative Fund for Conservation and we thank its major sponsor Arcadia. We thank J. Bruinsma for the provision of demand data, the CEH for the provision of soil data and J. Spencer for invaluable discussions. A.L. was supported by a Gates Cambridge Scholarship.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Publishing Group via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate291

An analysis of potential barriers and enablers to regulating the television marketing of unhealthy foods to children at the state government level in Australia

Background In Australia there have been many calls for government action to halt the effects of unhealthy food marketing on children\u27s health, yet implementation has not occurred. The attitudes of those involved in the policy-making process towards regulatory intervention governing unhealthy food marketing are not well understood. The objective of this research was to understand the perceptions of senior representatives from Australian state and territory governments, statutory authorities and non-government organisations regarding the feasibility of state-level government regulation of television marketing of unhealthy food to children in Australia.Method Data from in-depth semi-structured interviews with senior representatives from state and territory government departments, statutory authorities and non-government organisations (n=22) were analysed to determine participants\u27 views about regulation of television marketing of unhealthy food to children at the state government level. Data were analysed using content and thematic analyses.Results Regulation of television marketing of unhealthy food to children was supported as a strategy for obesity prevention. Barriers to implementing regulation at the state level were: the perception that regulation of television advertising is a Commonwealth, not state/territory, responsibility; the power of the food industry and; the need for clear evidence that demonstrates the effectiveness of regulation. Evidence of community support for regulation was also cited as an important factor in determining feasibility.Conclusions The regulation of unhealthy food marketing to children is perceived to be a feasible strategy for obesity prevention however barriers to implementation at the state level exist. Those involved in state-level policy making generally indicated a preference for Commonwealth-led regulation. This research suggests that implementation of regulation of the television marketing of unhealthy food to children should ideally occur under the direction of the Commonwealth government. However, given that regulation is technically feasible at the state level, in the absence of Commonwealth action, states/territories could act independently. The relevance of our findings is likely to extend beyond Australia as unhealthy food marketing to children is a global issue.<br /

Scanpath analysis of expertise and culture in teacher gaze in real-world classrooms

Humans are born to learn by understanding where adults look. This is likely to extend into the classroom, making teacher gaze an important topic for study. Expert teacher gaze has mainly been investigated in the laboratory, and has focused mostly on one cognitive process: teacher attentional (i.e., information-seeking) gaze. No known research has made direct cultural comparisons of teacher gaze or successfully found expert–novice differences outside Western settings. Accordingly, we conducted a real-world study of expert teacher gaze across two cultural settings, exploring communicative (i.e., information-giving) as well as attentional gaze. Forty secondary school teachers wore eye-tracking glasses, with 20 teachers (10 expert; 10 novice) from the UK and 20 teachers (10 expert; 10 novice) from Hong Kong. We used a novel eye-tracking scanpath analysis to ascertain the importance of expertise and culture, individually and as a combination. Attentional teacher scanpaths were significantly more similar within than across expertise and expertise + culture sub-groups; communicative scanpaths were significantly more similar within than across expertise and culture. Detailed analysis suggests that (1) expert teachers refer back to students constantly through focused gaze during both attentional and communicative gaze and that (2) expert teachers in Hong Kong scan students more than experts do in the UK

Developing international business relationships in a Russian context

The collapse of the former Soviet Union has opened up a wealth of business opportunities for companies seeking new markets in the Russian Federation. Despite this, firms intending to do business in Russia have found themselves hampered by cultural differences in business practices and expectations. As Russia integrates into the global economy, understanding such practices and the managerial mindset of business people is crucial for managers who hope to navigate Russia's complex markets. This study draws on the trust literature and adopts quantitative tools to deconstruct the Russian 'Sviazi' system of social capital business networking. We develop a model isolating three dimensions of Sviazi: one an affective or emotional component; the second, a conative component; and the third, a cognitive component. The model provides a useful guide for helping foreign firms to succeed in Russia, while also serving as a basis for further research in the field. Keywords

Geographical and temporal distribution of cancer survival in teenagers and young adults in England

Background:Between 1979 and 2001, an analysis of cancer survival in young people in England, aged 13 to 24 years, showed overall improvements. However, for some diagnostic groups, little or no increases were observed. The aim of this study was to analyse the regional distribution of cancer survival in teenagers and young adults in England in order to identify patterns and potential for improvements at a regional scale.Methods:We examined geographical and temporal patterns in relative survival in cancer patients aged 13-24 years in England during the time period 1979-2001. Cancer cases were grouped according to an internationally recognised morphology-based diagnostic scheme.Results:For most diagnostic groups, there was little variation in survival between regions, except for testicular germ cell tumours (P0.006) and colorectal carcinoma (P0.002). For certain diagnostic groups, the temporal pattern in survival differed between regions. However, in regions that showed poor survival during the early part of the study period, greatest improvements were observed in groups such as acute lymphoid leukaemia, acute myeloid leukaemia, testicular tumours and melanoma.Conclusion:In conclusion, there was a reduction in the differences in survival between regions during the study period. © 2009 Cancer Research UK

Survival from cancer in teenagers and young adults in England, 1979–2003

Cancer is the leading cause of disease-related death in teenagers and young adults aged 13–24 years (TYAs) in England. We have analysed national 5-year relative survival among more than 30 000 incident cancer cases in TYAs. For cancer overall, 5-year survival improved from 63% in 1979–84 to 74% during 1996–2001 (P<0.001). However, there were no sustained improvements in survival over time among high-grade brain tumours and bone and soft tissue sarcomas. Survival patterns varied by age group (13–16, 17–20, 21–24 years), sex and diagnosis. Survival from leukaemia and brain tumours was better in the youngest age group but in the oldest from germ-cell tumours (GCTs). For lymphomas, bone and soft tissue sarcomas, melanoma and carcinomas, survival was not significantly associated with age. Females had a better survival than males except for GCTs. Most groups showed no association between survival and socioeconomic deprivation, but for leukaemias, head and neck carcinoma and colorectal carcinoma, survival was significantly poorer with increasing deprivation. These results will aid the development of national specialised service provision for this age group and identify areas of clinical need that present the greatest challenges

Rates of inclusion of teenagers and young adults in England into National Cancer Research Network clinical trials: Report from the National Cancer Research Institute (NCRI) Teenage and Young Adult Clinical Studies Development Group

Poor inclusion rates into clinical trials for teenagers and young adults (TYA; aged 13–24 years) have been assumed but not systematically investigated in England. We analysed accrual rates (AR) from 1 April 2005 up to 31 March 2007 to National Cancer Research Network (NCRN) Phase III trials for the commonest tumour types occurring in TYA and children: leukaemia, lymphoma, brain and central nervous system, bone sarcomas and male germ cell tumours. AR for 2005–2007 were 43.2% for patients aged 10–14 years, 25.2% for patients aged 15–19 years, and 13.1% for patients aged 20–24 years in the tumour types analysed. Compared with accrual from 1 April 2005 to 31 March 2006, AR between 1 April 2006 and 31 March 2007 increased for those aged 10–14 and 15–19 years, but fell for those aged 20–24 years. AR varied considerably among cancer types. Despite four trials being available, patients over 16 years with central nervous system tumours were not recruited. Rates of participation in clinical trials in England from 2005 to 2007 were much lower for TYA older than 15 years compared with children and younger teenagers. The variations in open trials, trial age eligibility criteria and extent of trial activation in treatment centres in part explain this observation. Other possible influences, such as difficulties associated with the consent of TYA require further evaluation. Closer dialogue between those involved in planning and running trials for children and for adults is necessary to improve trial availability and recruitment. Further research is required to identify trends in trial availability and accrual for those tumours constituting the remaining 26% of TYA cancers